Pennington County, Minnesota

ARC or PLC: the short answer for Pennington County, Minnesota

Name: Pennington County, Minnesota 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (FSA official)
Creator: AGSIST
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

By Sigurd Lindquist, a Certified Crop Adviser (CCA). Data updated Oct 9, 2026

What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.

State

County

Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?

Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.

Your main crops

Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet

Wheat

Either oneClose

They come out about $1 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.

PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Soybeans

Neither expected to payClose

Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).

PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.

2027: leans ARC-CO

Barley

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $9 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Smaller crops here

Each has under 10,100 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).

Corn

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.

PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.

2027: close, either one

Oats

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $18 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.

PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Sunflower seed

Either oneClose

PLC comes out about $2 more per base acre, but it swings more than that from year to year.

PLC only pays if sunflower seed averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Canola

Either oneClose

They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.

PLC only pays if canola averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Flaxseed

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $5 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Flaxseed borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if flaxseed averages under $13.30 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Sorghum

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $15 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Deadlines

Dec 112026 signup ends Dec 11, 2026.
Nov 2 to Mar 152027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
Skip itDo nothing for 2026 and that farm gets no 2026 payment.
SignEvery owner and operator on the farm signs.
BringBring the farm’s FSA-156EZ. It lists the base acres and PLC yields.

Counter sheet for the FSA office Share this county

Show the math

2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Pennington County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves. Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: wheat $6.30, soybeans $12.00, barley $5.70, corn $4.70, oats $3.35, sorghum $4.50; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: sunflower seed $0.2470, canola $0.2450, flaxseed $13.00). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, barley, oats, sunflower seed, canola, flaxseed, sorghum have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.

Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.

2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, barley, oats, canola, flaxseed: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sunflower seed, sorghum wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.

Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (wheat 51.7 bu; soybeans 28.7 bu; barley 55.1 bu; corn 92.1 bu; oats 54.7 bu; sunflower seed 1,468.6 lb; canola 1,141.2 lb; flaxseed 9.9 bu; sorghum 40.0 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.

How we call it. Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error (2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.

Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop	Practice	Year	PLC	ARC-CO	Answer
Wheat	All practices	2026	$9.52	$8.46	Either one
Wheat	All practices	2027	none	none	No 2027 price yet
Soybeans	All practices	2026	$0	$0	Neither pays
Soybeans	All practices	2027	$2.32	$10.98	Leans ARC-CO
Barley	All practices	2026	$3.83	$12.68	Leans ARC-CO
Barley	All practices	2027	none	none	No 2027 price yet
Corn	All practices	2026	$0.66	$4.16	Leans ARC-CO
Corn	All practices	2027	$7.15	$9.16	Either one
Oats	All practices	2026	$0	$17.53	Leans ARC-CO
Oats	All practices	2027	none	none	No 2027 price yet
Sunflower seed	All practices	2026	$2.04	$0	Either one
Sunflower seed	All practices	2027	none	none	Wait for USDA
Canola	All practices	2026	$2.25	$1.53	Either one
Canola	All practices	2027	none	none	No 2027 price yet
Flaxseed	All practices	2026	$4.82	$9.51	Leans ARC-CO
Flaxseed	All practices	2027	none	none	No 2027 price yet
Sorghum	All practices	2026	$8.52	$23.50	Leans ARC-CO
Sorghum	All practices	2027	none	none	Wait for USDA

Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Data updated Oct 9, 2026 Full method and back-test.

Wheat 2026 in Pennington County: Close, either one

All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.07 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $9.52 PLC vs $8.46 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 6 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $115.58 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $39.44 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $9.52 and ARC-CO $8.46 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 51.7 bu (program year 2025) and the official 55.39 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 51.7 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)55.39 bu

Benchmark price 2026$6.98

Benchmark revenue$386.62/ac

Guarantee (90%)$347.96/ac

Max payment (12%)$46.39/ac

Max per base acre (×85%)$39.44

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 52.88 · 2021: 50.35 · 2022: 62.95 · ~~2023: 71.76~~ (dropped) · ~~2024: 48.14~~ (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 55.39 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 54.8 bu, reaching its cap below 47.5 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 55.39 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmark	Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 33.2 bu	PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70% 38.8 bu	PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80% 44.3 bu	PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90% 49.9 bu	PLC pays more at $5.42 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.43 to $5.66. PLC pays more from $5.67 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100% 55.4 bu	PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

Year	Benchmark	Price	County yield	ARC-CO $/ac
2021	66.14	$5.50	37.97	$23.13
2022	62.48	$5.50	61.07	none
2023	58.04	$5.50	70.35	none
2024	56.20	$6.21	43.09	$34.90
2025	56.68	$6.98	73.40	none

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Soybeans 2026 in Pennington County: Neither expected to pay

All practices, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $94.90 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $43.36 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $8.66 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $2.32 PLC vs $10.98 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 28.7 bu (program year 2025) and the official 34.93 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 28.7 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)34.93 bu

Benchmark price 2026$12.17

Benchmark revenue$425.10/ac

Guarantee (90%)$382.59/ac

Max payment (12%)$51.01/ac

Max per base acre (×85%)$43.36

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 35.15 · ~~2021: 27.1~~ (dropped) · 2022: 36.1 · ~~2023: 41.01~~ (dropped) · 2024: 33.53 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 34.93 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 35.7 bu, reaching its cap below 31.0 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 34.93 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmark	Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 21.0 bu	PLC pays more at $8.28 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.29 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70% 24.5 bu	PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80% 27.9 bu	PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90% 31.4 bu	PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100% 34.9 bu	PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.25 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

Year	Benchmark	Price	County yield	ARC-CO $/ac
2021	34.36	$8.95	18.52	$18.15
2022	33.87	$9.12	34.90	none
2023	31.27	$9.57	40.11	none
2024	34.44	$11.12	32.93	$0.05
2025	34.99	$12.17	38.26	none

Barley 2026 in Pennington County: Leans ARC-CO

All barley counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $8.85 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $3.83 PLC vs $12.68 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $132.54 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $44.69 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $3.83 and ARC-CO $12.68 per base acre.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 55.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 68.14 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 55.1 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)68.14 bu

Benchmark price 2026$6.43

Benchmark revenue$438.14/ac

Guarantee (90%)$394.33/ac

Max payment (12%)$52.58/ac

Max per base acre (×85%)$44.69

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 55.16 · ~~2021: 54.9~~ (dropped) · 2022: 75.54 · ~~2023: 89.49~~ (dropped) · 2024: 73.71 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 68.14 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 70.7 bu, reaching its cap below 61.2 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 68.14 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmark	Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 40.9 bu	PLC pays more at $4.29 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.30 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
70% 47.7 bu	PLC pays more at $4.47 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.48 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
80% 54.5 bu	PLC pays more at $4.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.62 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
90% 61.3 bu	PLC pays more at $4.72 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.73 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
100% 68.1 bu	PLC pays more at $4.80 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.81 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

Year	Benchmark	Price	County yield	ARC-CO $/ac
2021	85.10	$4.95	40.30	$42.13
2022	83.83	$4.95	74.50	none
2023	77.25	$4.95	88.71	none
2024	72.02	$5.07	73.19	none
2025	72.37	$6.10	83.76	none

Corn 2026 in Pennington County: Leans ARC-CO

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.51 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.66 PLC vs $4.16 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $156.57 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $74.27 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.66 and ARC-CO $4.16 per base acre.

2027: Close, either one: about $2.01 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $7.15 PLC vs $9.16 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 92.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 144.76 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 92.1 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)144.76 bu

Benchmark price 2026$5.03

Benchmark revenue$728.14/ac

Guarantee (90%)$655.33/ac

Max payment (12%)$87.38/ac

Max per base acre (×85%)$74.27

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 124.52 · ~~2021: 109.85~~ (dropped) · 2022: 157.55 · ~~2023: 174.88~~ (dropped) · 2024: 152.22 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 144.76 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 148.3 bu, reaching its cap below 128.5 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 144.76 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmark	Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 86.9 bu	PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 101.3 bu	PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 115.8 bu	PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 130.3 bu	PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 144.8 bu	PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

Year	Benchmark	Price	County yield	ARC-CO $/ac
2021	156.56	$3.70	80.82	$13.25
2022	145.62	$3.70	149.03	none
2023	132.52	$3.98	168.49	none
2024	143.51	$4.85	147.96	none
2025	148.70	$5.03	183.99	none

Oats 2026 in Pennington County: Leans ARC-CO

All oats counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $17.53 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $17.53 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $39.52 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $34.06 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $17.53 per base acre.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 54.7 bu (program year 2025) and the official 84.75 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 54.7 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)84.75 bu

Benchmark price 2026$3.94

Benchmark revenue$333.92/ac

Guarantee (90%)$300.52/ac

Max payment (12%)$40.07/ac

Max per base acre (×85%)$34.06

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 69.71 · ~~2021: 54.4~~ (dropped) · 2022: 103.02 · ~~2023: 113.32~~ (dropped) · 2024: 81.53 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 84.75 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 98.5 bu, reaching its cap below 85.4 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 84.75 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmark	Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 50.9 bu	PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70% 59.3 bu	PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80% 67.8 bu	PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90% 76.3 bu	PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100% 84.8 bu	PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

Year	Benchmark	Price	County yield	ARC-CO $/ac
2021	100.76	$2.55	41.47	$25.69
2022	100.76	$2.67	103.02	none
2023	94.93	$2.75	113.32	none
2024	92.41	$3.38	81.53	none
2025	94.43	$3.84	130.78	none

Sunflower seed 2026 in Pennington County: Close, either one

All sunflower seed counties.

All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $2.04 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $2.04 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $157.91 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $62.06 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2470, PLC is expected to pay $2.04 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 1,468.6 lb (program year 2025) and the official 2,422.21 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled sunflower seed base in this county: 1,468.6 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)2,422.21 lb

Benchmark price 2026$0.2512

Benchmark revenue$608.46/ac

Guarantee (90%)$547.61/ac

Max payment (12%)$73.02/ac

Max per base acre (×85%)$62.06

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): ~~2020: 1874.61~~ (dropped) · 2021: 2488.81 · 2022: 2684.7 · ~~2023: 2778.91~~ (dropped) · 2024: 2093.11 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 2,422.21 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 2,305.7 lb, reaching its cap below 1,998.3 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 2,422.21 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmark	Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 1,453.3 lb	PLC pays more at $0.1872 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1873 to $0.2089. PLC pays more from $0.2090 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70% 1,695.5 lb	PLC pays more at $0.1944 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1945 to $0.1994. PLC pays more from $0.1995 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80% 1,937.8 lb	PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90% 2,180.0 lb	PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100% 2,422.2 lb	PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

Year	Benchmark	Price	County yield	ARC-CO $/ac
2021	1,805.51	$0.2015	2457.26	none
2022	1,791.37	$0.2015	2659.46	none
2023	2,212.29	$0.2053	2759.98	none
2024	2,293.17	$0.2308	2080.49	none
2025	2,342.86	$0.2510	2285.53	none

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Canola 2026 in Pennington County: Close, either one

All canola counties.

All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $0.72 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $2.25 PLC vs $1.53 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 4 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $122.71 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $44.75 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 3 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2450, PLC is expected to pay $2.25 and ARC-CO $1.53 per base acre.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 1,141.2 lb (program year 2025) and the official 1,690.74 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled canola base in this county: 1,141.2 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)1,690.74 lb

Benchmark price 2026$0.2595

Benchmark revenue$438.75/ac

Guarantee (90%)$394.87/ac

Max payment (12%)$52.65/ac

Max per base acre (×85%)$44.75

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1474.26 · 2021: 1446.15 · 2022: 2151.82 · ~~2023: 2578.87~~ (dropped) · ~~2024: 1265.82~~ (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,690.74 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 1,662.6 lb, reaching its cap below 1,440.9 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,690.74 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmark	Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 1,014.4 lb	PLC pays more at $0.1855 or lower. Both pay the same at $0.1856. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1857 to $0.2276. PLC pays more from $0.2277 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70% 1,183.5 lb	PLC pays more at $0.1930 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1931 to $0.2243. PLC pays more from $0.2244 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80% 1,352.6 lb	PLC pays more at $0.1985 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1986 to $0.2177. PLC pays more from $0.2178 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90% 1,521.7 lb	PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100% 1,690.7 lb	PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

Year	Benchmark	Price	County yield	ARC-CO $/ac
2021	1,845.52	$0.2015	965.06	$2.31
2022	1,719.59	$0.2015	2039.38	none
2023	1,378.20	$0.2015	2494.54	none
2024	1,409.56	$0.2337	1170.83	$32.94
2025	1,680.02	$0.2595	2458.62	none

Flaxseed 2026 in Pennington County: Leans ARC-CO

All flaxseed counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.69 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $4.82 PLC vs $9.51 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $13.30, up to $59.61 per base acre at the $6.216 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $32.13 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $13.00, PLC is expected to pay $4.82 and ARC-CO $9.51 per base acre.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 9.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 21.43 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled flaxseed base in this county: 9.9 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)21.43 bu

Benchmark price 2026$14.70

Benchmark revenue$315.02/ac

Guarantee (90%)$283.52/ac

Max payment (12%)$37.80/ac

Max per base acre (×85%)$32.13

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): ~~2020: 16.3~~ (dropped) · 2021: 18.9 · ~~2022: 31.94~~ (dropped) · 2023: 20.38 · 2024: 25.02 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 21.43 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($13.30/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 21.3 bu, reaching its cap below 18.5 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 21.43 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmark	Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 12.9 bu	PLC pays more at $10.36 or lower. Both pay the same at $10.37. ARC-CO pays more from $10.38 to $13.12. PLC pays more from $13.13 to $13.29. Neither pays at $13.30 or higher.
70% 15.0 bu	PLC pays more at $10.77 or lower. Both pay the same at $10.78. ARC-CO pays more from $10.79 to $13.06. PLC pays more from $13.07 to $13.29. Neither pays at $13.30 or higher.
80% 17.1 bu	PLC pays more at $11.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $11.09 to $12.95. PLC pays more from $12.96 to $13.29. Neither pays at $13.30 or higher.
90% 19.3 bu	PLC pays more at $11.34 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $11.35 to $12.59. Both pay the same at $12.60. PLC pays more from $12.61 to $13.29. Neither pays at $13.30 or higher.
100% 21.4 bu	PLC pays more at $13.29 or lower. Neither pays at $13.30 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

Year	Benchmark	Price	County yield	ARC-CO $/ac
2022	17.16	$11.284	31.94	none
2023	18.73	$11.284	20.38	none
2024	18.73	$13.356	25.02	none
2025	18.53	$14.70	29.12	none

Sorghum 2026 in Pennington County: Leans ARC-CO

All sorghum counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $14.98 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $8.52 PLC vs $23.50 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $76.50 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $44.97 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $8.52 and ARC-CO $23.50 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 40.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 83.19 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 40.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)83.19 bu

Benchmark price 2026$5.30

Benchmark revenue$440.91/ac

Guarantee (90%)$396.82/ac

Max payment (12%)$52.91/ac

Max per base acre (×85%)$44.97

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): ~~2020: 71~~ (dropped) · ~~2021: 94~~ (dropped) · 2022: 81.83 · 2023: 88.21 · 2024: 79.52 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 83.19 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 85.0 bu, reaching its cap below 73.6 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 83.19 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmark	Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 49.9 bu	PLC pays more at $3.60 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.61 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70% 58.2 bu	PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80% 66.6 bu	PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90% 74.9 bu	PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100% 83.2 bu	PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

Year	Benchmark	Price	County yield	ARC-CO $/ac
2021	66.17	$3.95	94.00	none
2022	62.83	$3.95	81.83	none
2023	62.83	$4.31	88.21	none
2024	71.94	$5.01	79.52	none
2025	80.35	$5.30	83.50	$51.10

Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.

Run every number for your farm

Run your farm’s numbers

Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.

Crop

State

County

Base acres for this crop

From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.

PLC payment yield (bu/acre)

On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.

ARC-CO benchmark yield (bu/acre)

Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.

Expected county yield (bu/acre)

County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.

Expected season-average price ($/bu)

USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.

FSA farm number (optional)

Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.

Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.

Questions about Pennington County

Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Pennington County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $1.07 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $9.52 PLC vs $8.46 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 6 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $115.58 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $39.44 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $9.52 and ARC-CO $8.46 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Pennington County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Pennington County, Minnesota is 55.39 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Pennington County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $94.90 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $43.36 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Pennington County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Pennington County, Minnesota is 34.93 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for barley in Pennington County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $8.85 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $3.83 PLC vs $12.68 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $132.54 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $44.69 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $3.83 and ARC-CO $12.68 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for barley in Pennington County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for barley in Pennington County, Minnesota is 68.14 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.43 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Pennington County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.51 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.66 PLC vs $4.16 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $156.57 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $74.27 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.66 and ARC-CO $4.16 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Pennington County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Pennington County, Minnesota is 144.76 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for oats in Pennington County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $17.53 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $17.53 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $39.52 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $34.06 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $17.53 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Pennington County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Pennington County, Minnesota is 84.75 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for sunflower seed in Pennington County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $2.04 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $2.04 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $157.91 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $62.06 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2470, PLC is expected to pay $2.04 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Pennington County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Pennington County, Minnesota is 2,422.21 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2512 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for canola in Pennington County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $0.72 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $2.25 PLC vs $1.53 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 4 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $122.71 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $44.75 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 3 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2450, PLC is expected to pay $2.25 and ARC-CO $1.53 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for canola in Pennington County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for canola in Pennington County, Minnesota is 1,690.74 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2595 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for flaxseed in Pennington County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.69 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $4.82 PLC vs $9.51 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $13.30, up to $59.61 per base acre at the $6.216 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $32.13 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $13.00, PLC is expected to pay $4.82 and ARC-CO $9.51 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for flaxseed in Pennington County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for flaxseed in Pennington County, Minnesota is 21.43 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $14.70 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for sorghum in Pennington County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $14.98 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $8.52 PLC vs $23.50 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $76.50 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $44.97 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $8.52 and ARC-CO $23.50 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Pennington County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Pennington County, Minnesota is 83.19 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

An estimate, not a USDA determination. Source: FSA ARC/PLC program data. Find your county office.

Printed from https://agsist.com/arc-plc/minnesota/pennington-county