📅 Wheat Seasonal Price TendencyHistorical pattern · current month highlighted · hover for context
Wheat prices typically hit seasonal lows in June–July (Northern Hemisphere harvest pressure) and tend to recover into fall and peak around April–May as pre-harvest uncertainty builds. Black Sea supply and weather events can significantly override these tendencies.
📋 Contract Specs (SRW)
ExchangeCBOT / CME Group
Contract Size5,000 bushels
Tick Size¼¢/bu ($12.50/contract)
SymbolZW (SRW)
Active MonthsMar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec
📅 Key Reports
WASDEMonthly (~10th) · highest impact
Crop ProgressWeekly Mon 4pm (Apr–Nov)
Winter Wheat SeedingsJanuary
Export SalesThu 7:30am CT
Black Sea updatesWatch daily
💡 Key Price Signals
Feed spreadWheat minus corn $/bu
Parity range<$0.25 activates feed demand
Three classesSRW (CBOT), HRW (KC), HRS (MGE)
Typical breakeven$5.00–$7.00/bu avg
🌍 Global Wheat Context
#1 exporterRussia
Black Sea share~30% of global exports
Top importersEgypt, Indonesia, Turkey
US export rank~4th globally
📚 Understanding Wheat Prices
Futures vs Cash — Two Different Numbers
The CBOT futures price (ZW) is what speculators and processors trade on the exchange — the global benchmark for soft red winter wheat. The cash bid is what your local elevator will actually pay you today for wheat delivered to their facility. The gap between the two is your basis, and it's the number that puts money in your pocket. Typical SRW basis ranges from -$0.20 to -$0.50/bu, varying by location, season, and local supply/demand. AGSIST shows both side by side so you can see whether your local market is firm or soft relative to the exchange.
Three Wheats — Knowing the Difference
The US trades three major wheat classes. CBOT soft red winter (SRW, ZW) is the global price benchmark and primarily grown in the Eastern corn belt and Mid-South. Kansas City HRW (KW) is the hard red winter used for most bread flour, grown in the Southern Plains. Minneapolis HRS (MWE) is the high-protein spring wheat grown in the northern plains and Minnesota/Wisconsin border region. Understanding which class you produce or buy matters — basis and price behavior can diverge significantly across the three classes.
The Corn/Wheat Feed Spread
When CBOT wheat trades within $0.25–$0.50/bu of CBOT corn, feedlots and poultry producers begin substituting wheat for corn in rations, creating a natural demand floor under wheat prices. This spread, shown live above, is one of the most reliable support signals in the wheat market. A spread above $1.50 means corn is the feed of choice and wheat loses that demand support. Watch for the spread to narrow sharply during harvest pressure periods — it often signals the seasonal low.
Black Sea Supply & Global Competition
Russia alone supplies roughly 20–25% of global wheat exports, and Russia plus Ukraine combined account for about 30%. US soft red winter wheat competes directly against Black Sea origins in export markets. Russian export restrictions, seasonal tariffs, or Black Sea weather disruptions can add $0.50–2.00/bu to global wheat benchmarks almost overnight. This global supply sensitivity makes wheat more geopolitically volatile than corn or soybeans — a unique characteristic serious wheat producers track daily alongside weather.
❓ Wheat Prices — Common Questions
What's the difference between wheat futures and cash bids?
CBOT wheat futures (ZW) are the global price benchmark — what speculators and processors trade on the exchange. Cash bids are what your local elevator will actually pay you today for wheat delivered. The difference between the two is your basis, typically -$0.20 to -$0.50/bu in the SRW belt, varying by location, season, and local supply/demand. AGSIST shows both: live CBOT futures plus a 50-ZIP grid sample of cash bids across the grain belt with basis vs futures. The basis card above will show your nearest sample location once you set your ZIP.
What is the wheat futures price today?
The live price above shows CBOT front-month soft red winter wheat (ZW), refreshed every 30 minutes. The "Today's Market Read" block synthesizes price position, the corn/wheat feed spread signal, price vs breakeven tier, and seasonal context — updated with every price refresh. The live feed spread calculation is a unique feature not commonly available on free grain pages.
What is the corn/wheat feed spread and why does it matter?
The corn/wheat spread is the price difference in $/bu between CBOT wheat and corn. When wheat trades within $0.25–0.50 of corn, feedlots, poultry producers, and cattle operations begin substituting wheat for corn in rations, creating a natural demand floor under wheat. A spread above $1.50 means corn is the feed of choice and wheat loses that demand support. The feed spread widget above updates live with every price refresh and shows which zone you're currently in.
What is CBOT soft red winter wheat vs hard red winter or hard red spring?
CBOT ZW is soft red winter (SRW) wheat — lower protein, used for crackers, pastry, and flat breads, primarily grown in the Eastern corn belt. Kansas City KW is hard red winter (HRW) — higher protein, most bread flour, grown in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas. Minneapolis MWE is hard red spring (HRS) — highest protein, specialty milling, grown in the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. Basis and price behavior can diverge significantly across classes depending on class-specific supply and demand conditions.
What is a typical wheat production breakeven?
Full cost of production for winter wheat typically ranges $5.00–7.00/bu depending on land costs, input costs, and expected yield. Below $5.00, most operations lose money on a full-cost basis. $5.00–$6.00 covers variable costs but is thin on land rent and fixed overhead. $6.00–$7.00 supports profitable production for most well-run operations. Above $7.00, strong forward selling opportunities typically exist. Use AGSIST's breakeven calculator to input your specific costs and yield expectations.
How does Black Sea production affect US wheat prices?
Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and Russia plus Ukraine together supply roughly 30% of globally traded wheat. US soft red winter wheat competes directly against Black Sea origins in Egyptian and other import tenders. Geopolitical disruptions, Russian export restrictions or tariffs, or drought in Black Sea growing regions can add $0.50–$2.00/bu to CBOT wheat almost immediately. This geopolitical sensitivity is wheat's key distinguishing characteristic compared to corn or soybeans, and warrants daily monitoring.
When is the best seasonal window to sell wheat?
CBOT wheat historically makes its seasonal low in June–July when Northern Hemisphere harvest peaks globally and supply is greatest. Prices tend to recover into fall and winter as old-crop stocks tighten, then peak around April–May as pre-harvest uncertainty about the coming crop builds a risk premium. The seasonal chart above illustrates these tendencies by month. Black Sea supply surprises, geopolitical events, and export policy decisions routinely override seasonal patterns in any given year — wheat is more news-sensitive than corn or soybeans.
What USDA reports move wheat prices the most?
The USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), released monthly around the 10th, is the primary report for wheat — particularly global ending stocks and the US export pace. Weekly Export Sales and Inspections (Thursday 7:30am CT) track US competitiveness against Black Sea origins. The January Winter Wheat Seedings report establishes the new crop area estimate. Weekly Crop Progress (Monday 4pm CT, April–November) tracks winter wheat dormancy, green-up, and harvest progress. See AGSIST's USDA Calendar for all upcoming dates.
When is CBOT wheat open for trading?
CBOT wheat futures trade electronically Sunday through Friday — overnight session 7:00 PM to 7:45 AM CT, day session 8:30 AM to 1:20 PM CT. AGSIST refreshes prices every 30 minutes on weekdays. Significant overnight moves are common in wheat — Black Sea geopolitical news and Southern Hemisphere weather reports frequently release outside US business hours, making early-morning price checks valuable for wheat producers.
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Prices from Yahoo Finance via GitHub Actions (delayed ~15 min). Chart shows Capital.com WHEAT CFD which tracks CBOT wheat futures; for exact ZW1! data use the TradingView link. Not financial advice. Verify with your elevator or broker before making marketing decisions.