What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.
Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?
Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.
Your main crops
Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet
Corn · non-irrigated
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: close, either one
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: close, either one
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: close, either one
Soybeans · non-irrigated
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: neither pays. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: ARC-CO
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: neither pays. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: ARC-CO
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: neither pays. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: ARC-CO
Wheat
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Wheat borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $3 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Wheat borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Smaller crops here
Each has under 400 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).
Sorghum
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $13 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $10 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $8 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Barley
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Deadlines
Dec 112026 signup ends Dec 11, 2026.
Nov 2 to Mar 152027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
Skip itDo nothing for 2026 and that farm gets no 2026 payment.
SignEvery owner and operator on the farm signs.
BringBring the farm’s FSA-156EZ. It lists the base acres and PLC yields.
2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Warren County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves.
Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: corn $4.70, soybeans $12.00, wheat $6.30, sorghum $4.50, barley $5.70). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average
price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, sorghum, barley have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.
Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.
2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, barley: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sorghum wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (corn 112.3 bu; soybeans 37.6 bu; wheat 41.3 bu; sorghum 68.9 bu; barley 38.0 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the
county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it.Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error
(2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in
at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop
Practice
Year
PLC
ARC-CO
Answer
Corn
Non-irrigated
2026
$0.80
$4.83
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
Non-irrigated
2027
$8.72
$13.99
Either one
Corn
Irrigated
2026
$0.80
$6.46
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
Irrigated
2027
$8.72
$22.94
Leans ARC-CO
Soybeans
Non-irrigated
2026
$0
$0
Neither pays
Soybeans
Non-irrigated
2027
$3.04
$15.24
ARC-CO
Soybeans
Irrigated
2026
$0
$0
Neither pays
Soybeans
Irrigated
2027
$3.04
$18.27
Leans ARC-CO
Wheat
All practices
2026
$7.61
$10.45
Leans ARC-CO
Wheat
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Sorghum
All practices
2026
$14.67
$25.04
Leans ARC-CO
Sorghum
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Barley
All practices
2026
$2.64
$9.70
Leans ARC-CO
Barley
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
FSA lists a benchmark here but no enrolled base for oats.
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
Corn 2026 in Warren County: Leans ARC-CO
Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.03 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.80 PLC vs $4.83 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $190.91 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $86.24 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.80 and ARC-CO $4.83 per base acre.
2027: Close, either one: about $5.27 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $8.72 PLC vs $13.99 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 112.3 bu (program year 2025) and the official 168.09 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $5.66 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.80 PLC vs $6.46 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $190.91 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $115.35 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.80 and ARC-CO $6.46 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $14.22 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $8.72 PLC vs $22.94 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 112.3 bu (program year 2025) and the official 224.83 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 112.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)224.83 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$1,130.89/ac
Guarantee (90%)$1,017.81/ac
Max payment (12%)$135.71/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$115.35
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 224.95 · 2021: 164.58 (dropped) · 2022: 234.23 (dropped) · 2023: 226.07 · 2024: 223.47 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 224.83 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 230.3 bu, reaching its cap below 199.6 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 224.83 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 134.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 157.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 179.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 202.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 224.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
FSA history, irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
202.94
$3.70
157.23
none
2022
210.21
$3.70
228.35
none
2023
210.28
$3.98
221.66
none
2024
220.04
$4.85
220.53
none
2025
219.10
$5.03
205.66
$132.25
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)168.09 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$845.49/ac
Guarantee (90%)$760.94/ac
Max payment (12%)$101.46/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$86.24
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 176.42 · 2021: 151.96 (dropped) · 2022: 163.37 · 2023: 164.47 · 2024: 180.73 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 168.09 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 172.2 bu, reaching its cap below 149.2 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 168.09 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 100.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 117.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 134.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 151.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 168.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
FSA history, non-irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
151.47
$3.70
144.71
none
2022
161.05
$3.70
157.57
none
2023
154.51
$3.98
160.12
none
2024
154.52
$4.85
177.83
none
2025
158.67
$5.03
164.08
$35.73
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Soybeans 2026 in Warren County: Neither expected to pay
Non-irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $124.32 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $64.72 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Pick ARC-CO (expected $3.04 PLC vs $15.24 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 37.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 52.14 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $124.32 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $83.07 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $15.24 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $3.04 PLC vs $18.27 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 37.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 66.92 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 37.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)66.92 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$814.42/ac
Guarantee (90%)$732.97/ac
Max payment (12%)$97.73/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$83.07
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 67.64 · 2021: 68.33 (dropped) · 2022: 64.84 · 2023: 68.28 · 2024: 51.3 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 66.92 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 68.4 bu, reaching its cap below 59.3 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 66.92 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 40.2 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70% 46.8 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80% 53.5 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90% 60.2 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100% 66.9 bu
PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.25 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
FSA history, irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
66.92
$8.95
66.08
none
2022
67.72
$9.12
63.04
none
2023
68.41
$9.57
66.93
none
2024
67.56
$11.12
44.60
$75.13
2025
67.63
$12.17
60.26
$98.77
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)52.14 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$634.54/ac
Guarantee (90%)$571.09/ac
Max payment (12%)$76.15/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$64.72
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 54.17 · 2021: 51.29 · 2022: 54.26 (dropped) · 2023: 50.96 · 2024: 45.5 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 52.14 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 53.3 bu, reaching its cap below 46.2 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 52.14 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 31.3 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70% 36.5 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80% 41.7 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90% 46.9 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100% 52.1 bu
PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.25 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
FSA history, non-irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
49.77
$8.95
49.04
none
2022
51.35
$9.12
52.46
none
2023
50.85
$9.57
49.61
none
2024
51.57
$11.12
44.60
$47.18
2025
52.02
$12.17
43.01
$75.97
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Wheat 2026 in Warren County: Leans ARC-CO
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $2.85 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $7.61 PLC vs $10.45 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $92.33 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $48.75 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $7.61 and ARC-CO $10.45 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 41.3 bu (program year 2025) and the official 68.47 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 41.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)68.47 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$477.92/ac
Guarantee (90%)$430.13/ac
Max payment (12%)$57.35/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$48.75
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 66.23 · 2021: 74.08 (dropped) · 2022: 66.1 · 2023: 63.48 (dropped) · 2024: 73.09 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 68.47 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 67.7 bu, reaching its cap below 58.7 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 68.47 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 41.1 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70% 47.9 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80% 54.8 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.00. PLC pays more from $6.01 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90% 61.6 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100% 68.5 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
58.08
$5.50
71.78
none
2022
62.21
$5.50
64.26
none
2023
64.77
$5.50
62.10
none
2024
64.11
$6.21
72.17
none
2025
64.78
$6.98
71.59
$44.69
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $10.37 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $14.67 PLC vs $25.04 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $131.77 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $47.92 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $14.67 and ARC-CO $25.04 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 68.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 88.64 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 68.9 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)88.64 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$469.79/ac
Guarantee (90%)$422.81/ac
Max payment (12%)$56.38/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$47.92
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 90.45 · 2021: 78.35 (dropped) · 2022: 85.32 · 2023: 90.16 · 2024: 110.51 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 88.64 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 90.5 bu, reaching its cap below 78.5 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 88.64 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 53.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.62 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70% 62.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80% 70.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90% 79.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100% 88.6 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
88.72
$3.95
76.45
none
2022
92.19
$3.95
83.80
none
2023
92.58
$4.31
89.02
none
2024
91.88
$5.01
109.75
none
2025
88.30
$5.30
81.41
$56.16
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $7.06 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $2.64 PLC vs $9.70 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $91.41 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $34.19 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $2.64 and ARC-CO $9.70 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 38.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 52.13 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 38.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)52.13 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.43
Benchmark revenue$335.20/ac
Guarantee (90%)$301.68/ac
Max payment (12%)$40.22/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$34.19
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 51 · 2021: 66 · 2022: 35.6 (dropped) · 2023: 39.4 · 2024: 75 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 52.13 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 54.1 bu, reaching its cap below 46.9 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 52.13 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 31.3 bu
PLC pays more at $4.29 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.30 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
70% 36.5 bu
PLC pays more at $4.47 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.48 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
80% 41.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.62 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
90% 46.9 bu
PLC pays more at $4.72 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.73 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
100% 52.1 bu
PLC pays more at $4.80 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.81 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
46.00
$4.95
66.00
none
2022
42.00
$4.95
35.60
none
2023
42.00
$4.95
39.40
none
2024
39.87
$5.07
75.00
none
2025
42.00
$6.10
80.00
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Oats 2026 in Warren County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 43 (dropped) · 2021: 60 · 2022: 52 · 2023: 68 (dropped) · 2024: 66 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 59.33 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 69.0 bu, reaching its cap below 59.8 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 59.33 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 35.6 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70% 41.5 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80% 47.5 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90% 53.4 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100% 59.3 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
57.33
$2.55
60.00
none
2022
50.67
$2.67
52.00
none
2023
50.67
$2.75
68.00
none
2024
48.00
$3.38
66.00
none
2025
53.00
$3.84
58.00
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
Questions about Warren County
Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Warren County for 2026?
For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.03 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.80 PLC vs $4.83 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $190.91 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $86.24 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.80 and ARC-CO $4.83 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Warren County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Warren County, Missouri is 224.83 bu (irrigated); 168.09 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Warren County for 2026?
For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $124.32 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $64.72 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Warren County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Warren County, Missouri is 66.92 bu (irrigated); 52.14 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Warren County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $2.85 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $7.61 PLC vs $10.45 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $92.33 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $48.75 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $7.61 and ARC-CO $10.45 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Warren County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Warren County, Missouri is 68.47 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for sorghum in Warren County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $10.37 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $14.67 PLC vs $25.04 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $131.77 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $47.92 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $14.67 and ARC-CO $25.04 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Warren County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Warren County, Missouri is 88.64 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for barley in Warren County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $7.06 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $2.64 PLC vs $9.70 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $91.41 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $34.19 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $2.64 and ARC-CO $9.70 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for barley in Warren County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for barley in Warren County, Missouri is 52.13 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.43 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Warren County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Warren County, Missouri is 59.33 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.