What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.
Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?
Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.
Your main crops
Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet
Soybeans
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
2027: leans ARC-CO
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
2027: ARC-CO
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
2027: ARC-CO
Corn
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: close, either one
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: close, either one
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: close, either one
Wheat
Either oneClose
They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Smaller crops here
Each has under 4,500 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).
Barley
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $13 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $13 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $12 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Oats
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $20 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $20 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $20 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Sunflower seed
Either oneClose
They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if sunflower seed averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Either oneClose
They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if sunflower seed averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Either oneClose
PLC comes out about $2 more per base acre, but it swings more than that from year to year.
PLC only pays if sunflower seed averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Canola
Either oneClose
They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.
PLC only pays if canola averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.
PLC only pays if canola averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.
PLC only pays if canola averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Deadlines
Dec 112026 signup ends Dec 11, 2026.
Nov 2 to Mar 152027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
Skip itDo nothing for 2026 and that farm gets no 2026 payment.
SignEvery owner and operator on the farm signs.
BringBring the farm’s FSA-156EZ. It lists the base acres and PLC yields.
2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Mahnomen County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves.
Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: soybeans $12.00, corn $4.70, wheat $6.30, barley $5.70, oats $3.35; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: sunflower seed $0.2470, canola $0.2450). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average
price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, barley, oats, sunflower seed, canola have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.
Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.
2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, barley, oats, canola: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sunflower seed wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (soybeans 32.1 bu; corn 125.4 bu; wheat 55.9 bu; barley 55.9 bu; oats 60.7 bu; sunflower seed 1,288.4 lb; canola 975.9 lb) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the
county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it.Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error
(2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in
at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop
Practice
Year
PLC
ARC-CO
Answer
Soybeans
All practices
2026
$0
$0
Neither pays
Soybeans
All practices
2027
$2.59
$8.58
ARC-CO
Corn
All practices
2026
$0.89
$5.24
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
All practices
2027
$9.74
$10.64
Either one
Wheat
All practices
2026
$10.30
$10.31
Either one
Wheat
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Barley
All practices
2026
$3.89
$16.41
Leans ARC-CO
Barley
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Oats
All practices
2026
$0
$20.44
Leans ARC-CO
Oats
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Sunflower seed
All practices
2026
$1.79
$0
Either one
Sunflower seed
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Canola
All practices
2026
$1.92
$1.65
Either one
Canola
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
FSA lists a benchmark here but no enrolled base for dry peas.
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
Soybeans 2026 in Mahnomen County: Neither expected to pay
All practices, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $106.14 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $49.32 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Pick ARC-CO (expected $2.59 PLC vs $8.58 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 32.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 39.73 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 32.1 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)39.73 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$483.51/ac
Guarantee (90%)$435.16/ac
Max payment (12%)$58.02/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$49.32
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 44.3 · 2021: 32.5 (dropped) · 2022: 44.77 (dropped) · 2023: 40.58 · 2024: 34.32 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 39.73 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 40.6 bu, reaching its cap below 35.2 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 39.73 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 23.8 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70% 27.8 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80% 31.8 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90% 35.8 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100% 39.7 bu
PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.25 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
41.62
$8.95
29.48
none
2022
42.39
$9.12
43.09
none
2023
39.77
$9.57
39.32
none
2024
41.34
$11.12
33.48
$45.97
2025
40.47
$12.17
39.23
$31.35
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Corn 2026 in Mahnomen County: Leans ARC-CO
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.35 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.89 PLC vs $5.24 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $213.18 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $93.56 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.89 and ARC-CO $5.24 per base acre.
2027: Close, either one: about $0.90 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $9.74 PLC vs $10.64 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 2). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 125.4 bu (program year 2025) and the official 182.35 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 125.4 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)182.35 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$917.22/ac
Guarantee (90%)$825.50/ac
Max payment (12%)$110.07/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$93.56
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 179.93 · 2021: 136.39 (dropped) · 2022: 195.41 (dropped) · 2023: 184.26 · 2024: 182.85 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 182.35 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 186.8 bu, reaching its cap below 161.9 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 182.35 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 109.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 127.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 145.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 164.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 182.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
178.11
$3.70
121.49
none
2022
178.54
$3.70
183.49
none
2023
169.78
$3.98
175.32
none
2024
174.66
$4.85
176.89
none
2025
173.78
$5.03
195.94
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Wheat 2026 in Mahnomen County: Close, either one
All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $0.02 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $10.30 PLC vs $10.31 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 2 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $124.96 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $48.09 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $10.30 and ARC-CO $10.31 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 55.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 67.55 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 55.9 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)67.55 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$471.50/ac
Guarantee (90%)$424.35/ac
Max payment (12%)$56.58/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$48.09
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 67.15 · 2021: 61.24 · 2022: 75.36 (dropped) · 2023: 74.27 · 2024: 52.68 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 67.55 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 66.8 bu, reaching its cap below 57.9 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 67.55 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 40.5 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70% 47.3 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80% 54.0 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90% 60.8 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.66. Both pay the same at $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100% 67.6 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
68.51
$5.50
59.54
none
2022
66.78
$5.50
74.00
none
2023
62.97
$5.50
73.25
none
2024
63.31
$6.21
51.54
$39.32
2025
67.21
$6.98
68.40
$56.30
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $12.53 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $3.89 PLC vs $16.41 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $134.47 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $57.85 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $3.89 and ARC-CO $16.41 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 55.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 88.20 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 55.9 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)88.20 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.43
Benchmark revenue$567.13/ac
Guarantee (90%)$510.41/ac
Max payment (12%)$68.06/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$57.85
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 87.28 · 2021: 84.07 (dropped) · 2022: 85.9 · 2023: 95.2 (dropped) · 2024: 91.42 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 88.20 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 91.5 bu, reaching its cap below 79.3 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 88.20 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 52.9 bu
PLC pays more at $4.29 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.30 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
70% 61.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.47 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.48 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
80% 70.6 bu
PLC pays more at $4.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.62 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
90% 79.4 bu
PLC pays more at $4.72 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.73 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
100% 88.2 bu
PLC pays more at $4.80 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.81 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
80.67
$4.95
84.07
none
2022
82.00
$4.95
85.90
none
2023
82.69
$4.95
95.20
none
2024
85.66
$5.07
91.42
none
2025
85.75
$6.10
90.50
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $20.44 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $20.44 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $43.86 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $39.73 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $20.44 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 60.7 bu (program year 2025) and the official 98.85 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 60.7 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)98.85 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$389.47/ac
Guarantee (90%)$350.52/ac
Max payment (12%)$46.74/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$39.73
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 93.17 · 2021: 60.8 (dropped) · 2022: 87.5 · 2023: 115.87 · 2024: 117.64 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 98.85 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 114.9 bu, reaching its cap below 99.6 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 98.85 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 59.3 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70% 69.2 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80% 79.1 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90% 89.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100% 98.9 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
100.88
$2.55
50.50
none
2022
99.20
$2.67
87.50
none
2023
90.87
$2.75
115.87
none
2024
95.04
$3.38
117.64
none
2025
96.23
$3.84
98.77
$13.54
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Sunflower seed 2026 in Mahnomen County: Close, either one
All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.79 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $1.79 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $138.54 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $56.53 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2470, PLC is expected to pay $1.79 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 1,288.4 lb (program year 2025) and the official 2,206.44 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled sunflower seed base in this county: 1,288.4 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)2,206.44 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.2512
Benchmark revenue$554.26/ac
Guarantee (90%)$498.83/ac
Max payment (12%)$66.51/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$56.53
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1791 (dropped) · 2021: 2185.46 · 2022: 2593.81 (dropped) · 2023: 2553.84 · 2024: 1880.01 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 2,206.44 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 2,100.3 lb, reaching its cap below 1,820.3 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 2,206.44 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 1,323.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1872 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1873 to $0.2089. PLC pays more from $0.2090 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70% 1,544.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1944 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1945 to $0.1994. PLC pays more from $0.1995 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80% 1,765.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90% 1,985.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100% 2,206.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
1,617.15
$0.2015
2185.46
none
2022
1,631.15
$0.2015
2593.81
none
2023
1,812.15
$0.2053
2553.84
none
2024
1,843.97
$0.2308
1880.01
none
2025
2,176.77
$0.2510
2768.00
none
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $0.27 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $1.92 PLC vs $1.65 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $104.93 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $48.23 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 3 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2450, PLC is expected to pay $1.92 and ARC-CO $1.65 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 975.9 lb (program year 2025) and the official 1,822.27 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled canola base in this county: 975.9 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)1,822.27 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.2595
Benchmark revenue$472.88/ac
Guarantee (90%)$425.59/ac
Max payment (12%)$56.75/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$48.23
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1411 · 2021: 1303.2 (dropped) · 2022: 2082 · 2023: 2614.17 (dropped) · 2024: 1973.8 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,822.27 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 1,792.0 lb, reaching its cap below 1,553.0 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,822.27 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 1,093.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1856 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1857 to $0.2276. PLC pays more from $0.2277 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70% 1,275.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1930 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1931 to $0.2243. PLC pays more from $0.2244 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80% 1,457.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1985 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1986 to $0.2177. PLC pays more from $0.2178 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90% 1,640.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100% 1,822.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2022
1,797.05
$0.2015
2082.00
none
2023
1,717.05
$0.2015
2614.17
none
2024
1,717.05
$0.2337
1973.80
none
2025
1,726.45
$0.2595
2606.00
none
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Dry peas 2026 in Mahnomen County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 2877.17 (dropped) · 2021: 1520 (dropped) · 2022: 2058.5 · 2023: 2300 · 2024: 2431 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 2,263.17 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.1314/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 2,314.3 lb, reaching its cap below 2,005.7 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 2,263.17 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 1,357.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1015 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1016 to $0.1343. Neither pays at $0.1344 or higher.
70% 1,584.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1058 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1059 to $0.1343. Neither pays at $0.1344 or higher.
80% 1,810.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1090 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1091 to $0.1343. Neither pays at $0.1344 or higher.
90% 2,036.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1114 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1115 to $0.1343. Neither pays at $0.1344 or higher.
100% 2,263.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1134 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1135 to $0.1343. Neither pays at $0.1344 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2025
1,959.50
$0.1477
2660.48
none
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
Questions about Mahnomen County
Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Mahnomen County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $106.14 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $49.32 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Mahnomen County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Mahnomen County, Minnesota is 39.73 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Mahnomen County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.35 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.89 PLC vs $5.24 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $213.18 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $93.56 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.89 and ARC-CO $5.24 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Mahnomen County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Mahnomen County, Minnesota is 182.35 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Mahnomen County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $0.02 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $10.30 PLC vs $10.31 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 2 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $124.96 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $48.09 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $10.30 and ARC-CO $10.31 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Mahnomen County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Mahnomen County, Minnesota is 67.55 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for barley in Mahnomen County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $12.53 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $3.89 PLC vs $16.41 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $134.47 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $57.85 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $3.89 and ARC-CO $16.41 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for barley in Mahnomen County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for barley in Mahnomen County, Minnesota is 88.20 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.43 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for oats in Mahnomen County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $20.44 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $20.44 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $43.86 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $39.73 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $20.44 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Mahnomen County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Mahnomen County, Minnesota is 98.85 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for sunflower seed in Mahnomen County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $1.79 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $1.79 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $138.54 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $56.53 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2470, PLC is expected to pay $1.79 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Mahnomen County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Mahnomen County, Minnesota is 2,206.44 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2512 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for canola in Mahnomen County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $0.27 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $1.92 PLC vs $1.65 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1). PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $104.93 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $48.23 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 3 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2450, PLC is expected to pay $1.92 and ARC-CO $1.65 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for canola in Mahnomen County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for canola in Mahnomen County, Minnesota is 1,822.27 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2595 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for dry peas in Mahnomen County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for dry peas in Mahnomen County, Minnesota is 2,263.17 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.1493 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.