What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.
Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?
Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.
Your main crops
Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet
Sorghum
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $5 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Ask FSANo answer yet
A PLC yield that high is above the county benchmark yield, so this page cannot figure it. Ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Corn · non-irrigated
Either oneClose
ARC-CO comes out about $3 more per base acre, but it swings more than that from year to year.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: leans ARC-CO
Either oneClose
ARC-CO comes out about $3 more per base acre, but it swings more than that from year to year.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: leans ARC-CO
Either oneClose
ARC-CO comes out about $3 more per base acre, but it swings more than that from year to year.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: leans ARC-CO
Wheat
Either oneClose
They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out about $1 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Ask FSANo answer yet
A PLC yield that high is above the county benchmark yield, so this page cannot figure it. Ask your FSA office.
2027: ask your FSA office
Seed cotton · non-irrigated
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $15 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans PLC. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $18 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans PLC. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $21 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans PLC. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Smaller crops here
Each has under 1,200 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).
Oats
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $12 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $12 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $12 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Soybeans
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
2027: ARC-CO
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
2027: ARC-CO
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
2027: ARC-CO
Deadlines
Dec 112026 signup ends Dec 11, 2026.
Nov 2 to Mar 152027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
Skip itDo nothing for 2026 and that farm gets no 2026 payment.
SignEvery owner and operator on the farm signs.
BringBring the farm’s FSA-156EZ. It lists the base acres and PLC yields.
2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Milam County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves.
Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: sorghum $4.50, corn $4.70, wheat $6.30, oats $3.35, soybeans $12.00; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: seed cotton $0.4114). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average
price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Sorghum, wheat, seed cotton, oats have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.
Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against close, either one at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.
2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, oats: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sorghum, seed cotton wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (sorghum 61.1 bu; corn 83.3 bu; wheat 35.3 bu; seed cotton 1,291.2 lb; oats 43.4 bu; soybeans 26.8 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the
county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it.Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error
(2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in
at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop
Practice
Year
PLC
ARC-CO
Answer
Sorghum
All practices
2026
$13.01
$17.61
Leans ARC-CO
Sorghum
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Corn
Non-irrigated
2026
$0.59
$3.28
Either one
Corn
Non-irrigated
2027
$6.47
$18.27
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
Irrigated
2026
$0.59
$4.69
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
Irrigated
2027
$6.47
$31.69
ARC-CO
Wheat
All practices
2026
$6.50
$5.40
Either one
Wheat
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Seed cotton
Non-irrigated
2026
$19.20
$1.27
Leans PLC
Seed cotton
Non-irrigated
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Seed cotton
Irrigated
2026
$19.20
$2.55
Leans PLC
Seed cotton
Irrigated
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Oats
All practices
2026
$0
$12.22
Leans ARC-CO
Oats
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Soybeans
All practices
2026
$0
$0
Neither pays
Soybeans
All practices
2027
$2.16
$19.74
ARC-CO
FSA lists a benchmark here but no enrolled base for sunflower seed.
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.61 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $13.01 PLC vs $17.61 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $116.85 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $33.71 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $13.01 and ARC-CO $17.61 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 61.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 62.36 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 61.1 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)62.36 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$330.51/ac
Guarantee (90%)$297.46/ac
Max payment (12%)$39.66/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$33.71
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 62 · 2021: 60.72 · 2022: 64.37 · 2023: 60.44 (dropped) · 2024: 70.7 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 62.36 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 63.7 bu, reaching its cap below 55.2 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 62.36 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 37.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.60 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.61 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70% 43.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80% 49.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90% 56.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100% 62.4 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
66.54
$3.95
59.27
none
2022
66.60
$3.95
63.21
none
2023
66.86
$4.31
59.57
none
2024
62.25
$5.01
70.12
none
2025
62.11
$5.30
66.97
$39.50
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Corn 2026 in Milam County: Close, either one
Non-irrigated, 2026: Close, either one: about $2.69 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $0.59 PLC vs $3.28 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $141.61 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $58.61 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.59 and ARC-CO $3.28 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $11.80 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $6.47 PLC vs $18.27 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 83.3 bu (program year 2025) and the official 114.23 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.10 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.59 PLC vs $4.69 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $141.61 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $83.73 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.59 and ARC-CO $4.69 per base acre.
2027: Pick ARC-CO (expected $6.47 PLC vs $31.69 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 83.3 bu (program year 2025) and the official 163.19 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 83.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)163.19 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$820.85/ac
Guarantee (90%)$738.76/ac
Max payment (12%)$98.50/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$83.73
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 164.13 · 2021: 179.72 (dropped) · 2022: 164.14 · 2023: 143.99 (dropped) · 2024: 161.3 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 163.19 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 167.1 bu, reaching its cap below 144.9 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 163.19 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 97.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 114.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 130.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 146.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 163.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
FSA history, irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
118.06
$3.70
175.07
none
2022
133.71
$3.70
160.42
none
2023
148.35
$3.98
141.20
none
2024
153.37
$4.85
159.44
none
2025
156.62
$5.03
193.47
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)114.23 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$574.58/ac
Guarantee (90%)$517.12/ac
Max payment (12%)$68.95/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$58.61
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 110.57 · 2021: 127.95 (dropped) · 2022: 79.7 (dropped) · 2023: 114.11 · 2024: 118.01 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 114.23 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 117.0 bu, reaching its cap below 101.4 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 114.23 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 68.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 80.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 91.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 102.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 114.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
FSA history, non-irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
85.51
$3.70
123.40
none
2022
94.77
$3.70
76.06
none
2023
111.35
$3.98
111.38
none
2024
97.15
$4.85
116.19
none
2025
109.99
$5.03
136.37
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Wheat 2026 in Milam County: Close, either one
All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.10 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $6.50 PLC vs $5.40 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 6 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $78.91 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $25.19 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $6.50 and ARC-CO $5.40 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 35.3 bu (program year 2025) and the official 35.38 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 35.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)35.38 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$246.95/ac
Guarantee (90%)$222.26/ac
Max payment (12%)$29.63/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$25.19
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 39.53 · 2021: 35.88 · 2022: 30.02 (dropped) · 2023: 41.25 (dropped) · 2024: 30.72 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 35.38 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 35.0 bu, reaching its cap below 30.3 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 35.38 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 21.2 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70% 24.8 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80% 28.3 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.00. Both pay the same at $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90% 31.8 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100% 35.4 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
36.11
$5.50
35.08
none
2022
39.17
$5.50
29.38
none
2023
41.08
$5.50
40.77
none
2024
41.24
$6.21
21.53
$25.61
2025
38.84
$6.98
30.04
$32.53
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Seed cotton 2026 in Milam County: Leans PLC
FSA’s seed cotton price is its own weighted average of the upland cotton lint price and the cottonseed price. We use FSA’s seed cotton series as published and never build it from the lint price. All seed cotton counties.
Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $17.92 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $19.20 PLC vs $1.27 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $131.70 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $70.64 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $19.20 and ARC-CO $1.27 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 1,291.2 lb (program year 2025) and the official 1,606.56 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $16.64 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $19.20 PLC vs $2.55 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $131.70 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $141.86 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $19.20 and ARC-CO $2.55 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 1,291.2 lb (program year 2025) and the official 3,226.22 lb benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled seed cotton base in this county: 1,291.2 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)3,226.22 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4311
Benchmark revenue$1,390.82/ac
Guarantee (90%)$1,251.74/ac
Max payment (12%)$166.90/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$141.86
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 3491.76 · 2021: 3445.63 · 2022: 2741.28 · 2023: 2717.4 (dropped) · 2024: 3798.48 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 3,226.22 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 2,980.3 lb, reaching its cap below 2,583.0 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 3,226.22 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 1,935.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
70% 2,258.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
80% 2,581.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
90% 2,903.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
100% 3,226.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
FSA history, irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
3,463.58
$0.3670
3326.23
none
2022
3,513.86
$0.3670
2027.81
$128.96
2023
3,537.79
$0.3670
2058.89
$129.84
2024
3,483.43
$0.3958
3750.72
none
2025
3,203.21
$0.4311
4515.43
none
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)1,606.56 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4311
Benchmark revenue$692.59/ac
Guarantee (90%)$623.33/ac
Max payment (12%)$83.11/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$70.64
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1380.26 · 2021: 2514.58 (dropped) · 2022: 1200.67 · 2023: 1181.78 (dropped) · 2024: 2238.72 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,606.56 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 1,484.1 lb, reaching its cap below 1,286.2 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,606.56 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 963.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
70% 1,124.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
80% 1,285.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
90% 1,445.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
100% 1,606.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
FSA history, non-irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
1,360.18
$0.3670
2420.14
none
2022
1,289.45
$0.3670
684.43
$47.32
2023
1,496.57
$0.3670
504.53
$54.92
2024
1,301.86
$0.3958
2200.94
none
2025
1,259.76
$0.4311
2995.90
none
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $12.22 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $12.22 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $31.36 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $23.74 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $12.22 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 43.4 bu (program year 2025) and the official 59.08 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 43.4 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)59.08 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$232.78/ac
Guarantee (90%)$209.50/ac
Max payment (12%)$27.93/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$23.74
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 56.27 · 2021: 32.27 (dropped) · 2022: 54 · 2023: 66.97 · 2024: 69 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 59.08 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 68.7 bu, reaching its cap below 59.5 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 59.08 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 35.4 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70% 41.4 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80% 47.3 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90% 53.2 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100% 59.1 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
51.58
$2.55
32.27
none
2022
51.58
$2.67
54.00
none
2023
50.71
$2.75
66.97
none
2024
52.58
$3.38
69.00
none
2025
55.09
$3.84
54.33
$14.91
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Soybeans 2026 in Milam County: Neither expected to pay
All practices, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $88.61 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $39.31 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Pick ARC-CO (expected $2.16 PLC vs $19.74 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 26.8 bu (program year 2025) and the official 31.67 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 26.8 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)31.67 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$385.42/ac
Guarantee (90%)$346.88/ac
Max payment (12%)$46.25/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$39.31
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 44 (dropped) · 2021: 42 · 2022: 30 · 2023: 23 (dropped) · 2024: 23 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 31.67 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 32.4 bu, reaching its cap below 28.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 31.67 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 19.0 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70% 22.2 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80% 25.3 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90% 28.5 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100% 31.7 bu
PLC pays more at $9.25 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.26 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
23.56
$8.95
42.00
none
2022
26.33
$9.12
30.00
none
2023
33.67
$9.57
23.00
none
2024
35.00
$11.12
23.00
$38.92
2025
35.00
$12.17
28.00
$51.11
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Sunflower seed 2026 in Milam County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1801 (dropped) · 2021: 1150 · 2022: 650 (dropped) · 2023: 1285 · 2024: 1750 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,395.00 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 1,327.9 lb, reaching its cap below 1,150.9 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,395.00 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 837.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1872 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1873 to $0.2089. PLC pays more from $0.2090 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70% 976.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1944 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1945 to $0.1994. PLC pays more from $0.1995 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80% 1,116.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90% 1,255.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100% 1,395.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2022
1,329.33
$0.2015
650.00
$26.79
2023
1,346.00
$0.2053
1285.00
none
2024
1,079.33
$0.2308
1750.00
none
2025
1,241.00
$0.2510
1125.00
$8.09
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
Questions about Milam County
Should I pick ARC or PLC for sorghum in Milam County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.61 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $13.01 PLC vs $17.61 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $116.85 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $33.71 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $13.01 and ARC-CO $17.61 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Milam County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Milam County, Texas is 62.36 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Milam County for 2026?
For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Close, either one: about $2.69 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $0.59 PLC vs $3.28 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $141.61 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $58.61 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.59 and ARC-CO $3.28 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Milam County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Milam County, Texas is 163.19 bu (irrigated); 114.23 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Milam County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $1.10 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $6.50 PLC vs $5.40 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 6 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $78.91 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $25.19 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $6.50 and ARC-CO $5.40 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Milam County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Milam County, Texas is 35.38 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for seed cotton in Milam County for 2026?
For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Leans PLC: expected about $17.92 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $19.20 PLC vs $1.27 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $131.70 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $70.64 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $19.20 and ARC-CO $1.27 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for seed cotton in Milam County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for seed cotton in Milam County, Texas is 3,226.22 lb (irrigated); 1,606.56 lb (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.4311 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for oats in Milam County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $12.22 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $12.22 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $31.36 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $23.74 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $12.22 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Milam County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Milam County, Texas is 59.08 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Milam County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $88.61 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $39.31 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Milam County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Milam County, Texas is 31.67 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Milam County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Milam County, Texas is 1,395.00 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2512 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.