ARC vs PLC › Texas › Red River County
ARC-CO and PLC · FSA official
Red River County, TX: ARC or PLC for 2026 and 2027
FSA’s official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields for Red River County, Texas, with the math behind them and what they mean for ARC-CO and PLC. FSA has not posted 2027 benchmarks; the 2027 benchmark shifts the window one year.
Quick answer for 2026, for a typical farm in this county. Run your own numbers; your PLC yield and base can change it.
- Corn, non-irrigated: leans ARC-CO (est. $0.58 PLC vs $6.20 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC more in 2 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
- Soybeans, irrigated: ARC-CO expected to pay more (est. $0 PLC vs $11.72 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
Typical farm = FSA’s county average PLC yield and FSA’s official benchmark. Prices: USDA’s October WASDE projection, spread by how far the season-average price ended from October futures in each past year; county yields from the same past years. How this is figured.
Corn 2026 in Red River County: leans ARC-CO
Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $5.62 more per base acre, but the gap is within the normal swing; either is a defensible choice (expected $0.58 PLC vs $6.20 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 2 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $119.34 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $42.26 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 10 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.58 and ARC-CO $6.20 per base acre.
2027: Too close to call (expected $6.08 PLC vs $4.05 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1; the gap is under $15.34). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 70.2 bu (program year 2025) and the official 82.37 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $13.95 more per base acre, but the gap is within the normal swing; either is a defensible choice (expected $0.58 PLC vs $14.53 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $119.34 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $61.70 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 10 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.58 and ARC-CO $14.53 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $12.64 more per base acre, but the gap is within the normal swing; either is a defensible choice (expected $6.08 PLC vs $18.72 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 70.2 bu (program year 2025) and the official 120.25 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 70.2 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 121.42 · 2021: 120.25 · 2022: 119.08 · 2023: 131.51 · 2024: 116.74 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 120.25 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 123.2 bu, reaching its cap below 106.7 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 120.25 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 72.2 bu | PLC: $3.41 or lower ARC-CO: $3.42 to $4.52 |
| 70% 84.2 bu | PLC: $3.55 or lower ARC-CO: $3.56 to $4.52 |
| 80% 96.2 bu | PLC: $3.66 or lower ARC-CO: $3.67 to $4.52 |
| 90% 108.2 bu | PLC: $3.74 or lower ARC-CO: $3.75 to $4.52 |
| 100% 120.3 bu | PLC: $3.81 or lower ARC-CO: $3.82 to $4.52 |
FSA history, irrigated
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 131.82 | $3.70 | 82.00 | none |
| 2022 | 132.55 | $3.70 | 108.00 | none |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 68.93 · 2021: 75.05 · 2022: 87.04 · 2023: 117.03 · 2024: 85.02 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 82.37 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 84.4 bu, reaching its cap below 73.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 82.37 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 49.4 bu | PLC: $3.41 or lower ARC-CO: $3.42 to $4.52 |
| 70% 57.7 bu | PLC: $3.55 or lower ARC-CO: $3.56 to $4.52 |
| 80% 65.9 bu | PLC: $3.66 or lower ARC-CO: $3.67 to $4.52 |
| 90% 74.1 bu | PLC: $3.74 or lower ARC-CO: $3.75 to $4.52 |
| 100% 82.4 bu | PLC: $3.81 or lower ARC-CO: $3.82 to $4.52 |
FSA history, non-irrigated
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 86.84 | $3.70 | 70.00 | none |
| 2022 | 82.84 | $3.70 | 83.00 | none |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Soybeans 2026 in Red River County: ARC-CO expected to pay more
Non-irrigated: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (18.5 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (14.81 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.
Irrigated, 2026: Pick ARC-CO (expected $0 PLC vs $11.72 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $61.17 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $41.51 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 10 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $11.72 per base acre.
2027: Pick ARC-CO (expected $1.53 PLC vs $13.40 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 18.5 bu (program year 2025) and the official 33.44 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 18.5 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 56.02 · 2021: 34.98 · 2022: 25.52 · 2023: 36.17 · 2024: 29.16 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 33.44 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 34.2 bu, reaching its cap below 29.6 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 33.44 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 20.1 bu | PLC: $8.27 or lower ARC-CO: $8.28 to $10.95 |
| 70% 23.4 bu | PLC: $8.62 or lower ARC-CO: $8.63 to $10.95 |
| 80% 26.8 bu | PLC: $8.88 or lower ARC-CO: $8.89 to $10.95 |
| 90% 30.1 bu | PLC: $9.08 or lower ARC-CO: $9.09 to $10.95 |
| 100% 33.4 bu | PLC: $9.24 or lower ARC-CO: $9.25 to $10.95 |
FSA history, irrigated
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 39.31 | $8.95 | 34.08 | none |
| 2022 | 43.05 | $9.12 | 22.00 | $25.25 |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 32.33 · 2021: 16.05 · 2022: 13.48 · 2023: 14.91 · 2024: 12.34 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 14.81 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 15.1 bu, reaching its cap below 13.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 14.81 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 8.9 bu | PLC: $8.27 or lower ARC-CO: $8.28 to $10.95 |
| 70% 10.4 bu | PLC: $8.62 or lower ARC-CO: $8.63 to $10.95 |
| 80% 11.8 bu | PLC: $8.88 or lower ARC-CO: $8.89 to $10.95 |
| 90% 13.3 bu | PLC: $9.08 or lower ARC-CO: $9.09 to $10.95 |
| 100% 14.8 bu | PLC: $9.24 or lower ARC-CO: $9.26 to $10.95 |
FSA history, non-irrigated
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18.47 | $8.95 | 9.96 | $9.70 |
| 2022 | 23.70 | $9.12 | 6.00 | $21.61 |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Wheat 2026 in Red River County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even
All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (38.1 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (36.77 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 38.1 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 33.11 · 2021: 45.68 · 2022: 55.42 · 2023: 29.28 · 2024: 31.52 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 36.77 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 36.4 bu, reaching its cap below 31.5 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 36.77 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 22.1 bu | PLC: $4.95 or lower ARC-CO: $4.96 to $6.17 |
| 70% 25.7 bu | PLC: $5.15 or lower ARC-CO: $5.16 to $6.12 |
| 80% 29.4 bu | PLC: $5.30 or lower ARC-CO: $5.31 to $6.00 |
| 90% 33.1 bu | PLC: $5.41 or lower ARC-CO: $5.42 to $5.66 |
| 100% 36.8 bu | PLC: $6.34 or lower ARC-CO: never |
FSA history, all practices
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 31.89 | $5.50 | 44.88 | none |
| 2022 | 33.45 | $5.50 | 54.78 | none |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
An estimate, not a USDA determination. Source: FSA ARC/PLC program data. Find your county office.
Printed from https://agsist.com/arc-plc/texas/red-river-county