Robertson County, Texas

ARC or PLC: the short answer for Robertson County, Texas

By Sigurd Lindquist, a Certified Crop Adviser (CCA).

What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.

Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?

Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.

Your main crops

Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet

Seed cotton · irrigated

PLCLeans

PLC comes out about $31 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.

Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Corn · non-irrigated

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $3 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.

PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.

Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: leans ARC-CO

Sorghum · non-irrigated

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $6 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.

Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Wheat

Either oneClose

They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.

PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Smaller crops here

Each has under 1,400 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).

Oats

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $10 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.

PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Soybeans · irrigated

Neither expected to payClose

Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).

PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.

Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.

2027: ARC-CO

Deadlines

Counter sheet for the FSA office Share this county

Show the math

2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Robertson County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves. Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: seed cotton $0.4114; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: corn $4.70, sorghum $4.50, wheat $6.30, oats $3.35, soybeans $12.00). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Seed cotton, sorghum, wheat, oats have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.

Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.

2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, oats: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Seed cotton, sorghum wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.

Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (seed cotton 2,236.5 lb; corn 89.6 bu; sorghum 69.0 bu; wheat 29.6 bu; oats 37.0 bu; soybeans 22.1 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.

How we call it. Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error (2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.

Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
CropPracticeYearPLCARC-COAnswer
Seed cottonNon-irrigated2026nonenoneAsk FSA
Seed cottonNon-irrigated2027nonenoneWait for USDA
Seed cottonIrrigated2026$33.25$2.59Leans PLC
Seed cottonIrrigated2027nonenoneWait for USDA
CornNon-irrigated2026$0.64$3.90Leans ARC-CO
CornNon-irrigated2027$6.96$21.28Leans ARC-CO
CornIrrigated2026$0.64$4.46Leans ARC-CO
CornIrrigated2027$6.96$15.51Leans ARC-CO
SorghumNon-irrigated2026$14.69$20.90Leans ARC-CO
SorghumNon-irrigated2027nonenoneWait for USDA
SorghumIrrigated2026$14.69$24.92Leans ARC-CO
SorghumIrrigated2027nonenoneWait for USDA
WheatAll practices2026$5.45$6.18Either one
WheatAll practices2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet
OatsAll practices2026$0$10.34Leans ARC-CO
OatsAll practices2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet
SoybeansNon-irrigated2026nonenoneAsk FSA
SoybeansNon-irrigated2027nonenoneAsk FSA
SoybeansIrrigated2026$0$0Neither pays
SoybeansIrrigated2027$1.78$26.45ARC-CO

Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.

Seed cotton 2026 in Robertson County: Leans PLC

FSA’s seed cotton price is its own weighted average of the upland cotton lint price and the cottonseed price. We use FSA’s seed cotton series as published and never build it from the lint price. All seed cotton counties.

Non-irrigated: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (2,236.5 lb) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (1,745.30 lb), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $30.66 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $33.25 PLC vs $2.59 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $228.12 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $143.78 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $33.25 and ARC-CO $2.59 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 2,236.5 lb (program year 2025) and the official 3,269.76 lb benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled seed cotton base in this county: 2,236.5 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)3,269.76 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4311
Benchmark revenue$1,409.59/ac
Guarantee (90%)$1,268.63/ac
Max payment (12%)$169.15/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$143.78

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 3474.67 · 2021: 3533.93 · 2022: 2437.87 (dropped) · 2023: 2800.68 · 2024: 3627.36 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 3,269.76 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 3,020.6 lb, reaching its cap below 2,617.8 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 3,269.76 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
1,961.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
70%
2,288.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
80%
2,615.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
90%
2,942.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
100%
3,269.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
20223,101.18$0.36702366.93none
20233,227.16$0.36702747.47none
20243,239.81$0.39583591.89none
20253,126.53$0.43113947.21none

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)1,745.30 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4311
Benchmark revenue$752.40/ac
Guarantee (90%)$677.16/ac
Max payment (12%)$90.29/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$76.74

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1707.14 · 2021: 2290.87 · 2022: 1237.92 · 2023: 1228.44 (dropped) · 2024: 2635.63 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,745.30 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 1,612.3 lb, reaching its cap below 1,397.3 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,745.30 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
1,047.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
70%
1,221.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
80%
1,396.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
90%
1,570.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
100%
1,745.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
20221,506.17$0.3670362.81$55.28
20231,775.74$0.3670815.66$65.17
20241,762.61$0.39582616.67none
20251,447.94$0.43112598.34none

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Corn 2026 in Robertson County: Leans ARC-CO

Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.26 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.64 PLC vs $3.90 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $152.32 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $69.52 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.64 and ARC-CO $3.90 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $14.32 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $6.96 PLC vs $21.28 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 89.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 135.50 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.82 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.64 PLC vs $4.46 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $152.32 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $79.64 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.64 and ARC-CO $4.46 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $8.55 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $6.96 PLC vs $15.51 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 89.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 155.22 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 89.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)155.22 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$780.76/ac
Guarantee (90%)$702.68/ac
Max payment (12%)$93.69/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$79.64

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 161.32 · 2021: 170.93 (dropped) · 2022: 139.91 (dropped) · 2023: 152.14 · 2024: 152.21 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 155.22 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 159.0 bu, reaching its cap below 137.8 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 155.22 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
93.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70%
108.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80%
124.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90%
139.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100%
155.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
2021135.76$3.70165.28none
2022139.88$3.70135.39none
2023151.11$3.98148.75none
2024142.15$4.85149.95none
2025149.49$5.03161.76$3.82

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)135.50 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$681.57/ac
Guarantee (90%)$613.41/ac
Max payment (12%)$81.79/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$69.52

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 125.45 · 2021: 143.11 · 2022: 87.24 (dropped) · 2023: 137.93 · 2024: 144.5 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 135.50 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 138.8 bu, reaching its cap below 120.3 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 135.50 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
81.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70%
94.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80%
108.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90%
122.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100%
135.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202182.72$3.70138.81none
2022100.10$3.7083.80none
2023108.91$3.98135.35none
202496.79$4.85142.78none
2025115.65$5.03139.53none

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Sorghum 2026 in Robertson County: Leans ARC-CO

All sorghum counties.

Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $6.21 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $14.69 PLC vs $20.90 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $131.96 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $40.00 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $14.69 and ARC-CO $20.90 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 69.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 74.00 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $10.23 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $14.69 PLC vs $24.92 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $131.96 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $47.70 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $14.69 and ARC-CO $24.92 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 69.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 88.24 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 69.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)88.24 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$467.67/ac
Guarantee (90%)$420.90/ac
Max payment (12%)$56.12/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$47.70

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 100.86 · 2021: 72.95 (dropped) · 2022: 84.24 · 2023: 125.93 (dropped) · 2024: 79.62 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 88.24 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 90.1 bu, reaching its cap below 78.1 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 88.24 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
52.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.60 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.61 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70%
61.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80%
70.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90%
79.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100%
88.2 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202180.13$3.9571.40none
202288.69$3.9583.00none
202393.60$4.31125.00none
202485.34$5.0179.00$42.76
202585.55$5.3068.00$54.41

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)74.00 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$392.20/ac
Guarantee (90%)$352.98/ac
Max payment (12%)$47.06/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$40.00

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 83.86 · 2021: 64.27 · 2022: 61.24 (dropped) · 2023: 85.66 (dropped) · 2024: 73.88 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 74.00 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 75.6 bu, reaching its cap below 65.5 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 74.00 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
44.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.60 or lower. Both pay the same at $3.61. ARC-CO pays more from $3.62 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70%
51.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80%
59.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90%
66.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100%
74.0 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202176.48$3.9562.72none
202276.38$3.9525.00$30.17
202376.93$4.3184.73none
202469.11$5.0173.26none
202569.32$5.3068.00$44.09

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Wheat 2026 in Robertson County: Close, either one

All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $0.72 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $5.45 PLC vs $6.18 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $66.17 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $28.80 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $5.45 and ARC-CO $6.18 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 29.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 40.45 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 29.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)40.45 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$282.34/ac
Guarantee (90%)$254.11/ac
Max payment (12%)$33.88/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$28.80

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 38 · 2021: 39 · 2022: 44.34 · 2023: 50.21 (dropped) · 2024: 34.05 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 40.45 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 40.0 bu, reaching its cap below 34.7 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 40.45 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
24.3 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70%
28.3 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80%
32.4 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.00. PLC pays more from $6.01 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90%
36.4 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.66. Both pay the same at $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100%
40.5 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202141.49$5.5039.00none
202243.16$5.5044.34none
202341.33$5.5050.21none
202443.45$6.2134.05$26.98
202543.45$6.9841.00$36.39

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Oats 2026 in Robertson County: Leans ARC-CO

All oats counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $10.34 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $10.34 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $26.73 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $20.09 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $10.34 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 37.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 50.00 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 37.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)50.00 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$197.00/ac
Guarantee (90%)$177.30/ac
Max payment (12%)$23.64/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$20.09

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 50 · 2021: 47 · 2022: 44 (dropped) · 2023: 69 (dropped) · 2024: 53 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 50.00 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 58.1 bu, reaching its cap below 50.4 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 50.00 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
30.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70%
35.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80%
40.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90%
45.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100%
50.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202246.67$2.6744.00none
202346.33$2.7569.00none
202447.00$3.3853.00none
202551.00$3.8459.00none

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Soybeans 2026 in Robertson County: Neither expected to pay

Non-irrigated: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (22.1 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (20.67 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $73.07 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $52.55 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Pick ARC-CO (expected $1.78 PLC vs $26.45 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 22.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 42.33 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 22.1 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)42.33 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$515.16/ac
Guarantee (90%)$463.64/ac
Max payment (12%)$61.82/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$52.55

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 51.06 (dropped) · 2021: 48 · 2022: 33 (dropped) · 2023: 41 · 2024: 38 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 42.33 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 43.3 bu, reaching its cap below 37.5 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 42.33 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
25.4 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70%
29.6 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80%
33.9 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90%
38.1 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100%
42.3 bu
PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.25 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202139.49$8.9548.00none
202242.02$9.1233.00none
202348.02$9.5741.00none
202540.67$12.1730.00$59.39

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)20.67 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$251.55/ac
Guarantee (90%)$226.40/ac
Max payment (12%)$30.19/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$25.66

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 35.9 (dropped) · 2021: 24 · 2022: 15.2 (dropped) · 2023: 19 · 2024: 19 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 20.67 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 21.1 bu, reaching its cap below 18.3 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 20.67 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
12.4 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70%
14.5 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80%
16.5 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90%
18.6 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100%
20.7 bu
PLC pays more at $9.25 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.26 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202119.24$8.9524.00none
202221.07$9.126.00$19.22
202323.20$9.5719.00none
202523.67$12.1727.00none

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.

Run every number for your farm

Run your farm’s numbers

Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.

From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.

On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.

Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.

County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.

USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.

Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.

Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.

Questions about Robertson County

Should I pick ARC or PLC for seed cotton in Robertson County for 2026?

For a typical farm (irrigated): Leans PLC: expected about $30.66 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $33.25 PLC vs $2.59 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $228.12 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $143.78 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $33.25 and ARC-CO $2.59 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for seed cotton in Robertson County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for seed cotton in Robertson County, Texas is 3,269.76 lb (irrigated); 1,745.30 lb (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.4311 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Robertson County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.26 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.64 PLC vs $3.90 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $152.32 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $69.52 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.64 and ARC-CO $3.90 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Robertson County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Robertson County, Texas is 155.22 bu (irrigated); 135.50 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for sorghum in Robertson County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $6.21 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $14.69 PLC vs $20.90 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $131.96 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $40.00 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $14.69 and ARC-CO $20.90 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Robertson County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Robertson County, Texas is 88.24 bu (irrigated); 74.00 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Robertson County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $0.72 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $5.45 PLC vs $6.18 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $66.17 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $28.80 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $5.45 and ARC-CO $6.18 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Robertson County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Robertson County, Texas is 40.45 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for oats in Robertson County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $10.34 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $10.34 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $26.73 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $20.09 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $10.34 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Robertson County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Robertson County, Texas is 50.00 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Robertson County for 2026?

For a typical farm (irrigated): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $73.07 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $52.55 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Robertson County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Robertson County, Texas is 42.33 bu (irrigated); 20.67 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

An estimate, not a USDA determination. Source: FSA ARC/PLC program data. Find your county office.

Related: All Texas counties · ARC or PLC calculator and method · Robertson County in the Farmland Atlas

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