Farm program · 2026 and 2027 crop years
ARC or PLC for 2026 and 2027: decision calculator
Quick answer. By our math from final USDA prices, the 2027 PLC effective reference prices are $4.34 for corn, $10.62 for soybeans and $6.35 for wheat (2026: $4.42, $10.71, $6.35). PLC pays if the national season-average price ends below that. ARC-CO pays when county revenue falls below 90% of its benchmark. The 2026 signup closes Dec 11, 2026; the 2027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
For a typical farm, 2026 corn, across 2,967 county and practice combinations: pick ARC-CO 1,439, leans ARC-CO 1,484, too close to call 44, leans PLC 0, pick PLC 0. Your own PLC yield moves the answer; the calculator below gives yours, with the expected payments. How this is figured.
FSA’s official ARC-CO benchmark yields for program year 2026 (FSA file as of Jan 16, 2026) cover 2,736 counties.
Pick the year, crop and county, type your PLC yield, and set a price. The table shows which program pays more per base acre across a range of prices and county yields. It does not forecast the price. You set it.
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
When is the ARC/PLC signup for 2026 and 2027?
- 2026: Sept 16 to Dec 11, 2026. The 2026 election must be unanimous among the producers on the farm.
- 2027: Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027. From 2027 you can change the election crop by crop in each year’s signup.
- Multi-year contract, 2026 through 2031: one signature covers the years, and it stays in force while the farm’s records and producers do not change. What it saves is paperwork; the yearly chance to switch programs from 2027 on still applies through the annual election. If the operator, owners or farm records change, it ends and you enroll yearly. Some advisers prefer signing each year so nothing is assumed.
- If you don’t sign: for 2026, a farm with no election by Dec 11, 2026 keeps its 2025 election and gets no 2026 payment.
- When payments come: after Oct 1, 2027 for 2026 crops; after Oct 1, 2028 for 2027 crops.
2026 and 2027 effective reference prices
| Crop | 2026 ERP | 2027 ERP (est.) | 2026 ARC price | 2027 ARC price (est.) | Statutory now | Before 2025 | Loan rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | $4.42 | $4.34 | $5.03 | $4.96 | $4.10 | $3.70 | $2.42 |
| Soybeans | $10.71 | $10.62 | $12.17 | $12.11 | $10.00 | $8.40 | $6.82 |
| Wheat | $6.35 | $6.35 | $6.98 | $6.98 | $6.35 | $5.50 | $3.72 |
| Sorghum | not computed | $4.40 | $3.95 | $2.42 | |||
| Barley | not computed | $5.45 | $4.95 | $2.75 | |||
| Oats | not computed | $2.65 | $2.40 | $2.20 | |||
$ per bushel. ERP = PLC effective reference price. ARC price = ARC-CO benchmark price. Est. = our math from final USDA prices; FSA publishes the official 2027 figures. 2026 figures match those published by FSA-based sources and FSA’s 2026 county file.
Show the math for 2027
The effective reference price is the lesser of 115% of the statutory price, or the greater of the statutory price and 88% of the Olympic average season-average price for the five most recent crop years (2021 to 2025 for 2027; 2020 to 2024 for 2026).
Corn. Season-average prices 2021: $6.00 · 2022: $6.54 · 2023: $4.55 · 2024: $4.24 · 2025: $4.16 (struck: the high and low year). Average of the middle three: $4.9300. 88% of that is $4.34, above the $4.10 statutory price and under the $4.72 cap (115%).
Soybeans. Season-average prices 2021: $13.30 · 2022: $14.20 · 2023: $12.40 · 2024: $10.00 · 2025: $10.50 (struck: the high and low year). Average of the middle three: $12.0667. 88% of that is $10.62, above the $10.00 statutory price and under the $11.50 cap (115%).
Wheat. Season-average prices 2021: $7.63 · 2022: $8.83 · 2023: $6.96 · 2024: $5.52 · 2025: $5.06 (struck: the high and low year). Average of the middle three: $6.7033. 88% of the average is $5.90, below the $6.35 statutory price, so the statutory price holds: $6.35.
The ARC-CO benchmark price uses the same five years, with any year below the 2027 effective reference price raised to it:
Corn. 2021: $6.00 · 2022: $6.54 · 2023: $4.55 · 2024: $4.34 (raised from $4.24) · 2025: $4.34 (raised from $4.16). Drop the high ($6.54) and low ($4.34); the middle three average $4.96.
Soybeans. 2021: $13.30 · 2022: $14.20 · 2023: $12.40 · 2024: $10.62 (raised from $10.00) · 2025: $10.62 (raised from $10.50). Drop the high ($14.20) and low ($10.62); the middle three average $12.11.
Wheat. 2021: $7.63 · 2022: $8.83 · 2023: $6.96 · 2024: $6.35 (raised from $5.52) · 2025: $6.35 (raised from $5.06). Drop the high ($8.83) and low ($6.35); the middle three average $6.98.
What changed for 2026 and 2027?
As of Oct 6, 2026. The 2025 law (One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Pub. L. 119-21) and FSA’s January 2026 rule:
- Higher reference prices: corn $3.70 to $4.10, soybeans $8.40 to $10.00, wheat $5.50 to $6.35, for 2025 through 2030.
- Effective reference price: 88% of the Olympic average (was 85%), capped at 115% of statutory.
- ARC-CO: guarantee 90% of benchmark revenue (was 86%); payments up to 12% of benchmark (was 10%).
- New base acres: up to 30 million, from 2019 to 2023 plantings, cut 3.69% on the new acres only. New base takes the farm’s existing PLC yield for that crop, or the county average PLC yield if the farm has none.
- 2025 only: farms got the higher of ARC-CO or PLC automatically. That does not carry into 2026 or 2027.
- SCO: no longer tied to the ARC/PLC election; for 2026 the band to 90% is sold as ECO, and SCO goes to 90% in 2027. Ask your crop insurance agent.
- Payment limit: $155,000 per person, indexed (2025: $160,000). Actively engaged members of LLCs and S corporations can each carry a limit.
- Signup moved: the 2026 window opened Sept 16, 2026, later than the usual spring signup.
How do ARC-CO and PLC pay?
- PLC rate = effective reference price − the higher of the national season-average price or the loan rate. Paid on 85% of base acres × your PLC payment yield.
- ARC-CO rate = 90% of benchmark revenue − actual county revenue, never more than 12% of benchmark revenue. Paid on 85% of base acres.
- Benchmark revenue = FSA county benchmark yield × benchmark price. Actual revenue = actual county yield × the higher of the season-average price or the loan rate.
A worked example (made-up corn farm, 2027 prices)
County benchmark yield 180 bu, PLC yield 150 bu, 100 base acres, a county yield of 162 bu and a $4.00 season-average price.
- PLC. Rate = $4.34 − $4.00 = $0.34/bu. Per base acre: $0.34 × 150 bu PLC yield × 85% = $43.35.
- ARC-CO. Benchmark revenue = 180 bu × $4.96 = $892.80. Guarantee (90%) = $803.52. Actual revenue = 162 bu × $4.00 = $648.00. Shortfall $155.52, capped at 12% of benchmark ($107.14): $107.14 per acre before the 85% factor; $91.07 per base acre.
- On 100 base acres: PLC $4,335, ARC-CO $9,107, before the 5.7% sequestration cut.
- Where they cross at a 162 bu county yield: PLC pays more at $3.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.63 to $4.95. Neither pays at $4.96 or higher.
What should I check before I sign?
- Each crop, each farm number. You elect ARC-CO or PLC crop by crop on each FSA farm. Run them one at a time.
- Rented ground. On a cash lease the tenant gets the payment unless agreed otherwise. On a share lease landlord and tenant split it by share and both sign.
- 10 base acres. A farm with 10 or fewer total base acres gets no payment, unless the producer is socially disadvantaged, limited resource, a veteran or a beginning farmer.
- Income rule. The $900,000 average adjusted gross income limit still applies to ARC and PLC. The new exception for those with 75% of gross income from farming covers certain conservation and disaster programs, not ARC or PLC.
- Payment limit. Per person across all crops and farms, not per farm. Sequestration (5.7% lately) comes off before the limit.
- ARC-IC (individual coverage, whole farm) also exists. This tool does not model it.
Where do I find my county’s ARC-CO benchmark yield?
FSA’s official ARC-CO benchmark yields for program year 2026 (FSA file as of Jan 16, 2026) cover 2,736 counties. FSA’s benchmark is the Olympic average of the county’s five most recent yields (2020 to 2024 for 2026), with low years raised to 80% of the county T-yield and each year trend-adjusted. FSA has not posted 2027 benchmarks; building them needs RMA’s 2027 trend factors, which are not out, so the 2027 view uses FSA’s official 2026 benchmark, labeled. Counties FSA does not list get no page here: ask the county office for “the ARC-CO benchmark yield for my county, crop and practice” or check FSA’s program data.
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How the ARC or PLC verdict is figured
The verdict compares what each program is expected to pay per base acre across 10 past years (2015 to 2024), not one guess. Every scenario is a real year: that year’s price outcome and that year’s county yield, together.
- 2026 price, corn and soybeans. Start: USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average price, $4.70 corn and $12.00 soybeans (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026). Spread: how far each past year’s final season-average price (NASS) ended from that October’s futures average (RMA’s harvest price, listed on our price tracker), scaled to average 1. That is the uncertainty actually left in October. We use the futures record because USDA’s month-by-month projection history is not on file; a study of corn found WASDE and futures-based forecasts about equally accurate (WASDE lower error in 9 of 16 forecast months: Hoffman, Etienne, Irwin, Colino and Toasa (2015), Forecast performance of WASDE price projections for U.S. corn).
- 2027 price, corn and soybeans. Start: Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures: $4.91 corn; soybeans Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures: $12.17. Spread: each past year’s change in the final season-average price, scaled to average 1, because 2027 is a whole year out. The gap is measured from February futures (RMA’s projected price), about seven months before harvest; today is about thirteen months before the 2027 harvest.
- Wheat, both years. No futures history on file, so USDA’s projected $6.30 (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026) times each past year’s change in the final season-average price. That band is wider than what is left to learn about 2026/27, which makes “too close to call” more likely, not less.
- County yield. For the same year, the county’s yield against its benchmark, from FSA’s own files: the five window years in the program year 2021 file (2015 to 2019) and the 2026 file (2020 to 2024), each divided by that file’s benchmark. FSA’s yields already have the 80% T-yield floor and trend adjustment. A county with fewer than 8 years uses its state’s average for that crop and practice (at least 3 counties a year).
- The call. With at least 8 years: Pick when the expected gap is more than twice its uncertainty from those years (and at least $2.00 per base acre) and the same program paid more in more years; Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and that program paid more in more years, but the gap is within the normal swing; otherwise too close to call. Expected dollars are always shown beside the call.
- Typical farm (county pages): FSA’s county average PLC yield and FSA’s official benchmark, non-irrigated first. Where the county average PLC yield is above a practice’s benchmark (it covers all practices), no typical verdict is given for that practice.
Scenario prices (10 years)
| Year | 2026 corn | 2026 soybeans | 2026 wheat | 2027 corn | 2027 soybeans | 2027 wheat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $4.47 | $12.12 | $5.14 | $4.66 | $10.69 | $5.14 |
| 2016 | $4.56 | $11.72 | $5.01 | $4.44 | $12.77 | $5.01 |
| 2017 | $4.56 | $11.55 | $7.64 | $4.77 | $11.89 | $7.64 |
| 2018 | $4.65 | $11.90 | $6.89 | $5.13 | $10.97 | $6.89 |
| 2019 | $4.32 | $11.18 | $5.59 | $4.71 | $12.20 | $5.59 |
| 2020 | $5.38 | $12.36 | $6.95 | $6.07 | $15.21 | $6.95 |
| 2021 | $5.29 | $13.05 | $9.52 | $6.32 | $14.86 | $9.52 |
| 2022 | $4.52 | $12.41 | $7.29 | $5.20 | $12.88 | $7.29 |
| 2023 | $4.42 | $11.66 | $4.97 | $3.32 | $10.54 | $4.97 |
| 2024 | $4.83 | $12.03 | $5.00 | $4.45 | $9.73 | $5.00 |
Season-average price used in each scenario year, $/bu.
Typical-farm verdicts, all counties
| Year, crop | Pick PLC | Leans PLC | Too close | Leans ARC-CO | Pick ARC-CO | Too few years | No typical farm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 corn | 0 | 0 | 44 | 1,484 | 1,439 | 0 | 296 |
| 2026 soybeans | 0 | 0 | 471 | 1,716 | 288 | 3 | 220 |
| 2026 wheat | 160 | 731 | 1,104 | 317 | 150 | 1 | 311 |
| 2027 corn | 0 | 18 | 763 | 1,964 | 222 | 0 | 296 |
| 2027 soybeans | 0 | 1 | 252 | 1,642 | 580 | 3 | 220 |
| 2027 wheat | 160 | 731 | 1,104 | 317 | 150 | 1 | 311 |
County and practice combinations. Your own PLC yield moves the answer; run it.
What each program paid, nationally, per base acre
| Year | Crop | ERP | Final MYA | PLC rate | PLC $/base ac | ARC-CO $/base ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Corn | $3.70 | $3.56 | $0.14 | $17.03 | n/a |
| 2019 | Soybeans | $8.40 | $8.57 | none | none | n/a |
| 2019 | Wheat | $5.50 | $4.58 | $0.92 | $32.71 | n/a |
| 2020 | Corn | $3.70 | $4.53 | none | none | n/a |
| 2020 | Soybeans | $8.40 | $10.80 | none | none | n/a |
| 2020 | Wheat | $5.50 | $5.05 | $0.45 | $16.00 | n/a |
| 2021 | Corn | $3.70 | $6.00 | none | none | $0.64 |
| 2021 | Soybeans | $8.40 | $13.30 | none | none | $0.34 |
| 2021 | Wheat | $5.50 | $7.63 | none | none | $3.74 |
| 2022 | Corn | $3.70 | $6.54 | none | none | $1.65 |
| 2022 | Soybeans | $8.40 | $14.20 | none | none | $0.88 |
| 2022 | Wheat | $5.50 | $8.83 | none | none | $2.17 |
| 2023 | Corn | $3.70 | $4.55 | none | none | n/a |
| 2023 | Soybeans | $8.40 | $12.40 | none | none | n/a |
| 2023 | Wheat | $5.50 | $6.96 | none | none | n/a |
| 2024 | Corn | $4.01 | $4.24 | none | none | n/a |
| 2024 | Soybeans | $9.26 | $10.00 | none | none | n/a |
| 2024 | Wheat | $5.50 | $5.52 | none | none | n/a |
| 2025 | Corn | $4.42 | $4.16 | $0.26 | $31.62 | n/a |
| 2025 | Soybeans | $10.71 | $10.50 | $0.21 | $7.30 | n/a |
| 2025 | Wheat | $6.35 | $5.06 | $1.29 | $45.87 | n/a |
PLC: ERP minus the final season-average price (NASS), never below the loan rate, times FSA’s 2025 national average PLC yield (corn 143.1, soybeans 40.9, wheat 41.8 bu, weighted by enrolled base) times 85%. 2019 to 2024 use the 2018 law (statutory $3.70, $8.40, $5.50; 85% escalator); 2025 the 2025 law. ARC-CO: FSA’s county payment rates from its program year files, irrigated and non-irrigated averaged equally where FSA splits a county, weighted by each county’s enrolled base, times 85%. n/a: FSA’s county file for that program year is not in our data (2021 and 2022 are). National averages hide wide county differences.
Questions farmers ask
Should I pick ARC or PLC for 2026 or 2027?
It comes down to where the season-average price lands and how your county yields. PLC pays when the national price ends below the effective reference price (2027 est.: $4.34 corn, $10.62 soybeans, $6.35 wheat). ARC-CO pays when county revenue falls below 90% of its benchmark, so it helps more when the county yield drops while the price holds. The calculator gives a verdict for your farm (pick PLC, pick ARC-CO, or too close to call) with the expected payment per base acre for each, figured across past years' prices and your county's yields.
What is the 2027 effective reference price for corn?
$4.34 per bushel by our math from final USDA prices (est.): 88% of the 2021 to 2025 Olympic average season-average price, above the $4.10 statutory price. Soybeans $10.62, wheat $6.35. For 2026 the figures are $4.42, $10.71 and $6.35, matching published FSA-based figures. FSA publishes the official 2027 numbers.
When is the ARC/PLC deadline?
2026: September 16 to December 11, 2026. 2027: November 2, 2026 to March 15, 2027. The 2026 deadline comes first.
What happens if I don't enroll?
For 2026, a farm with no election by December 11, 2026 keeps its 2025 election but gets no 2026 payment. Keeping your old choice still takes a signed contract.
Can I sign a multi-year contract?
Yes, for 2026 through 2031. It stays in force while the farm's records and producers do not change. The 2026 election itself must be unanimous among the producers on the farm; from 2027 the election can be changed crop by crop in each year's signup.
How is ARC-CO paid?
ARC-CO compares county revenue (county yield times the higher of the national season-average price or the loan rate) with 90% of the county benchmark revenue. The shortfall is paid, up to 12% of benchmark revenue, on 85% of your base acres. A farm with irrigated and non-irrigated county figures is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage.
Can I buy SCO if I pick ARC?
Under the 2025 law, yes: SCO is no longer tied to your ARC or PLC election. For 2026 the coverage up to 90% is sold as ECO; SCO itself goes to 90% in 2027. Confirm the details for your crop with your crop insurance agent.
Who gets the payment on rented ground?
On a cash lease the tenant gets the ARC or PLC payment unless the two agree otherwise. On a share lease the landlord and tenant split it by their shares, and both sign the contract.
When do the payments come?
After the marketing year ends and USDA publishes the season-average price: after October 1, 2027 for 2026 crops and after October 1, 2028 for 2027 crops.
What is the ARC/PLC payment limit?
$155,000 per person or legal entity in the 2025 law, adjusted for inflation; USDA put 2025 at $160,000. The 2026 and 2027 figures are not out. The limit is per person across all crops and farms.
This is an estimate, not a USDA determination. Payments depend on FSA’s official yields, prices and your farm records. Read FSA’s ARC/PLC page, its program data, or find your county FSA office. Dollars are before the 5.7% sequestration cut. Run an extension office or co-op site? Embed the calculator.
Sources
- FSA ARC/PLC program data (official county benchmark files)
- Federal Register 2026-00313, Jan 12, 2026 (FSA rule for the 2025 law)
- 7 CFR 1412.3, definitions (eCFR)
- 7 CFR 1412.54, leases and division of payment (eCFR)
- USDA ERS, Title I crop commodity program provisions
- FSA ARC and PLC fact sheet, Sept 2025
- FSA ARC and PLC fact sheet, Dec 2024 (irrigated weighting)
- FSA, 2025 national average loan rates
- FSA, 2026 marketing assistance loan rates (Apr 8, 2026)
- FSA, ARC/PLC contract appendix (benchmark yield rules)
- farmdoc daily, Feb 2024 (2024 ERPs and benchmark prices)
- farmdoc daily, Jul 2025 (2025 law, commodity title)
- farmdoc daily, Jul 2025 (new base acre provisions)
- Hoffman, Etienne, Irwin, Colino and Toasa (2015), Forecast performance of WASDE price projections for U.S. corn
- USDA WASDE-676, Oct 9, 2026
- American Farm Bureau Market Intel (2026 ERPs and benchmark prices)
- Alabama Cooperative Extension, Title I program changes
- DTN, Sept 2, 2026: 2025 payment limit $160,000
- Center for Commercial Agriculture: LLC and S corp payment limits
- Iowa State CALT: new payment limitation and eligibility rules
- Farm CPA Report, sequestration and the 2025 limit
- Texas A&M AgriLife, lease payment structures
- RMA bulletin MGR-25-006 (2025 law crop insurance changes)
- Sen. Hoeven: RMA implements 2025 law (ECO 90% for 2026)
- RMA, 2027 SCO endorsement summary of changes
- USDA, Sept 15, 2026: 2026 and 2027 ARC/PLC enrollment
- DTN, Sept 17, 2026: USDA opens ARC/PLC enrollment
- Colorado Wheat, 2025 law provisions table
- USDA NASS Quick Stats (season-average prices)
Related: Farm bill tracker · Pre-sell calculator · Break-even calculator · Harvest price tracker