What's priced in?
Before every major USDA report, the market has already placed its bet. This is what the trade expects — the estimate range, the implied odds, and how the funds are positioned — and the number that would actually surprise it. After each release, it gets scored.
Next report
Track record
How the expectation lined up against the actual print, and which way price moved.
Forecaster scorecard
Who calls these reports best — public forecasters scored against the actual print on accuracy, how often they beat the trade consensus, and which way they lean.
Leaderboard
Calls on the board
Every forecast already filed for an upcoming report — timestamped now, graded automatically once USDA prints. Lean is versus the trade consensus, or USDA's standing projection where no survey exists yet.
Tracked forecasters
Graded calls
Forecasters who went on record, scored against the print. ★ marks the closest call; “beat trade” means closer than the consensus.
How it's scored: public pre-report forecasts measured against the USDA actual — accuracy is mean absolute % error, beat-trade is the share landing closer than the consensus, bias is mean signed % error. A forecaster needs 3+ scored calls to be ranked. It tracks the most public forecasters, not necessarily the best, and is a track record — not advice or an endorsement.
Methodology
What "expected" means. The estimate is the pre-report trade survey — the average of the figures grain analysts and trade firms submit in the days before a USDA report, the same numbers the wire services aggregate and the market trades into ahead of the release. The range is the spread of those guesses. It is what the market has already assumed, before USDA says a word.
What gets measured. The headline supply figures that move price: U.S. ending stocks (carryout) for corn, soybeans, and wheat, plus production and yield in the months USDA reports them. These are the numbers traders watch first, because a surprise there ripples through the whole balance sheet.
How a report is scored. Each figure is graded against the actual USDA print: within 2% of the trade average is in line; a print below the trade estimate is bullish (less supply than expected); above is bearish (more supply than expected). The bullish and bearish surprise thresholds on the report card are the edges of the trade range — the levels a print has to clear to genuinely move the market rather than confirm what was already priced in.
Sources. Report dates from the USDA WASDE and NASS release schedules; trade estimates from the published pre-report surveys; actuals from the USDA print itself. Compiled and scored by a licensed crop-insurance agent. This is a map of expectations, not a trade recommendation or financial advice.
Common questions
What does "priced in" mean?
Markets move on surprises, not facts. If the trade already expects a bearish number, that expectation is built into today's price — "priced in." Price reacts to the gap between the report and what was expected, which is why the expectation matters as much as the report.
Where do the expectations come from?
The estimate range is the pre-report trade survey. Implied odds come from prediction markets, and positioning from the weekly Commitments of Traders. Together they show what the market has already assumed.
What's a "surprise threshold"?
The level beyond which the report breaks from expectations enough to move price. A print past the bullish threshold tends to rally the market; past the bearish threshold tends to sink it. Inside the range is roughly "as expected."
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. It's a map of expectations, not advice. It tells you where the bar is set so you can judge a report's reaction for yourself.