Question 1

What are ag prediction markets?

Accepted Answer

Ag prediction markets are financial contracts where traders bet real money on the probability that specific agricultural events will occur — such as a tariff being imposed, a drought declaration, a Fed rate cut, or a USDA crop estimate coming in above expectations. The market price reflects the crowd's best estimate of that probability.

Question 2

How do prediction market odds help farmers?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate information from thousands of traders who have real money on the line. A 70% probability on a tariff extension is often more accurate than any single analyst forecast. Farmers can use these odds to assess risk when making storage, hedging, or marketing decisions.

Question 3

How does tariff probability affect corn and soybean prices?

Accepted Answer

Tariffs directly reduce export demand for US grains — particularly soybeans to China. When tariff-on odds rise above 60-70%, grain markets often reprice lower as traders anticipate reduced export flows. Basis levels at river terminals and Gulf ports are especially sensitive to tariff probability shifts.

Question 4

How does oil price affect farming costs?

Accepted Answer

Crude oil prices drive diesel costs for field operations, natural gas prices for nitrogen fertilizer production, and plastic prices for storage bags and irrigation equipment. A $10 per barrel increase in crude oil adds roughly $0.15-0.25 per acre to corn production costs through fuel and fertilizer alone.

Question 5

Where do these prediction markets come from?

Accepted Answer

AGSIST sources ag-relevant prediction markets from Kalshi (a CFTC-regulated exchange) and Polymarket. AGSIST filters out sports, entertainment, and irrelevant contracts, scoring each market by its direct impact on grain prices, input costs, weather risk, or farm policy.

Live Grain Market Odds