Ag Tariff Tracker

When a major buyer like China imposes retaliatory tariffs, US grain becomes more expensive in that market. Buyers shift to Brazil, Argentina, or Ukraine instead. This reduces US export demand, puts pressure on basis, and ultimately flows through to lower cash prices at the elevator — even for grain that was never destined for export.

Elevated means tariffs are significantly above baseline — export demand is impaired. Mixed means partial exemptions or uncertainty. Normal means trade is flowing at standard rates. Even a resolved tariff dispute may not restore prior purchase volumes quickly, keeping pressure on basis longer than the tariff itself.

China buys roughly 60% of globally traded soybeans. When US-China tariffs are elevated, Brazil and Argentina pick up US market share. This is not temporary — buyers build new supply chains. Even a deal may not restore prior purchase levels quickly, which keeps pressure on soybean basis longer than the tariff itself.

Monitor USDA export sales reports every Thursday at 8:30am ET to watch whether weekly net sales are holding up. Watch Brazil's harvest pace and currency — a cheap Brazilian real with high tariffs on US beans is a double headwind. Consider selling into any tariff-relief rally rather than waiting for a full resolution.

Export-tariff stress shows up in local cash prices through the basis channel rather than CBOT futures. When China imposes retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans, basis at interior elevators connected to Gulf export rails can widen noticeably within weeks, meaning the cash price farmers receive falls faster than Chicago Board of Trade futures. Corn basis softens similarly when ethanol exports or feed shipments lose tariff competitiveness. Soybean-heavy regions feel this most acutely because soybeans depend more heavily on export demand than corn or wheat.