Zapata County, Texas
ARC or PLC: the short answer for Zapata County, Texas
What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.
Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?
Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.
FSA lists no enrolled base acres here for a crop with a benchmark, so there is no typical farm to figure. Run your own numbers below.
Deadlines
- Dec 112026 signup ends Dec 11, 2026.
- Nov 2 to Mar 152027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
- Skip itDo nothing for 2026 and that farm gets no 2026 payment.
- SignEvery owner and operator on the farm signs.
- BringBring the farm’s FSA-156EZ. It lists the base acres and PLC yields.
Counter sheet for the FSA office Share this county
Show the math
2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Zapata County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves. Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans.
2027.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield () and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it. Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error (2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
| Crop | Practice | Year | PLC | ARC-CO | Answer |
|---|
FSA lists a benchmark here but no enrolled base for seed cotton.
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
Seed cotton 2026 in Zapata County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even
FSA’s seed cotton price is its own weighted average of the upland cotton lint price and the cottonseed price. We use FSA’s seed cotton series as published and never build it from the lint price. All seed cotton counties.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1559.04 (dropped) · 2021: 965.76 (dropped) · 2022: 1488 · 2023: 1023.36 · 2024: 1559.04 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,356.79 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 1,253.4 lb, reaching its cap below 1,086.3 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,356.79 lb county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 814.1 lb | PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher. |
| 70% 949.8 lb | PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher. |
| 80% 1,085.4 lb | PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher. |
| 90% 1,221.1 lb | PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher. |
| 100% 1,356.8 lb | PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher. |
FSA history, all practices
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1,206.12 | $0.4311 | 73.99 | $62.40 |
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Nothing from FSA here for corn or soybeans or wheat. Ask the county FSA office for “the 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yield for my county, crop and practice (irrigated or non-irrigated)”, or look it up in FSA’s program data (file: ARC-CO benchmark yields and revenues, program year 2026). Then type it into the calculator.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
An estimate, not a USDA determination. Source: FSA ARC/PLC program data. Find your county office.
Printed from https://agsist.com/arc-plc/texas/zapata-county