Fannin County, Texas
What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.
Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.
Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet
They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
They come out about $1 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
A PLC yield that high is above the county benchmark yield, so this page cannot figure it. Ask your FSA office.
2027: ask your FSA office
ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
ARC-CO comes out about $5 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
A PLC yield that high is above the county benchmark yield, so this page cannot figure it. Ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: leans ARC-CO
They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: close, either one
A PLC yield that high is above the county benchmark yield, so this page cannot figure it. Ask your FSA office.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: ask your FSA office
Each has under 2,000 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).
ARC-CO comes out about $15 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. Peanuts borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if peanuts average under 31.5 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-CO comes out about $5 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. Peanuts borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if peanuts average under 31.5 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
PLC comes out about $6 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. Peanuts borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if peanuts average under 31.5 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: neither pays. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: ARC-CO
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: neither pays. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: ARC-CO
A PLC yield that high is above the county benchmark yield, so this page cannot figure it. Ask your FSA office.
Irrigated ground: neither pays. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: ask your FSA office
ARC-CO comes out about $12 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: ask your FSA office
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: ask your FSA office
PLC comes out about $8 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
PLC comes out about $10 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
PLC comes out about $12 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
ARC-CO comes out about $6 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-CO comes out about $6 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-CO comes out about $6 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Counter sheet for the FSA office Share this county
2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Fannin County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves. Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: wheat $6.30, sorghum $4.50, corn $4.70, soybeans $12.00, oats $3.35, barley $5.70; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: peanuts $0.2400, seed cotton $0.4114). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, sorghum, peanuts, oats, seed cotton, barley have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.
Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against close, either one at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.
2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, peanuts, oats, barley: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sorghum, seed cotton wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (wheat 42.6 bu; sorghum 56.9 bu; corn 73.5 bu; peanuts 1,114.5 lb; soybeans 17.0 bu; oats 56.3 bu; seed cotton 738.9 lb; barley 34.6 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it. Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error (2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
| Crop | Practice | Year | PLC | ARC-CO | Answer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | All practices | 2026 | $7.85 | $6.66 | Either one |
| Wheat | All practices | 2027 | none | none | No 2027 price yet |
| Sorghum | All practices | 2026 | $12.11 | $17.06 | Leans ARC-CO |
| Sorghum | All practices | 2027 | none | none | Wait for USDA |
| Corn | Non-irrigated | 2026 | $0.52 | $2.25 | Either one |
| Corn | Non-irrigated | 2027 | $5.71 | $13.07 | Either one |
| Corn | Irrigated | 2026 | $0.52 | $3.98 | Leans ARC-CO |
| Corn | Irrigated | 2027 | $5.71 | $31.09 | ARC-CO |
| Peanuts | All practices | 2026 | $71.05 | $75.69 | Leans ARC-CO |
| Peanuts | All practices | 2027 | none | none | No 2027 price yet |
| Soybeans | Non-irrigated | 2026 | $0 | $0 | Neither pays |
| Soybeans | Non-irrigated | 2027 | $1.37 | $10.75 | ARC-CO |
| Soybeans | Irrigated | 2026 | $0 | $0 | Neither pays |
| Soybeans | Irrigated | 2027 | $1.37 | $8.73 | Leans ARC-CO |
| Oats | All practices | 2026 | none | none | Ask FSA |
| Oats | All practices | 2027 | none | none | Ask FSA |
| Seed cotton | All practices | 2026 | $10.98 | $1.02 | Leans PLC |
| Seed cotton | All practices | 2027 | none | none | Wait for USDA |
| Barley | All practices | 2026 | $2.41 | $8.50 | Leans ARC-CO |
| Barley | All practices | 2027 | none | none | No 2027 price yet |
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.19 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $7.85 PLC vs $6.66 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 6 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $95.23 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $31.04 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $7.85 and ARC-CO $6.66 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 42.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 43.60 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 42.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 43.24 · 2021: 48.65 · 2022: 53.83 (dropped) · 2023: 38.91 · 2024: 36.42 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 43.60 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 43.1 bu, reaching its cap below 37.4 bu.
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 26.2 bu | PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. PLC pays more from $6.18 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher. |
| 70% 30.5 bu | PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher. |
| 80% 34.9 bu | PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.00. PLC pays more from $6.01 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher. |
| 90% 39.2 bu | PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher. |
| 100% 43.6 bu | PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher. |
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 40.89 | $5.50 | 47.60 | none |
| 2022 | 44.39 | $5.50 | 52.99 | none |
| 2023 | 46.44 | $5.50 | 38.28 | none |
| 2024 | 48.90 | $6.21 | 24.59 | $30.37 |
| 2025 | 45.53 | $6.98 | 31.66 | $38.14 |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.95 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $12.11 PLC vs $17.06 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $108.82 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $32.66 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $12.11 and ARC-CO $17.06 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 56.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 60.41 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 56.9 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 57.27 · 2021: 67.71 · 2022: 56.24 · 2023: 80.61 (dropped) · 2024: 49.98 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 60.41 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 61.7 bu, reaching its cap below 53.5 bu.
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 36.2 bu | PLC pays more at $3.60 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.61 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher. |
| 70% 42.3 bu | PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher. |
| 80% 48.3 bu | PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher. |
| 90% 54.4 bu | PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher. |
| 100% 60.4 bu | PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher. |
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 53.46 | $3.95 | 66.36 | none |
| 2022 | 55.70 | $3.95 | 55.16 | none |
| 2023 | 61.57 | $4.31 | 79.80 | none |
| 2024 | 59.93 | $5.01 | 49.44 | $30.03 |
| 2025 | 68.33 | $5.30 | 68.95 | $43.46 |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.73 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $0.52 PLC vs $2.25 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $124.95 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $40.20 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.52 and ARC-CO $2.25 per base acre.
2027: Close, either one: about $7.36 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $5.71 PLC vs $13.07 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 73.5 bu (program year 2025) and the official 78.36 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.46 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.52 PLC vs $3.98 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $124.95 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $71.01 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.52 and ARC-CO $3.98 per base acre.
2027: Pick ARC-CO (expected $5.71 PLC vs $31.09 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 73.5 bu (program year 2025) and the official 138.40 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 73.5 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 152.03 · 2021: 106.65 (dropped) · 2022: 149.7 · 2023: 156.12 (dropped) · 2024: 113.47 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 138.40 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 141.8 bu, reaching its cap below 122.9 bu.
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 83.0 bu | PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher. |
| 70% 96.9 bu | PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher. |
| 80% 110.7 bu | PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher. |
| 90% 124.6 bu | PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher. |
| 100% 138.4 bu | PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher. |
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 151.67 | $3.70 | 26.49 | $56.12 |
| 2022 | 156.63 | $3.70 | 146.30 | none |
| 2023 | 157.31 | $3.98 | 153.57 | none |
| 2024 | 150.12 | $4.85 | 111.77 | $72.81 |
| 2025 | 151.40 | $5.03 | 158.03 | $27.99 |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 86.13 · 2021: 69.65 (dropped) · 2022: 73.73 · 2023: 134.98 (dropped) · 2024: 75.22 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 78.36 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 80.3 bu, reaching its cap below 69.6 bu.
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 47.0 bu | PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher. |
| 70% 54.9 bu | PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher. |
| 80% 62.7 bu | PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher. |
| 90% 70.5 bu | PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher. |
| 100% 78.4 bu | PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher. |
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 91.55 | $3.70 | 60.21 | none |
| 2022 | 94.91 | $3.70 | 70.49 | none |
| 2023 | 90.29 | $3.98 | 132.55 | none |
| 2024 | 78.32 | $4.85 | 63.92 | $37.99 |
| 2025 | 89.16 | $5.03 | 99.75 | none |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.64 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $71.05 PLC vs $75.69 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.3150, up to $113.68 per base acre at the $0.1950 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $87.22 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 11 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2400, PLC is expected to pay $71.05 and ARC-CO $75.69 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 1,114.5 lb (program year 2025) and the official 2,714.67 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled peanuts base in this county: 1,114.5 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 2880 · 2021: 2622 · 2022: 1998 (dropped) · 2023: 2642 · 2024: 3294 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 2,714.67 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.3150/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 2,443.2 lb, reaching its cap below 2,117.4 lb.
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 1,628.8 lb | PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher. |
| 70% 1,900.3 lb | PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher. |
| 80% 2,171.7 lb | PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher. |
| 90% 2,443.2 lb | PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher. |
| 100% 2,714.7 lb | PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher. |
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1,932.40 | $0.2675 | 2622.00 | none |
| 2022 | 1,932.40 | $0.2675 | 1998.00 | none |
| 2023 | 1,973.07 | $0.2675 | 2642.00 | none |
| 2024 | 2,250.00 | $0.2675 | 3294.00 | none |
| 2025 | 2,464.67 | $0.3150 | 3191.00 | none |
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $56.21 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $23.76 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Pick ARC-CO (expected $1.37 PLC vs $10.75 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 17.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 19.14 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $56.21 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $44.55 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $7.36 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $1.37 PLC vs $8.73 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 17.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 35.89 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 17.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 55.54 (dropped) · 2021: 34.16 · 2022: 22 (dropped) · 2023: 41.3 · 2024: 32.2 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 35.89 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 36.7 bu, reaching its cap below 31.8 bu.
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 21.5 bu | PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher. |
| 70% 25.1 bu | PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher. |
| 80% 28.7 bu | PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher. |
| 90% 32.3 bu | PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher. |
| 100% 35.9 bu | PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. Both pay the same at $9.25. ARC-CO pays more from $9.26 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher. |
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 38.98 | $8.95 | 33.66 | none |
| 2022 | 40.19 | $9.12 | 8.03 | $36.65 |
| 2023 | 38.52 | $9.57 | 41.00 | none |
| 2024 | 35.69 | $11.12 | 32.00 | $21.31 |
| 2025 | 37.29 | $12.17 | 45.00 | none |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 31.85 (dropped) · 2021: 20.98 · 2022: 14.76 (dropped) · 2023: 18.27 · 2024: 18.18 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 19.14 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 19.6 bu, reaching its cap below 17.0 bu.
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 11.5 bu | PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher. |
| 70% 13.4 bu | PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher. |
| 80% 15.3 bu | PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher. |
| 90% 17.2 bu | PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher. |
| 100% 19.1 bu | PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.25 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher. |
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18.90 | $8.95 | 20.53 | none |
| 2022 | 23.66 | $9.12 | 1.63 | $21.58 |
| 2023 | 24.28 | $9.57 | 18.00 | none |
| 2024 | 20.23 | $11.12 | 18.00 | $13.47 |
| 2025 | 19.46 | $12.17 | 19.00 | $13.65 |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (56.3 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (56.00 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 56.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 60 · 2021: 58 · 2022: 80 (dropped) · 2023: 50 (dropped) · 2024: 50 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 56.00 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 65.1 bu, reaching its cap below 56.4 bu.
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 33.6 bu | PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher. |
| 70% 39.2 bu | PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher. |
| 80% 44.8 bu | PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher. |
| 90% 50.4 bu | PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher. |
| 100% 56.0 bu | PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher. |
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 55.16 | $2.55 | 58.00 | none |
| 2022 | 54.49 | $2.67 | 80.00 | none |
| 2023 | 58.83 | $2.75 | 50.00 | none |
| 2024 | 60.16 | $3.38 | 50.00 | $7.37 |
| 2025 | 58.83 | $3.84 | 50.00 | $27.11 |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
FSA’s seed cotton price is its own weighted average of the upland cotton lint price and the cottonseed price. We use FSA’s seed cotton series as published and never build it from the lint price. All seed cotton counties.
All practices, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $9.96 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $10.98 PLC vs $1.02 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $75.37 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $56.65 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $10.98 and ARC-CO $1.02 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 738.9 lb (program year 2025) and the official 1,288.37 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled seed cotton base in this county: 738.9 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1532.33 · 2021: 1849.99 (dropped) · 2022: 1109.76 · 2023: 1222.99 · 2024: 983.04 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,288.37 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 1,190.2 lb, reaching its cap below 1,031.5 lb.
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 773.0 lb | PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher. |
| 70% 901.9 lb | PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher. |
| 80% 1,030.7 lb | PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher. |
| 90% 1,159.5 lb | PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher. |
| 100% 1,288.4 lb | PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher. |
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 894.19 | $0.3670 | 1849.99 | none |
| 2022 | 1,125.91 | $0.3670 | 385.70 | $41.32 |
| 2023 | 1,444.34 | $0.3670 | 1222.99 | none |
| 2024 | 1,197.60 | $0.3958 | 577.01 | $47.40 |
| 2025 | 1,288.37 | $0.4311 | 918.00 | $66.65 |
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $6.09 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $2.41 PLC vs $8.50 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $83.23 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $29.95 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $2.41 and ARC-CO $8.50 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 34.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 45.67 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 34.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 40 · 2021: 31.2 (dropped) · 2022: 80 (dropped) · 2023: 58 · 2024: 39 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 45.67 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 47.4 bu, reaching its cap below 41.0 bu.
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 27.4 bu | PLC pays more at $4.29 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.30 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher. |
| 70% 32.0 bu | PLC pays more at $4.47 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.48 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher. |
| 80% 36.5 bu | PLC pays more at $4.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.62 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher. |
| 90% 41.1 bu | PLC pays more at $4.72 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.73 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher. |
| 100% 45.7 bu | PLC pays more at $4.80 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.81 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher. |
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 41.67 | $4.95 | 20.00 | $20.63 |
| 2022 | 43.33 | $4.95 | 80.00 | none |
| 2023 | 43.33 | $4.95 | 58.00 | none |
| 2024 | 52.67 | $5.07 | 39.00 | none |
| 2025 | 51.00 | $6.10 | 3.00 | $37.33 |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
An estimate, not a USDA determination. Source: FSA ARC/PLC program data. Find your county office.
Printed from https://agsist.com/arc-plc/texas/fannin-county