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Good Morning
Day --/5
WHEAT HOLDS THE HIGH GROUND; SEPTEMBER SETS UP
Grains closed the week strong, cattle are low on the range, and three market-moving events hit before Thursday.
Wheat closed Friday at $7.67, up 22 cents on the session and sitting at 92% of its 52-week range. Beans followed at $12.76, meal added nearly 3%. Cattle at $219.25 are 27% off their 52-week low and going nowhere fast. The week ahead has the catalysts to change at least one of those pictures.
THE TAKEAWAY
Wheat and beans earned the week; cattle need a reason to move that hasn't shown up yet.
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Chicago wheat closed at $7.67, up 3.0% on Friday, the biggest single-session gain in several weeks, with the rally attributed to a combination of export demand and short-covering ahead of the long weekend.
November beans closed at $12.88, up 1.2%, and sit at 99% of their 52-week range; meal added 2.8% to $338.20, which is doing more work than the bean contract right now.
December corn at $5.37 went nowhere on Friday, flat on the session, and that's the correct read: corn has a harvest coming and no weather story left to tell.
CATTLE: STILL LOW, STILL WAITING
DRIVER
Live cattle closed Friday at $219.25, down half a percent, sitting at just 27% of their 52-week range. That's not a market that has momentum in either direction.
The Cargill multi-plant lockout, ongoing since May 19, is still removing roughly 6,000 head of daily processing capacity; packer margins are the constraint, not animal numbers, and that dynamic hasn't changed.
The screwworm-driven closure of Mexican feeder cattle imports has a phased reopening at Douglas, AZ scheduled for Aug 24, which is now in the past. Watch whether confirmed volume through that port shows up in this week's data.
INPUTS: PHOSPHATE AND DIESEL INTO HARVEST
DRIVER
Diesel is near record highs heading into harvest; the Iran-Hormuz energy cycle (see today's one number) is the structural driver and it won't reset before combines roll.
CHS and OCP North America announced a $450 million phosphate plant for Louisiana -- the first domestic facility in 40 years. No help for 2026 input costs, but the first real answer to import vulnerability in a generation.
Natural gas at $2.89 is 8% off its 52-week low. Grain drying costs this fall will be cheap by historical comparison.
AGSIST Yield Nowcast — This Year’s Crop, Called WeeklyLoading…
Corn
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bu/ac · 80% band ±--
Soybeans
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bu/ac · 80% band ±--
Built from Monday’s USDA crop ratings, state by state, weighted by acres. The band isn’t a guess — it’s how far the same model actually missed at this week of the season, backtested 16 years. Tightens as the season ages. USDA’s first survey forecast doesn’t land until mid-August.
AGSIST displays live CBOT corn futures prices updated every 30 minutes via Yahoo Finance. Both the nearby front-month contract and the December new-crop harvest contract are shown with net change, percent change, and 52-week range. Prices are in dollars per bushel. See full corn futures →
How do I find cash grain bids near me?
Enter any US ZIP code on AGSIST's Cash Bids page at agsist.com/cash-bids to see live corn, soybean, and wheat elevator prices from every reporting grain elevator within 50 miles. Basis is shown alongside cash price for each location. Find cash bids →
Is AGSIST free?
Yes. AGSIST is available at no charge with no account or subscription required. Tools on the site — spray advisory, urea volatilization risk monitor, break-even calculator, grain bin calculator, cash bids, and the AGSIST Daily briefing — are available at no charge for non-commercial use.
How often are grain prices updated on AGSIST?
Grain futures prices on AGSIST are updated every 30 minutes during trading hours Monday through Friday via GitHub Actions. The AGSIST Daily briefing is published before the market open every weekday with overnight market analysis.
What is urea volatilization risk?
Urea volatilization is the loss of nitrogen fertilizer as ammonia gas when urea is surface-applied without incorporation. Risk is highest when soil temperatures exceed 50°F, humidity is high, and no rain is forecast within 2–4 days. AGSIST's free urea risk monitor scores your real-time local conditions from 0–100. Check urea risk →
What is grain basis and why does it matter?
Grain basis is the difference between your local cash elevator price and the nearby CME futures contract price. A basis of -30 cents means the elevator pays 30 cents below futures. Stronger (less negative) basis signals higher local demand. AGSIST displays live basis alongside cash price for every elevator in the cash bids tool.
When is the WASDE report released?
The USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report is released monthly, typically around the 10th of each month at 12:00 PM Eastern Time. It is the most market-moving USDA report, often moving corn and soybean futures 10-40 cents at release. AGSIST's USDA Calendar tracks all report dates with market impact ratings. USDA calendar →
What is the corn-to-soybean price ratio and how do farmers use it?
The corn-to-soybean price ratio compares November soybean futures divided by December corn futures. Across historical USDA price data, ratios above 2.6:1 have typically favored soybean profitability per acre; below 2.4:1, corn; between 2.4 and 2.6 is neutral. Actual thresholds shift with local yield potential, input costs, and basis — individual operations should run break-even math on their own numbers. Both contract prices update every 30 minutes on AGSIST’s corn and soybean futures pages. Break-even calculator →
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Prices from Yahoo Finance via AGSIST pipeline · Cash bids via Barchart OnDemand · Weather via Open-Meteo · USDA NASS · NOAA CPC|Not financial or trading advice — verify all prices with your elevator or broker before marketing decisions. Questions? 715-797-2428 · sig@farmers1st.com|Privacy Policy
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