ARC or PLC: the short answer for Crockett County, Texas

2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Crockett County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves. Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: seed cotton $0.4114). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Seed cotton have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.

2027. Seed cotton wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.

Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (seed cotton 773.0 lb) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.

How we call it. Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error (2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.

Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Data updated Oct 9, 2026 Full method and back-test.

Seed cotton 2026 in Crockett County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

FSA’s seed cotton price is its own weighted average of the upland cotton lint price and the cottonseed price. We use FSA’s seed cotton series as published and never build it from the lint price. All seed cotton counties.

All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (773.0 lb) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (599.35 lb), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled seed cotton base in this county: 773.0 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 440.02 (dropped) · 2021: 993 (dropped) · 2022: 440.02 · 2023: 918 · 2024: 440.02 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 599.35 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 553.7 lb, reaching its cap below 479.8 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 599.35 lb county yield, 2026 prices

FSA history, all practices

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Nothing from FSA here for corn or soybeans or wheat. Ask the county FSA office for “the 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yield for my county, crop and practice (irrigated or non-irrigated)”, or look it up in FSA’s program data (file: ARC-CO benchmark yields and revenues, program year 2026). Then type it into the calculator.

Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.