Grain on the move: is it getting cheaper or dearer to ship grain?

This week's freight

Higher barge rates, railcar bids and late car orders mean dearer, slower freight. Tons through the lock say how much grain is moving, not what it costs. Three years of each.

What it has meant for basis

The elevator's bid is roughly what grain is worth where it is going, minus the cost to get it there. So freight is one of the things inside your basis. Here is how closely the two have moved together, week by week, in regions that ship mostly by river and in regions that ship mostly by rail.

The elevators AGSIST reads, since June 2026

Our own record is the middle basis each week at the elevators we read in each state. It is short: we started keeping it on June 9, 2026. It is shown beside freight here, and will be tested the same way once it has enough weeks.

Moving together is not the same as one causing the other. Harvest, storage space, a plant bidding nearby and export demand all move basis too, and often at the same time as freight.

Three years of each

The dot is the latest week. The dashed line, where there is one, is zero.

How freight gets into your basis

• Barge. River elevators price grain to New Orleans. The barge rate is quoted as a percent of an old 1976 tariff; 100% is the old benchmark. When it runs high, as it does most harvests, river bids sit further under futures.
• Rail. Shuttle trains, about 100 cars or more, carry most grain from the Plains to the Pacific Northwest, Mexico and the Gulf. Elevators buy the right to a train ahead of time and trade it with each other. A high bid on that secondary market means trains are scarce, and the cost lands on the grain.
• Late cars. Car orders past due count cars a railroad owes and has not delivered. When they pile up, elevators fill and bids can drop until the cars show up.
• Ships. Ocean freight to Asia costs more from the Gulf than from the Pacific Northwest. When that gap widens, exporters pull grain west by rail, which helps bids in rail country.
• The river itself. Low water means lighter loads per barge and slower tows, which tends to push the barge rate up.

Your own basis also depends on local things none of this shows: a processor or ethanol plant nearby, bin space, and how badly the elevator wants your grain this week. See basis by state against normal and today's bids near you.

Where these numbers come from

• USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report: barge rates, secondary railcar market bids, ocean freight to Japan, vessel loadings and cost indicators, weekly on Thursdays. The report; data from USDA AgTransport.
• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Lock Performance Monitoring System: grain barge tons through the locks, posted weekly by USDA AMS (dataset).
• Surface Transportation Board, rail service data (EP 724): grain car orders past due and train speed that the Class I railroads file each week, posted by USDA AMS (late car orders, train speed).
• Association of American Railroads, weekly rail traffic: grain carloads, posted by USDA AMS (dataset).
• USDA Federal Grain Inspection Service: grain inspected for export by port region (dataset).
• U.S. Geological Survey: daily river stage, Mississippi River at St. Louis and Memphis.
• USDA AMS regional basis: weekly elevator basis by state (dataset), used for the long record above.
• The AGSIST elevator network: basis at the elevator bid boards we read each day, by state. Basis by state.

All of it is free public data; no key is needed to read any of it. We read it each Friday. A source that could not be read keeps its last good week here, marked old, and says why.