Storage crunch: more grain than bins

Every fall the same argument: "why is my basis so wide?" Here’s one measurable piece of the answer — how much grain your state grows against how much it can physically hold. 2025: the U.S. grew grain equal to 94% of its total storage capacity · 7 of 29 fully-measured states grew MORE than they can store · tightest: Mississippi 1.30×, Tennessee 1.19×, South Dakota 1.18× · data refreshed 2026-07-18

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Every state: grain grown vs total bin space — tap a state
overflowingtightmanageableroom to spareno data
94%
of U.S. storage, grown in 2025
production ÷ total capacity
7
states over 1.0×
of the 29 with complete data
1.30×
tightest: Mississippi
grain moves south to the river
0.94×
Iowa
biggest grain state, 2025

Every state, ranked by crunch

Grain = corn + soybeans + wheat + sorghum + barley + oats, final 2025 production, million bushels. Capacity = on-farm + off-farm, Dec 1. Click a state name for its 25-year history; click a column to sort.

StateCrunch 2025vs 10-yr avgGrain, M buCapacity, M buOn-farm share
1.30×+0.2426020035%
1.19×-0.1022418839%
1.18×+0.251417120038%
1.15×+0.1599086034%
1.10×+0.132398217046%
1.08×+0.191740160576%
1.00×+0.071411141039%
0.96×+0.033056317053%
0.95×+0.1174278052%
0.95×-0.1933935726%
0.94×+0.221311139033%
0.94×+0.3110611347%
0.94×+0.073372359043%
0.92×+0.0749954044%
0.92×+0.0220722549%
0.91×+0.112161237035%
0.90×+0.01677451%
0.90×+0.1226829846%
0.89×+0.00869741%
0.86×+0.00891103546%
0.75×+0.0619325649%
0.70×+0.167210261%
0.67×-0.1214621822%
0.65×+0.1220031079%
0.62×+0.0948078078%
0.57×+0.0322539522%
0.55×+0.0028953056%
0.54×+0.0317131579%
0.49×-0.168417127%
1.10×-0.6098100%
0.76×+0.161115100%
0.55×-0.311018100%
1.42×-0.321611100%
1.64×-0.004427100%
1.90×+0.0310555100%
1.02×+0.201212100%
0.25×-0.012185100%
1.61×+0.47194120100%
3.46×+0.406619100%
What this can’t tell you. Capacity is measured December 1 — after harvest — and grain moves all year, so a 1.1× state isn’t drowning; it’s shipping. Ten states carry no ratio at all. USDA publishes no separate on-farm capacity estimate for Arizona, California, Delaware, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, New Mexico, South Carolina, Utah and Wyoming — their farm bins are folded into a combined national bucket. This page used to treat that blank as zero, which made those states look like they had almost no storage and put South Carolina at the top of the list at 3.46×. That was our error, not a finding about South Carolina. Those states now show off-farm capacity only, marked †, and are left out of the ranking and the counts. Years USDA didn’t publish cleanly are excluded, and any value that looks contaminated is dropped rather than displayed.
Do something with it: a tight state at harvest is a wide-basis state — check your region against its own normal on Basis vs Normal · the answer to a crunch is often your own bin: size one with the grain bin calculator and price the carry with the pre-sell calculator.

Questions people actually ask

What does a storage crunch ratio over 1.0 mean?
The state produced more bushels of grain (corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum, barley and oats combined) than its total on-farm plus off-farm storage capacity. That grain has to move — by rail, barge or truck — or sit in piles. Either way, somebody pays, and it usually shows up as weaker harvest basis.
Why does storage capacity matter for my basis?
When bins are full, elevators bid less because taking your grain costs them space they don't have. A state running near or over 1.0x heading into harvest is a state where basis has to do the rationing. See how your region's basis compares to its own normal on the AGSIST basis page.
What counts as storage capacity here?
USDA NASS measures both on-farm capacity (your bins) and off-farm capacity (licensed elevators, terminals, processors) as of December 1 each year. This page adds them together and shows the on-farm share separately, because who owns the space decides who earns the carry.
Why do some states show no ratio?
USDA does not publish a separate on-farm storage capacity estimate for ten states — Arizona, California, Delaware, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, New Mexico, South Carolina, Utah and Wyoming. Their farm bins are reported inside a combined national figure instead. Without that number there is no honest way to compute a total, so those states show off-farm elevator capacity only and are left out of the ranking rather than being given a made-up ratio.
Whose numbers are these?
USDA NASS Quick Stats: Grain Stocks capacity (first of December) and annual Crop Production final figures. Forecast rows are excluded; only final YEAR production is used. Sources at the bottom of the page.

Source: USDA NASS Quick Stats — Grain Stocks storage capacity (on-farm and off-farm, first of December) and annual Crop Production (final YEAR figures only; forecasts excluded). Small combined-states rows are in national totals but never ranked. Data refreshed 2026-07-18. AGSIST is free and sells nothing on this page.