What's priced in?
Before every major USDA report the market has already placed its bet. This is what the trade expects, and the number that would surprise it — scored after every release.
Next report: what the trade expects from the October WASDE
Track record
How the expectation lined up against the actual print, and which way price moved. The July WASDE went unscored — expectations were not filed that window; the gap stays on the record.
Analyst scorecard — corn & soybean yield estimates, graded
Who calls these reports best — public forecasters scored against the actual print on accuracy, how often they beat the trade consensus, and which way they lean.
Leaderboard
| # | Analyst | Calls | Accuracy | Beat trade | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arlan SudermanStoneX1× closest | 3 | 1.81% | 0% | +1.81% high |
| 2 | AGSIST Yield Nowcastagsist.com (model)1× closest | 4 | 2.11% | 0% | +2.11% high |
| Still building — ranked once a forecaster has 3 scored calls. Their accuracy so far is real and is shown; their position is not, because 2 calls is not a record. | |||||
| — | Robert McClureMcClure Trades1× closest | 2 of 3 | 0.98% | 50% | -0.92% low |
| — | Jerry GulkeGulke Group | 1 of 3 | 0.03% | 100% | ≈ even |
| — | Pro FarmerPro Farmer | 1 of 3 | 2.97% | 0% | -2.97% low |
Calls on the board
Every forecast already filed for an upcoming report — timestamped now, graded automatically once USDA prints. Lean is versus the trade consensus, or USDA's standing projection where no survey exists yet.
Tracked forecasters
Graded calls
Forecasters who went on record, scored against the print. ★ marks the closest call; “beat trade” means closer than the consensus.
How it's scored: public pre-report forecasts measured against the USDA actual — accuracy is mean absolute % error, beat-trade is the share landing closer than the consensus, bias is mean signed % error. A forecaster needs 3+ scored calls to be ranked. It tracks the most public forecasters, not necessarily the best, and is a track record — not advice or an endorsement.
Methodology
What "expected" means. The estimate is the pre-report trade survey — the average of the figures grain analysts and trade firms submit in the days before a USDA report, the same numbers the wire services aggregate and the market trades into ahead of the release. The range is the spread of those guesses. It is what the market has already assumed, before USDA says a word.
What gets measured. The headline supply figures that move price: U.S. ending stocks (carryout) for corn, soybeans, and wheat, plus production and yield in the months USDA reports them. These are the numbers traders watch first, because a surprise there ripples through the whole balance sheet.
How a report is scored. Each figure is graded against the actual USDA print: within 2% of the trade average is in line for a stocks or production figure, and within 0.5% for a yield — two per cent of a 183 bu/acre yield is 3.7 bushels, which would score almost any August print as unremarkable, while two per cent of a 2.1 billion bushel carryout is about 42 million and is a fair band. A figure with no trade estimate on record is not scored at all and says so; a print below the trade estimate is bullish (less supply than expected); above is bearish (more supply than expected). The bullish and bearish surprise thresholds on the report card are the edges of the trade range — the levels a print has to clear to genuinely move the market rather than confirm what was already priced in.
Where the actual comes from, and when. The corn and soybean yields this board grades are NASS's, published in the Crop Production report at the same hour as the WASDE. A watcher asks NASS for the release month's forecast by name every five minutes inside the release window and fills the figure in the moment it exists — nothing is written before the report is public, and a figure the source does not publish is left blank with the reason rather than estimated. Ending stocks and the rest of the balance sheet are printed only in the WASDE itself and are still filled in by hand.
Sources. Report dates from the USDA WASDE and NASS release schedules; trade estimates from the published pre-report surveys, linked on each figure; actuals from USDA NASS Quick Stats. Fund positioning from the CFTC Commitments of Traders, dated on the card. Compiled and scored by a licensed crop-insurance agent. This is a map of expectations, not a trade recommendation or financial advice.
Common questions
What does "priced in" mean?
Markets move on surprises, not facts. If the trade already expects a bearish number, that expectation is built into today's price — "priced in." Price reacts to the gap between the report and what was expected, which is why the expectation matters as much as the report.
Where do the expectations come from?
The estimate range is the pre-report trade survey, typed in from the published survey and left blank with the reason when none has been filed. Positioning is the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders, dated on the card, because a position is only a fact about the Tuesday it was taken. Implied odds appear when a prediction market is quoting the report and the card says so when none is. Together they show what the market has already assumed.
What's a "surprise threshold"?
The level beyond which the report breaks from expectations enough to move price. A print past the bullish threshold tends to rally the market; past the bearish threshold tends to sink it. Inside the range means no analyst on record was surprised by the level. The track record below grades separately and more tightly — against the trade average, within 0.5% for a yield — so a print inside the range can still be graded bullish or bearish there.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. It's a map of expectations, not advice. It tells you where the bar is set so you can judge a report's reaction for yourself.