Farm program · 2026 and 2027 crop years

ARC or PLC for 2026 and 2027: decision calculator

By Sigurd Lindquist, a Certified Crop Adviser (CCA).

Find your county’s short answer

Quick answer. By our math from final USDA prices, the 2027 PLC effective reference prices are $4.34 for corn, $10.62 for soybeans and $6.35 for wheat (2026: $4.42, $10.71, $6.35). PLC pays if the national season-average price ends below that. ARC-CO pays when county revenue falls below 90% of its benchmark. The 2026 signup closes Dec 11, 2026; the 2027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.

For a typical farm, 2026 corn, across 2,967 county and practice combinations: pick ARC-CO 0, leans ARC-CO 2,521, close 446, leans PLC 0, pick PLC 0. Your own PLC yield moves the answer; the calculator below gives yours, with the expected payments. How this is figured.

FSA’s official ARC-CO benchmark yields for program year 2026 (FSA file as of Jan 16, 2026) cover 2,772 counties.

Pick the year, crop and county, type your PLC yield, and set a price. The table shows which program pays more per base acre across a range of prices and county yields. It does not forecast the price. You set it.

Run your farm’s numbers

Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.

From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.

On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.

Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.

County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.

USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.

Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.

Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.

When is the ARC/PLC signup for 2026 and 2027?

2026 and 2027 effective reference prices

Crop2026 ERP2027 ERP (est.)2026 ARC price2027 ARC price (est.)Statutory nowBefore 2025Loan rate
Corn$4.42$4.34$5.03$4.96$4.10$3.70$2.42
Soybeans$10.71$10.62$12.17$12.11$10.00$8.40$6.82
Wheat$6.35$6.35$6.98$6.98$6.35$5.50$3.72

$ per bushel. ERP = PLC effective reference price. ARC price = ARC-CO benchmark price. Est. = our math from final USDA prices; FSA publishes the official 2027 figures. 2026 figures match those published by FSA-based sources and FSA’s 2026 county file.

Show the math for 2027

The effective reference price is the lesser of 115% of the statutory price, or the greater of the statutory price and 88% of the Olympic average season-average price for the five most recent crop years (2021 to 2025 for 2027; 2020 to 2024 for 2026).

Corn. Season-average prices 2021: $6.00 · 2022: $6.54 (dropped) · 2023: $4.55 · 2024: $4.24 · 2025: $4.16 (dropped) (struck: the high and low year). Average of the middle three: $4.9300. 88% of that is $4.34, above the $4.10 statutory price and under the $4.72 cap (115%).

Soybeans. Season-average prices 2021: $13.30 · 2022: $14.20 (dropped) · 2023: $12.40 · 2024: $10.00 (dropped) · 2025: $10.50 (struck: the high and low year). Average of the middle three: $12.0667. 88% of that is $10.62, above the $10.00 statutory price and under the $11.50 cap (115%).

Wheat. Season-average prices 2021: $7.63 · 2022: $8.83 (dropped) · 2023: $6.96 · 2024: $5.52 · 2025: $5.06 (dropped) (struck: the high and low year). Average of the middle three: $6.7033. 88% of the average is $5.90, below the $6.35 statutory price, so the statutory price holds: $6.35.

The ARC-CO benchmark price uses the same five years, with any year below the 2027 effective reference price raised to it:

Corn. 2021: $6.00 · 2022: $6.54 · 2023: $4.55 · 2024: $4.34 (raised from $4.24) · 2025: $4.34 (raised from $4.16). Drop the high ($6.54) and low ($4.34); the middle three average $4.96.

Soybeans. 2021: $13.30 · 2022: $14.20 · 2023: $12.40 · 2024: $10.62 (raised from $10.00) · 2025: $10.62 (raised from $10.50). Drop the high ($14.20) and low ($10.62); the middle three average $12.11.

Wheat. 2021: $7.63 · 2022: $8.83 · 2023: $6.96 · 2024: $6.35 (raised from $5.52) · 2025: $6.35 (raised from $5.06). Drop the high ($8.83) and low ($6.35); the middle three average $6.98.

Every other covered crop

FSA’s 2026 tables, in FSA’s own units (dollars per bushel or per pound). Each crop has a page with its county benchmarks.

CropUnit2026 ERP2027 ERP2026 ARC priceStatutoryLoan rateUSDA proj. 2026/27
Sorghumbu$4.67waits on 2025/26 price$5.30$4.40$2.42$4.50
Barleybu$5.58$5.62 est.$6.43$5.45$2.75$5.70
Oatsbu$3.05$3.05 est.$3.94$2.65$2.20$3.35
Peanutslb$0.3150$0.3150 est.$0.3150$0.3150$0.1950$0.2400
Long grain ricelb$0.1690$0.1690 est.$0.1690$0.1690$0.0770$0.1400
Medium and short grain ricelb$0.1690waits on 2025/26 price$0.1700$0.1690$0.0770$0.1500
Temperate japonica ricelb$0.2433waits on 2025/26 price$0.2685$0.2433$0.0770$0.2050
Seed cottonlb$0.4200waits on 2025/26 price$0.4311$0.4200$0.3000$0.4114
Dry peaslb$0.1314$0.1314 est.$0.1493$0.1310$0.0687$0.1120
Lentilslb$0.2731$0.2731 est.$0.3530$0.2375$0.1430$0.1700
Small chickpeaslb$0.2605waits on 2025/26 price$0.3068$0.2265$0.1100$0.1670
Large chickpeaslb$0.2950waits on 2025/26 price$0.3547$0.2565$0.1540$0.2100
Canolalb$0.2375$0.2375 est.$0.2595$0.2375$0.1110$0.2450
Flaxseedbu$13.30$13.30 est.$14.70$13.30$6.216$13.00
Sunflower seedlb$0.2375waits on 2025/26 price$0.2512$0.2375$0.1110$0.2470
Mustard seedlb$0.2731waits on 2025/26 price$0.3937$0.2375$0.1110$0.3170
Rapeseedlb$0.2375$0.2375 est.$0.2375$0.2375$0.1110$0.3050
Safflowerlb$0.2438waits on 2025/26 price$0.2773$0.2375$0.1110$0.2150
Crambelb$0.2375waits on 2025/26 price$0.2567$0.2375$0.1110$0.3660
Sesame seedlb$0.2731waits on 2025/26 price$0.4000$0.2375$0.1110$0.3800

ERP = PLC effective reference price. ARC price = ARC-CO benchmark price. 2026 figures are FSA’s (table of Sep 11, 2026) and match our math from FSA’s price column. 2027 est. is our math from FSA’s final prices; where FSA still shows the 2025/26 price as projected and the answer depends on it, the 2027 figure waits. USDA proj.: WASDE for sorghum, barley, oats and long grain rice; FSA’s table for the rest. No pick is given for these crops yet: FSA’s price table starts with 2020/21, too few years for the scenarios.

What changed for 2026 and 2027?

As of Oct 9, 2026. The 2025 law (One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Pub. L. 119-21) and FSA’s January 2026 rule:

How do ARC-CO and PLC pay?

A worked example (made-up corn farm, 2027 prices)

County benchmark yield 180 bu, PLC yield 150 bu, 100 base acres, a county yield of 162 bu and a $4.00 season-average price.

  1. PLC. Rate = $4.34 − $4.00 = $0.34/bu. Per base acre: $0.34 × 150 bu PLC yield × 85% = $43.35.
  2. ARC-CO. Benchmark revenue = 180 bu × $4.96 = $892.80. Guarantee (90%) = $803.52. Actual revenue = 162 bu × $4.00 = $648.00. Shortfall $155.52, capped at 12% of benchmark ($107.14): $107.14 per acre before the 85% factor; $91.07 per base acre.
  3. On 100 base acres: PLC $4,335, ARC-CO $9,107, before the 5.7% sequestration cut.
  4. Where they cross at a 162 bu county yield: PLC pays more at $3.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.63 to $4.95. Neither pays at $4.96 or higher.

What should I check before I sign?

Where do I find my county’s ARC-CO benchmark yield?

FSA’s official ARC-CO benchmark yields for program year 2026 (FSA file as of Jan 16, 2026) cover 2,772 counties. FSA’s benchmark is the Olympic average of the county’s five most recent yields (2020 to 2024 for 2026), with low years raised to 80% of the county T-yield and each year trend-adjusted. FSA has not posted 2027 benchmarks; building them needs RMA’s 2027 trend factors, which are not out, so the 2027 view uses FSA’s official 2026 benchmark, labeled. Counties FSA does not list get no page here: ask the county office for “the ARC-CO benchmark yield for my county, crop and practice” or check FSA’s program data.

Alabama · Alaska · Arizona · Arkansas · California · Colorado · Delaware · Florida · Georgia · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana · Iowa · Kansas · Kentucky · Louisiana · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Michigan · Minnesota · Mississippi · Missouri · Montana · Nebraska · Nevada · New Hampshire · New Jersey · New Mexico · New York · North Carolina · North Dakota · Ohio · Oklahoma · Oregon · Pennsylvania · Rhode Island · South Carolina · South Dakota · Tennessee · Texas · Utah · Vermont · Virginia · Washington · West Virginia · Wisconsin · Wyoming

How the ARC or PLC verdict is figured

The verdict compares what each program is expected to pay per base acre across past years (2015 to 2025, each year with a final USDA price), not one guess.

Scenario prices (11 years)

Year2026 corn2026 soybeans2026 wheat2027 corn2027 soybeans
2015$4.47$12.10$5.92$4.68$10.65
2016$4.56$11.70$5.88$4.46$12.72
2017$4.56$11.53$6.71$4.79$11.84
2018$4.65$11.88$6.47$5.15$10.93
2019$4.33$11.16$6.06$4.73$12.15
2020$5.38$12.33$6.49$6.10$15.15
2021$5.30$13.03$7.31$6.35$14.81
2022$4.52$12.39$6.60$5.23$12.84
2023$4.42$11.64$5.86$3.34$10.50
2024$4.83$12.01$5.87$4.47$9.70
2025$4.67$12.22$6.12$4.70$12.62

Season-average price used in each scenario year, $/bu.

Typical-farm verdicts, all counties

Year, cropPick PLCLeans PLCCloseLeans ARC-COPick ARC-CONeither paysToo few yearsNo 2027 priceWaiting on USDANo typical farm
2026 corn004462,52100000296
2026 soybeans000002,478000220
2026 wheat061,4001,05700000311
2027 corn001,4691,2952030000296
2027 soybeans005521,3645590300220
2027 wheat00000002,4630311

County and practice combinations. Your own PLC yield moves the answer; run it.

What each program paid, nationally, per base acre

YearCropERPFinal MYAPLC ratePLC $/base acARC-CO $/base ac
2019Corn$3.70$3.56$0.14$17.03not in our files
2019Soybeans$8.40$8.57nonenonenot in our files
2019Wheat$5.50$4.58$0.92$32.71not in our files
2020Corn$3.70$4.53nonenonenot in our files
2020Soybeans$8.40$10.80nonenonenot in our files
2020Wheat$5.50$5.05$0.45$16.00not in our files
2021Corn$3.70$6.00nonenone$0.64
2021Soybeans$8.40$13.30nonenone$0.34
2021Wheat$5.50$7.63nonenone$3.74
2022Corn$3.70$6.54nonenone$1.65
2022Soybeans$8.40$14.20nonenone$0.88
2022Wheat$5.50$8.83nonenone$2.17
2023Corn$3.70$4.55nonenone$2.52
2023Soybeans$8.40$12.40nonenone$1.54
2023Wheat$5.50$6.96nonenone$3.64
2024Corn$4.01$4.24nonenone$17.84
2024Soybeans$9.26$10.00nonenone$12.99
2024Wheat$5.50$5.52nonenone$5.27
2025Corn$4.42$4.16$0.26$31.62$45.96
2025Soybeans$10.71$10.50$0.21$7.30$24.76
2025Wheat$6.35$5.06$1.29$45.87$24.86

PLC: ERP minus the final season-average price (NASS), never below the loan rate, times FSA’s 2025 national average PLC yield (corn 143.1, soybeans 40.9, wheat 41.8 bu, weighted by enrolled base) times 85%. 2019 to 2024 use the 2018 law (statutory $3.70, $8.40, $5.50; 85% escalator); 2025 the 2025 law. ARC-CO: FSA’s county payment rates from its program year files (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025), irrigated and non-irrigated averaged equally where FSA splits a county, weighted by each county’s enrolled base, times 85%. Every county rate in those files was recomputed from the file’s own yields and prices and matched FSA’s to the cent (92,577 rows). Not in our files: 2019, 2020. National averages hide wide county differences.

Questions farmers ask

Should I pick ARC or PLC for 2026 or 2027?

It comes down to where the season-average price lands and how your county yields. PLC pays when the national price ends below the effective reference price (2027 est.: $4.34 corn, $10.62 soybeans, $6.35 wheat). ARC-CO pays when county revenue falls below 90% of its benchmark, so it helps more when the county yield drops while the price holds. The calculator gives a verdict for your farm (pick, leans, or close, either one) with the expected payment per base acre for each, figured across past years' prices and your county's yields.

What is the 2027 effective reference price for corn?

$4.34 per bushel by our math from final USDA prices (est.): 88% of the 2021 to 2025 Olympic average season-average price, above the $4.10 statutory price. Soybeans $10.62, wheat $6.35. For 2026 the figures are $4.42, $10.71 and $6.35, matching published FSA-based figures. FSA publishes the official 2027 numbers.

When is the ARC/PLC deadline?

2026: September 16 to December 11, 2026. 2027: November 2, 2026 to March 15, 2027. The 2026 deadline comes first.

What happens if I don't enroll?

For 2026, a farm with no election by December 11, 2026 keeps its 2025 election but gets no 2026 payment. Keeping your old choice still takes a signed contract.

Can I sign a multi-year contract?

Yes, for 2026 through 2031. It stays in force while the farm's records and producers do not change. The 2026 election itself must be unanimous among the producers on the farm; from 2027 the election can be changed crop by crop in each year's signup.

How is ARC-CO paid?

ARC-CO compares county revenue (county yield times the higher of the national season-average price or the loan rate) with 90% of the county benchmark revenue. The shortfall is paid, up to 12% of benchmark revenue, on 85% of your base acres. A farm with irrigated and non-irrigated county figures is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage.

Can I buy SCO if I pick ARC?

Under the 2025 law, yes: SCO is no longer tied to your ARC or PLC election. For 2026 the coverage up to 90% is sold as ECO; SCO itself goes to 90% in 2027. Confirm the details for your crop with your crop insurance agent.

Who gets the payment on rented ground?

On a cash lease the tenant gets the ARC or PLC payment unless the two agree otherwise. On a share lease the landlord and tenant split it by their shares, and both sign the contract.

When do the payments come?

After the marketing year ends and USDA publishes the season-average price: after October 1, 2027 for 2026 crops and after October 1, 2028 for 2027 crops.

What is the ARC/PLC payment limit?

$155,000 per person or legal entity in the 2025 law, adjusted for inflation; USDA put 2025 at $160,000. The 2026 and 2027 figures are not out. The limit is per person across all crops and farms.

This is an estimate, not a USDA determination. Payments depend on FSA’s official yields, prices and your farm records. Read FSA’s ARC/PLC page, its program data, or find your county FSA office. Dollars are before the 5.7% sequestration cut. Run an extension office or co-op site? Embed the calculator.

Sources

Related: Farm bill tracker · Pre-sell calculator · Break-even calculator · Harvest price tracker