What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.
Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?
Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.
Your main crops
Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet
Wheat · irrigated
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $2 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Wheat borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out about $1 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Sorghum
Ask FSANo answer yet
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Ask FSANo answer yet
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Ask FSANo answer yet
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Smaller crops here
Each has under 1,100 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).
Corn
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: leans ARC-CO
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: leans ARC-CO
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: close, either one
Barley
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Oats
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $11 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $11 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $11 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Soybeans
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
2027: leans ARC-CO
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
2027: leans ARC-CO
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
2027: leans ARC-CO
Seed cotton · irrigated
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.
Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
Non-irrigated ground: leans PLC.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $8 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.
Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $10 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.
Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Deadlines
Dec 112026 signup ends Dec 11, 2026.
Nov 2 to Mar 152027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
Skip itDo nothing for 2026 and that farm gets no 2026 payment.
SignEvery owner and operator on the farm signs.
BringBring the farm’s FSA-156EZ. It lists the base acres and PLC yields.
2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Armstrong County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves.
Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: wheat $6.30, sorghum $4.50, corn $4.70, barley $5.70, oats $3.35, soybeans $12.00; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: seed cotton $0.4114). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average
price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, sorghum, barley, oats, seed cotton have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.
Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.
2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, barley, oats: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sorghum, seed cotton wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (wheat 24.6 bu; sorghum 48.8 bu; corn 124.8 bu; barley 30.9 bu; oats 31.8 bu; soybeans 30.0 bu; seed cotton 686.0 lb) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the
county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it.Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error
(2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in
at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop
Practice
Year
PLC
ARC-CO
Answer
Wheat
Non-irrigated
2026
none
none
Ask FSA
Wheat
Non-irrigated
2027
none
none
Ask FSA
Wheat
Irrigated
2026
$4.53
$6.34
Either one
Wheat
Irrigated
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Sorghum
All practices
2026
none
none
Ask FSA
Sorghum
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Corn
All practices
2026
$0.89
$5.11
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
All practices
2027
$9.69
$16.34
Leans ARC-CO
Barley
All practices
2026
$2.15
$9.24
Leans ARC-CO
Barley
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Oats
All practices
2026
$0
$10.89
Leans ARC-CO
Oats
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Soybeans
All practices
2026
$0
$0
Neither pays
Soybeans
All practices
2027
$2.67
$11.58
Leans ARC-CO
Seed cotton
Non-irrigated
2026
none
none
Ask FSA
Seed cotton
Non-irrigated
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Seed cotton
Irrigated
2026
$10.20
$1.75
Leans PLC
Seed cotton
Irrigated
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
Wheat 2026 in Armstrong County: Close, either one
Non-irrigated: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (24.6 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (20.41 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.
Irrigated, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.81 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $4.53 PLC vs $6.34 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $54.99 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $29.55 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $4.53 and ARC-CO $6.34 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 24.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 41.51 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 24.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)41.51 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$289.74/ac
Guarantee (90%)$260.77/ac
Max payment (12%)$34.77/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$29.55
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 34.5 · 2021: 44.46 · 2022: 25.52 (dropped) · 2023: 45.57 · 2024: 56.9 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 41.51 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 41.1 bu, reaching its cap below 35.6 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 41.51 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 24.9 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70% 29.1 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80% 33.2 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90% 37.4 bu
PLC pays more at $5.42 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.43 to $5.66. PLC pays more from $5.67 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100% 41.5 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
FSA history, irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
41.66
$5.50
43.56
none
2022
38.99
$5.50
21.40
none
2023
41.71
$5.50
45.03
none
2024
34.89
$6.21
56.54
none
2025
41.44
$6.98
61.42
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)20.41 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$142.46/ac
Guarantee (90%)$128.22/ac
Max payment (12%)$17.10/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$14.53
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 25.44 · 2021: 21.88 · 2022: 13.48 (dropped) · 2023: 13.92 · 2024: 27.43 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 20.41 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 20.2 bu, reaching its cap below 17.5 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 20.41 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 12.2 bu
PLC pays more at $4.94 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.95 to $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70% 14.3 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80% 16.3 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90% 18.4 bu
PLC pays more at $5.42 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.43 to $5.65. Both pay the same at $5.66. PLC pays more from $5.67 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100% 20.4 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
FSA history, non-irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
25.09
$5.50
21.03
none
2022
27.12
$5.50
3.57
$14.92
2023
26.08
$5.50
13.41
$14.34
2024
21.44
$6.21
27.09
none
2025
20.35
$6.98
34.13
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Sorghum 2026 in Armstrong County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even
All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (48.8 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (32.17 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 48.8 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)32.17 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$170.50/ac
Guarantee (90%)$153.45/ac
Max payment (12%)$20.46/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$17.39
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 31.92 · 2021: 45.33 (dropped) · 2022: 31.68 (dropped) · 2023: 32.36 · 2024: 32.24 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 32.17 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 32.9 bu, reaching its cap below 28.5 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 32.17 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 19.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.60 or lower. Both pay the same at $3.61. ARC-CO pays more from $3.62 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70% 22.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80% 25.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90% 29.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100% 32.2 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
48.36
$3.95
44.73
none
2022
41.84
$3.95
26.99
none
2023
39.34
$4.31
19.47
$16.96
2024
34.91
$5.01
21.60
$17.49
2025
35.26
$5.30
50.10
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Corn 2026 in Armstrong County: Leans ARC-CO
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.23 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.89 PLC vs $5.11 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $212.16 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $91.27 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.89 and ARC-CO $5.11 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $6.65 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $9.69 PLC vs $16.34 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 124.8 bu (program year 2025) and the official 177.89 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 124.8 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)177.89 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$894.79/ac
Guarantee (90%)$805.31/ac
Max payment (12%)$107.37/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$91.27
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 169.95 · 2021: 204.28 (dropped) · 2022: 159.27 (dropped) · 2023: 168.17 · 2024: 195.55 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 177.89 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 182.2 bu, reaching its cap below 157.9 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 177.89 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 106.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 124.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 142.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 160.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 177.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
152.20
$3.70
204.28
none
2022
152.20
$3.70
159.27
none
2023
152.70
$3.98
168.17
none
2024
161.79
$4.85
195.55
none
2025
165.80
$5.03
213.44
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $7.09 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $2.15 PLC vs $9.24 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $74.33 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $32.58 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $2.15 and ARC-CO $9.24 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 30.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 49.67 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 30.9 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)49.67 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.43
Benchmark revenue$319.38/ac
Guarantee (90%)$287.44/ac
Max payment (12%)$38.33/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$32.58
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 54 · 2021: 15.2 (dropped) · 2022: 90 (dropped) · 2023: 45 · 2024: 50 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 49.67 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 51.5 bu, reaching its cap below 44.6 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 49.67 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 29.8 bu
PLC pays more at $4.29 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.30 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
70% 34.8 bu
PLC pays more at $4.47 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.48 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
80% 39.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.62 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
90% 44.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.72 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.73 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
100% 49.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.80 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.81 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
61.33
$4.95
14.00
$30.36
2022
56.67
$4.95
90.00
none
2023
50.00
$4.95
45.00
none
2024
50.00
$5.07
50.00
none
2025
50.00
$6.10
3.00
$36.60
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $10.89 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $10.89 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $22.98 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $21.17 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $10.89 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 31.8 bu (program year 2025) and the official 52.67 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 31.8 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)52.67 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$207.52/ac
Guarantee (90%)$186.77/ac
Max payment (12%)$24.90/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$21.17
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 50 · 2021: 60 (dropped) · 2022: 53 · 2023: 55 · 2024: 43 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 52.67 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 61.2 bu, reaching its cap below 53.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 52.67 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 31.6 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70% 36.9 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80% 42.1 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90% 47.4 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100% 52.7 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
34.33
$2.55
60.00
none
2022
34.33
$2.67
53.00
none
2023
39.00
$2.75
55.00
none
2024
45.67
$3.38
43.00
none
2025
52.67
$3.84
63.00
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Soybeans 2026 in Armstrong County: Neither expected to pay
All practices, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $99.20 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $43.86 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $8.91 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 10 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $2.67 PLC vs $11.58 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 30.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 35.33 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 30.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)35.33 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$429.97/ac
Guarantee (90%)$386.97/ac
Max payment (12%)$51.60/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$43.86
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 35 · 2021: 38 · 2022: 33 · 2023: 39 (dropped) · 2024: 31 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 35.33 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 36.1 bu, reaching its cap below 31.3 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 35.33 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 21.2 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70% 24.7 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80% 28.3 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90% 31.8 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100% 35.3 bu
PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.25 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2022
40.67
$9.12
33.00
none
2023
39.33
$9.57
39.00
none
2024
38.00
$11.12
31.00
$42.26
2025
37.33
$12.17
28.00
$54.52
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Seed cotton 2026 in Armstrong County: Leans PLC
FSA’s seed cotton price is its own weighted average of the upland cotton lint price and the cottonseed price. We use FSA’s seed cotton series as published and never build it from the lint price. All seed cotton counties.
Non-irrigated: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (686.0 lb) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (611.21 lb), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.
Irrigated, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $8.44 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $10.20 PLC vs $1.75 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $69.97 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $97.51 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $10.20 and ARC-CO $1.75 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 686.0 lb (program year 2025) and the official 2,217.53 lb benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled seed cotton base in this county: 686.0 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)2,217.53 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4311
Benchmark revenue$955.98/ac
Guarantee (90%)$860.38/ac
Max payment (12%)$114.72/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$97.51
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 2075.52 · 2021: 3023.28 (dropped) · 2022: 2220.17 · 2023: 2356.9 · 2024: 2003.4 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 2,217.53 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 2,048.5 lb, reaching its cap below 1,775.4 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 2,217.53 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 1,330.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
70% 1,552.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
80% 1,774.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
90% 1,995.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
100% 2,217.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
FSA history, irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
2,800.44
$0.3670
3023.28
none
2022
2,541.89
$0.3670
2220.17
none
2023
2,541.89
$0.3670
2356.90
none
2024
2,334.62
$0.3958
2003.40
$92.40
2025
2,217.53
$0.4311
1817.88
$114.72
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)611.21 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4311
Benchmark revenue$263.49/ac
Guarantee (90%)$237.14/ac
Max payment (12%)$31.62/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$26.88
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 689.28 (dropped) · 2021: 689.28 · 2022: 572.16 (dropped) · 2023: 572.16 · 2024: 572.16 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 611.21 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 564.6 lb, reaching its cap below 489.3 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 611.21 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 366.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
70% 427.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
80% 489.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
90% 550.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
100% 611.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
FSA history, non-irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
1,159.70
$0.3670
660.34
$42.56
2022
1,006.25
$0.3670
271.39
$36.93
2023
689.28
$0.3670
99.50
$25.30
2024
668.16
$0.3958
403.08
$26.45
2025
650.23
$0.4311
514.85
$33.64
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
Questions about Armstrong County
Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Armstrong County for 2026?
For a typical farm (irrigated): Close, either one: about $1.81 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $4.53 PLC vs $6.34 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $54.99 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $29.55 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $4.53 and ARC-CO $6.34 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Armstrong County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Armstrong County, Texas is 41.51 bu (irrigated); 20.41 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Armstrong County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Armstrong County, Texas is 32.17 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Armstrong County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.23 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.89 PLC vs $5.11 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $212.16 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $91.27 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.89 and ARC-CO $5.11 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Armstrong County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Armstrong County, Texas is 177.89 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for barley in Armstrong County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $7.09 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $2.15 PLC vs $9.24 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $74.33 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $32.58 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $2.15 and ARC-CO $9.24 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for barley in Armstrong County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for barley in Armstrong County, Texas is 49.67 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.43 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for oats in Armstrong County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $10.89 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $10.89 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $22.98 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $21.17 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $10.89 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Armstrong County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Armstrong County, Texas is 52.67 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Armstrong County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $99.20 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $43.86 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Armstrong County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Armstrong County, Texas is 35.33 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for seed cotton in Armstrong County for 2026?
For a typical farm (irrigated): Leans PLC: expected about $8.44 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $10.20 PLC vs $1.75 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $69.97 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $97.51 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $10.20 and ARC-CO $1.75 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for seed cotton in Armstrong County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for seed cotton in Armstrong County, Texas is 2,217.53 lb (irrigated); 611.21 lb (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.4311 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.