What's priced in?
Before every major USDA report, the market has already placed its bet. This is what the trade expects — the estimate range, the implied odds, and how the funds are positioned — and the number that would actually surprise it. After each release, it gets scored.
Next report
Track record
How the expectation lined up against the actual print, and which way price moved.
Common questions
What does "priced in" mean?
Markets move on surprises, not facts. If the trade already expects a bearish number, that expectation is built into today's price — "priced in." Price reacts to the gap between the report and what was expected, which is why the expectation matters as much as the report.
Where do the expectations come from?
The estimate range is the pre-report trade survey. Implied odds come from prediction markets, and positioning from the weekly Commitments of Traders. Together they show what the market has already assumed.
What's a "surprise threshold"?
The level beyond which the report breaks from expectations enough to move price. A print past the bullish threshold tends to rally the market; past the bearish threshold tends to sink it. Inside the range is roughly "as expected."
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. It's a map of expectations, not advice. It tells you where the bar is set so you can judge a report's reaction for yourself.