Basis by state · AGSIST elevator network and USDA

Grain basis today: your state, vs normal, and why

The check you cash is futures plus basis. First, the middle basis at the elevators we read in your state. Then USDA’s regions against their own 5-year normal for this week, the freight behind it, and every state side by side.

Your state today

State

Corn −40¢ vs Dec '26 n = 314 elevators; 0¢ in a week (271 bids both weeks)
Soybeans −65¢ vs Nov '26 n = 275 elevators; −2¢ in a week (232 bids both weeks)

Middle bid of Iowa elevators in the AGSIST network, snapshot of Oct 17, 2026. Iowa bids and basis by elevator →

USDA regions: basis vs 5-year same-week normalweek of 2026-10-09

USDA AgTransport elevator-bid basis against each region’s own 5-year normal for the same week, week of Oct 9, 2026. corn: 6 of 10 regions more than 10¢ under normal, 1 more than 10¢ over, 3 within 10¢ (weakest vs normal Kansas −35¢ against +15¢); soybeans: 2 of 10 regions more than 10¢ under normal, 2 more than 10¢ over, 6 within 10¢ (weakest vs normal Kansas −100¢ against −82¢). Barge rates and origin-to-Gulf spreads below; USDA posts weekly.

Corn, week of Oct 9, 2026 · weakest vs normal first
Region	Basis now	5-yr normal	Vs normal, cents/bu
Kansas	−35¢	+15¢ n=5 yrs	−50¢
Minnesota	−87¢	−45¢ n=5 yrs	−42¢
South Dakota	−65¢	−34¢ n=5 yrs	−31¢
North Dakota	−75¢	−48¢ n=5 yrs	−27¢
Nebraska	−41¢	−22¢ n=5 yrs	−18¢
Iowa	−43¢	−29¢ n=5 yrs	−14¢
Illinois	−34¢	−29¢ n=5 yrs	−5¢
Indiana	−35¢	−31¢ n=5 yrs	−4¢
Ohio	−34¢	−44¢ n=5 yrs	+10¢
North Carolina	+30¢	+17¢ n=5 yrs	+13¢

Negative delta = weaker than this region’s normal for this week. These are USDA-tracked regional markets. Your specific elevator sits some local spread away from its region, but it moves with it.

Method · “Normal” is the average of the same week (or the week either side, when USDA skipped it) in each of the five prior years, 2021 to 2025 for 2026; the n beside it is how many of those years USDA posted. Delta is this week minus that normal. · Sources · USDA AgTransport weekly grain basis, elevator bid series. · Reviewed by Sigurd Lindquist, CCA

The river, right now: barge rates vs normal

Rates are percent of the 1976 benchmark tariff, the industry’s odd but standard yardstick. The grey tick is each location’s 5-year same-week average; the gold bar is now. Bars far past their ticks are freight eating your basis.

Where the money goes between the farm and the Gulf

Why basis is wide this fall: more grain than bins

8 of 11 states with full NASS figures have more grain to hold this fall than bins; Missouri is most crowded at 1.17×. The US as a whole: grain to hold is 99.6% of bin space (25,376 million bu, 25,489 of bins; NASS national figures).

Iowa: 1.08× 6th most crowded of 11

477 million bu in the bins on Sept 1 + 3,416 million bu of 2026 crop, against 3,590 million bu of bin space.

Corn basis in USDA’s Iowa region, week of Oct 9: −43¢, 14¢ under its 5-year normal for that week. Bins are one cause; freight and local demand are the others.

Bin space: 3,590 million bu on Dec 1, 2025, +0.6% from Dec 1, 2020 (NASS).

Past falls in Iowa (2000 to 2025, 26 with full figures): the September pressure averaged 0.99× and December 1 use 0.76×, so moving and using grain took off 24 points by December (most years 21 to 26). This fall’s 1.08× is above 23 of those 26. At the usual pace December 1 use would land near 0.85×; at the pace of the slowest tenth of years, 0.88×. Tried on past years, that usual-pace rule missed December by 2 points on average, 5 at worst.

Basis has to pay for space. When the grain that has to be held this fall is more than the bins can take, elevators bid less to slow it down or pay to ship it out, and that comes out of your basis. Grain to hold is September 1 stocks plus the 2026 corn, soybean and sorghum crop (latest NASS estimate); over 1.00× means more than the bins.

That does not mean the bins run out. farmdoc daily (Dhakal and Janzen, “Enough Room for the Harvest? Grain Storage Pressure in the Corn Belt,” Oct 7, 2026) looked at how fast each state has cleared the pressure from September to December in past years and concluded that, on current production expectations, a storage crunch is unlikely in 2026. It can still pinch in some places, because bins, stocks and crops are spread unevenly. Read their study.

Our own count of the same history, USDA NASS December 1 stocks: in 2000 to 2025 the US took off 26 points of pressure by December 1 on average (most years 24 to 27). Tap a state for its own.

Million bushels · most crowded first · tap a state
State	Grain vs bins	Sept 1 stocks	2026 fall crop	Capacity
99 stocks + 910 crop, 860 bins	1.17×	99	910	860
243 stocks + 1,120 crop, 1,200 bins	1.14×	243	1,120	1,200
315 stocks + 2,133 crop, 2,170 bins	1.13×	315	2,133	2,170
185 stocks + 952 crop, 1,035 bins	1.10×	185	952	1,035
150 stocks + 1,387 crop, 1,410 bins	1.09×	150	1,387	1,410
477 stocks + 3,416 crop, 3,590 bins	1.08×	477	3,416	3,590
348 stocks + 2,987 crop, 3,170 bins	1.05×	348	2,987	3,170
103 stocks + 463 crop, 540 bins	1.05×	103	463	540
374 stocks + 1,978 crop, 2,370 bins	0.99×	374	1,978	2,370
431 stocks + 1,133 crop, 1,605 bins	0.97×	431	1,133	1,605
396 stocks + 805 crop, 1,390 bins	0.86×	396	805	1,390
Missing a NASS figure, so a floor: the grain NASS did publish is already more than the bins
no Sept 1 stocks figure for corn, soybeans277 crop, 200 bins	at least 1.38×	-	277	200
no Sept 1 stocks figure for corn, soybeans, wheat254 crop, 188 bins	at least 1.35×	-	254	188
no Sept 1 stocks figure for soybeans, wheat13 stocks + 374 crop, 357 bins	at least 1.08×	13	374	357
no Sept 1 stocks figure for wheat124 stocks + 684 crop, 780 bins	at least 1.03×	124	684	780

No ratio where NASS has no state figure for a crop the state grows: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Maryland, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Washington.

Bin space has nearly stopped growing. Added up across the states, on-farm plus off-farm capacity rose 1.0% from December 2020 to December 2025, after 4.6% in the five years before (NASS).

Show the math and sources

Grain vs bins = (September 1, 2026 stocks of corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum, barley and oats, on- and off-farm) + (2026 corn, soybean and sorghum crop, latest NASS estimate), divided by on-farm plus off-farm storage capacity on December 1, 2025, the latest NASS count. Wheat, barley and oats are harvested by September 1, so they count once, in the stocks. A state gets a ratio only when NASS publishes a state figure for every crop that was at least 2% of its grain last year. Figures are rounded to the million bushels, so they may not add exactly.

Same measure as farmdoc daily (Dhakal and Janzen, “Enough Room for the Harvest? Grain Storage Pressure in the Corn Belt,” Oct 7, 2026). Their article came out before NASS’s October crop report and used the September forecast; this table uses the newer figures, so the order of the states can differ a little from theirs.

Past falls: pressure in each year uses that year’s final crop and that December’s capacity; December 1 use = December 1 stocks of the same six grains over the same capacity. Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile. The usual-pace line subtracts the state’s average drop from this fall’s pressure; it is a rule of thumb, tested by leaving each past year out in turn.

Source: USDA NASS Quick Stats, Grain Stocks and Crop Production, pulled Oct 16, 2026. Built by scripts/fetch_storage.py; the data: storage.json, history.json. Reviewed by Sigurd Lindquist, CCA.

Show the basis map

Basis in every state: AGSIST network elevators

Middle basis (median) of the elevators we read in each state, each counted once at its nearest delivery, against the futures month most of them name; n is how many elevators. Unnamed futures months and outliers are left out and listed on each state’s page. Tap a state for its elevators, bids and basis.

Network elevators, snapshot of Oct 17, 2026 · strongest corn basis first
State	Corn	Soybeans
Texas	+55¢ vs Dec '26 · n=17	−95¢ vs Nov '26 · n=8
Washington	+45¢ vs Dec '26 · n=3	too few
Pennsylvania	+35¢ vs Dec '26 · n=3	too few
Tennessee	+12½¢ vs Dec '26 · n=4	too few
Colorado	+11¢ vs Dec '26 · n=26	−75¢ vs Nov '26 · n=5
Georgia	−15¢ vs Dec '26 · n=6	too few
Kentucky	−15¢ vs Dec '26 · n=6	−15¢ vs Nov '26 · n=5
South Carolina	−15¢ vs Dec '26 · n=3	too few
Oklahoma	−20¢ vs Dec '26 · n=41	−60¢ vs Nov '26 · n=40
Missouri	−22½¢ vs Dec '26 · n=20	−30¢ vs Nov '26 · n=15
Indiana	−30¢ vs Dec '26 · n=40	−42¢ vs Nov '26 · n=31
Illinois	−31¢ vs Dec '26 · n=185	−40¢ vs Nov '26 · n=125
Kansas	−35¢ vs Dec '26 · n=197	−65¢ vs Nov '26 · n=176
Ohio	−35¢ vs Dec '26 · n=54	−42¢ vs Nov '26 · n=57
Nebraska	−38¢ vs Dec '26 · n=185	−65¢ vs Nov '26 · n=143
Iowa	−40¢ vs Dec '26 · n=314	−65¢ vs Nov '26 · n=275
Michigan	−50¢ vs Dec '26 · n=15	−60¢ vs Nov '26 · n=12
Wisconsin	−55¢ vs Dec '26 · n=47	−84¢ vs Nov '26 · n=33
Minnesota	−70¢ vs Dec '26 · n=135	−75¢ vs Nov '26 · n=136
North Dakota	−80¢ vs Dec '26 · n=37	−72½¢ vs Nov '26 · n=42
South Dakota	−80¢ vs Dec '26 · n=88	−70¢ vs Nov '26 · n=69
Arkansas	too few	−37½¢ vs Nov '26 · n=12

Too few elevators on one futures month for a middle number: Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Montana, New York, Oregon, Wyoming.

What these numbers cover. The state numbers are a sample: the elevators the AGSIST network reads, not every elevator. The USDA rows are regional: USDA tracks named markets and origins, not individual elevators, so they explain the regional move your bid rides on. They can’t tell you your own elevator’s spread. Basis is in $/bu against futures. A negative number is normal in most regions most of the time; what matters is the gap from normal.

Questions

Why is my basis so wide right now?

Check three things on this page: your region against its normal, the barge bars, and the storage table. When freight runs above normal, interior bids drop to pay the trip to the export market. When there is more grain than bin space, elevators bid less to slow it down. Local demand, like a plant nearby or a shuttle loader bidding, moves the rest.

Is my elevator ripping me off?

Compare your bid’s basis to your region’s number above. If your elevator is a nickel behind the region, that’s a local conversation. If the whole region is a dollar under its normal, as happens in high-freight years, no elevator in the county could bid it away.

When does basis usually strengthen?

Each region has its own seasonal pattern, so this page compares each region to its own same-week history instead of one national rule. Basis often firms once harvest traffic clears and when processors need grain, but check your own region’s pattern.

Where do these numbers come from?

The state numbers are the elevators the AGSIST network reads. The regional basis, barge rates and bid spreads are USDA AgTransport open data (weekly basis since 2007), refreshed here every Friday. The storage table is USDA NASS. Sources are linked below.

Source

USDA Agricultural Transportation Open Data (agtransport.usda.gov): grain basis (v85y-3hep, weekly since 2007), barge rates (deqi-uken), grain price spreads (an4w-mnp7), transport cost indicators (8uye-ieij). Refreshed on AGSIST every Friday; series and 5-year same-week averages computed by scripts/fetch_transport.py in the AGSIST repository. State numbers: the AGSIST elevator network (dnilgis/bids), boards read directly, built by scripts/build_cash_bid_pages.py with the one method in scripts/basis_method.py; the data. Storage: USDA NASS Quick Stats, built by scripts/fetch_storage.py. Related: local cash bids · county cash rent.