A once-a-day screen of real-money prediction markets for the contracts that reach farm costs and prices. What is on the board changes with what the exchanges have open — some days that includes tariff, drought or grain contracts, and some days it holds none of them. The list below is today’s actual pull from Polymarket, and the headings above it are counted from that pull.
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Agricultural prediction markets let you see, in one number, what thousands of real-money traders expect on the events that move farm income — China tariffs on soybeans, drought declarations, USDA report surprises, Fed rate decisions, and the crude oil and natural gas prices that set your diesel and fertilizer bills. I pull the ag-relevant contracts from Polymarket every morning, score each one for direct impact on corn, soybean, wheat, cattle, hog, and egg operations, and explain why it matters — at no charge. Which of those are actually trading changes day to day, and the board below is today’s pull, not a standing menu.
Most prediction-market dashboards bury grain and livestock contracts under sports and politics. This page does the opposite: it filters for agriculture first, ranks markets by how directly they touch your basis, input costs, and yield risk, and links straight to the live contract so you can check depth and volume yourself.
Market Categories the Daily Scan Covers
This is the coverage list the scan works from — not a claim that any of these are trading right now. The count beside each one is from today’s pull.
CommoditiesCorn, soybean, wheat, cattle, hog, egg, and food price markets that directly affect farm revenue and input demand.
Trade & PolicyTariff probability on US grain exports to China, USMCA trade disputes, and retaliatory trade measures that move basis.
Energy & InputsCrude oil and natural gas price ranges that drive diesel and nitrogen fertilizer costs — the two largest variable input costs.
Weather & ClimateDrought declaration probability, hurricane landfall odds, and El Niño/La Niña seasonal outlooks affecting yield risk.
Economy & MarketsFed rate decisions, inflation trajectory, and dollar strength — all affecting grain export demand and farm lending costs.
InfrastructureRail strike probability, Mississippi River disruptions, and supply chain events that spike basis and delay grain movement.
Today’s Ag Prediction Market Board
Prediction-market odds as of 2026-10-05: Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 1% yes; Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? — 10% yes; Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — 96% yes; Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? — 78% yes; Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? — 20% yes; Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? — 2% yes. These are the readings from the pull stamped above, not a live feed. The board below re-renders the same pull in your browser.
Not financial advice, and AGSIST does not offer trading. These are prices from other people’s markets: they reflect crowd opinion at one moment, not guaranteed outcomes. Do not make hedging, storage, or marketing decisions on them alone.
Data from Polymarket. Check its current access rules for US residents.
AGSIST has no commercial relationship with it and takes no cut. Each card links to the contract on Polymarket, where the live price and depth are shown.
Direct Ag (corn, grain, cattle, egg, food)
Trade & Energy (tariff, oil, fertilizer, supply chain)
Macro (Fed, inflation, dollar, recession)
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Scanning prediction markets for agricultural impact…
Key Markets to Watch on Polymarket
Tariff Probability
When tariff odds on Chinese goods rise above 60%, soybean and corn export basis typically weakens 5–15¢/bu as traders anticipate reduced demand. Watch tariff markets before making storage or forward-sales decisions.
Every $10/barrel move in crude oil translates to roughly $1–2/acre in diesel and grain-drying fuel. Oil price markets let you gauge energy input cost risk before spring planting budgets lock in.
Natural gas is the primary feedstock for urea and anhydrous ammonia. When gas markets show rising odds of $4+ Henry Hub, nitrogen fertilizer costs typically follow within 60–90 days — time purchases accordingly.
Fed rate cut probability markets move land values and operating line interest costs. Higher rate odds increase the cost of carrying stored grain. Rate cut odds above 60% often support land values and reduce basis pressure.
Food inflation markets reflect consumer-side demand for the ag supply chain. Egg price markets track avian flu pressure and feed demand. Grocery price markets signal retailer buying behavior that flows back through to basis.
Drought declaration and hurricane landfall markets provide crowd-sourced probability on yield-threatening weather. Compare these odds against NOAA seasonal outlooks when making replant or prevented planting decisions.
The "yes" percentage is the market's implied probability that the event happens. A 72% reading is the price the contract clears at, which implies 72-in-100 odds. It is a price, not a headcount — a few large orders can move it. The price moves continuously on the exchange; the number on this page is the reading at the last daily pull and does not change while you read.
Why markets beat forecasts
Prediction markets aggregate information from people with real money on the line — traders, analysts, lobbyists, and industry insiders. Research consistently shows these crowds outperform individual expert forecasts on policy and economic events.
How to use this for marketing decisions
If tariff-on odds are 80%, price in export disruption when setting your basis targets. If drought odds are rising fast, watch nearby elevator bids. These are one more data point alongside fundamentals — not standalone trading signals.
Data sources & update frequency
One pull a day, on a 09:23 UTC schedule — roughly 4 AM Central. AGSIST filters out sports, entertainment, and contracts with no farm connection, then scores what is left. There is no intraday update: for the live price, open the contract on the source platform.
Prediction Markets by Commodity
Which contracts matter for each operation, and how to read them.
Corn prediction markets
Tariff, ethanol-demand, crude oil, and Midwest drought contracts move corn basis and new-crop expectations. Energy matters twice for corn — diesel for fieldwork and natural gas for the nitrogen that drives yield.
Soybean prediction markets
China tariff probability is the single biggest swing factor for soybeans, which send roughly half the US crop to export. A 20-point move in tariff odds can shift export basis 5–15¢ with no change in futures.
Wheat prediction markets
Black Sea conflict, Russian export policy, and US Plains drought odds drive wheat. Weather and geopolitics matter more here than for any other major grain.
Cattle & livestock markets
Feed-cost (corn) odds, drought affecting pasture and hay, and trade contracts shape cattle and hog margins. Watch crude and grain markets together for the feeding picture.
Egg & poultry markets
Bird-flu (avian influenza) probability and feed-cost contracts drive egg prices — among the most volatile ag-adjacent markets when an outbreak hits.
Food & input-cost markets
Food inflation, fertilizer, and Henry Hub natural gas contracts sit upstream and downstream of the farm gate — early signals for both your costs and consumer demand.
Common Questions About Ag Prediction Markets
Ag prediction markets are financial contracts where traders bet real money on the probability that specific agricultural events will occur — such as a tariff being imposed, a drought declaration, a Fed rate cut, or a USDA crop estimate coming in above expectations. The market price (shown as a %) is the price buyers and sellers are clearing at, which is the crowd’s best estimate of that probability. It moves continuously on the exchange — but the number printed on this page is the reading at AGSIST’s last pull, which runs once a day. Unlike opinion polls or analyst forecasts, real money is at stake, which incentivizes accurate information aggregation. AGSIST aggregates markets from Polymarket, filters for agricultural relevance, and explains why each one matters to your operation.
Prediction markets aggregate information from many traders who have real money on the line — not just one analyst's opinion. A 70% price means the market's collective best estimate is a 7-in-10 chance it happens. Farmers can use these odds to assess risk when making storage, hedging, or marketing decisions. For example: if tariff-on odds are above 70%, that's strong market consensus to factor into your basis targets and forward sales timing. If drought probability is rising fast in May, it's worth watching nearby elevator bids more closely. Use these odds as one additional data point alongside fundamentals, not as a standalone trading signal.
Tariffs directly reduce export demand for US grains — particularly soybeans to China, which imports roughly 60% of the world's traded soybeans and roughly a quarter of the US soybean crop in a typical recent year (it peaked near 30% before 2018). When tariff-on odds rise above 60–70%, grain markets often reprice lower as traders anticipate reduced export flows. Basis levels at river terminals, interior elevators, and Gulf ports are especially sensitive to tariff probability shifts because export basis is the most direct connection between global demand and your local elevator bid. A large swing in tariff probability can move export basis without any futures price change.
Crude oil prices drive three major farm expense categories: (1) diesel for all field operations including planting, spraying, harvesting, and hauling; (2) natural gas for nitrogen fertilizer production, since ammonia synthesis is highly energy-intensive; and (3) plastics for storage bags, irrigation components, and equipment. A rise in crude oil raises corn production costs through diesel for fieldwork, harvest, hauling, and grain drying. To size it for your farm, multiply your diesel and drying fuel per acre by the price change. Nitrogen fertilizer prices also move with energy, but track natural gas more closely than crude.
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform settled in USDC. Check its current access rules for US residents. It aggregates real-money crowd forecasts on policy, economic, and event outcomes. AGSIST pulls agricultural-relevant markets from it daily, labels the source on each card, and links directly to the original contract so you can see live depth and volume.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange with dollar settlement. Polymarket is a blockchain-based platform settled in USDC; check its current access rules for US residents. AGSIST lists Polymarket contracts only today; Kalshi contracts will be labeled if they are added.
Polymarket is a blockchain-based platform; check its current access rules for US residents. AGSIST only aggregates and explains the odds; it does not offer trading. Always confirm current access rules on the platform directly.
Because traders risk real money, prediction markets tend to aggregate information more accurately than single-analyst forecasts or polls, especially for policy and economic events. They are not certainties: odds reflect crowd opinion at a point in time and can move sharply on news. Use them as one input alongside USDA data, cash basis, and your own fundamentals — not a standalone signal.
Yes. Polymarket lists contracts that bear directly on grain prices — tariff probability (biggest for soybeans), crop-weather and drought odds, energy and fertilizer ranges, and USDA report outcomes. AGSIST surfaces the corn-, soybean-, and wheat-relevant ones and explains the price connection on each card.
AGSIST refreshes the market list once daily, early each morning, from Polymarket. The percentage on each card is the latest reading at that pull; click through to the source platform for live, real-time depth and volume.