Berrien County, Michigan

ARC or PLC: the short answer for Berrien County, Michigan

By Sigurd Lindquist, a Certified Crop Adviser (CCA).

What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.

Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?

Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.

Your main crops

Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet

Corn · non-irrigated

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.

PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.

Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: leans ARC-CO

Soybeans · non-irrigated

Neither expected to payClose

Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).

PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.

Irrigated ground: neither pays. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: close, either one

Wheat

Either oneClose

They come out about $1 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.

PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Smaller crops here

Each has under 100 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).

Oats

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $13 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.

PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Sorghum

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $8 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Barley

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Sunflower seed

Either oneClose

PLC comes out about $2 more per base acre, but it swings more than that from year to year.

PLC only pays if sunflower seed averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Deadlines

Counter sheet for the FSA office Share this county

Show the math

2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Berrien County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves. Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: corn $4.70, soybeans $12.00, wheat $6.30, oats $3.35, sorghum $4.50, barley $5.70; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: sunflower seed $0.2470). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, oats, sorghum, barley, sunflower seed have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.

Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.

2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, oats, barley: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sorghum, sunflower seed wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.

Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (corn 136.5 bu; soybeans 39.6 bu; wheat 51.3 bu; oats 57.5 bu; sorghum 52.0 bu; barley 46.0 bu; sunflower seed 1,500.0 lb) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.

How we call it. Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error (2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.

Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
CropPracticeYearPLCARC-COAnswer
CornNon-irrigated2026$0.97$5.19Leans ARC-CO
CornNon-irrigated2027$10.60$20.21Leans ARC-CO
CornIrrigated2026$0.97$6.47Leans ARC-CO
CornIrrigated2027$10.60$13.78Either one
SoybeansNon-irrigated2026$0$0Neither pays
SoybeansNon-irrigated2027$3.20$7.61Either one
SoybeansIrrigated2026$0$0Neither pays
SoybeansIrrigated2027$3.20$14.68Leans ARC-CO
WheatAll practices2026$9.45$10.81Either one
WheatAll practices2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet
OatsAll practices2026$0$12.92Leans ARC-CO
OatsAll practices2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet
SorghumAll practices2026$11.07$19.09Leans ARC-CO
SorghumAll practices2027nonenoneWait for USDA
BarleyAll practices2026$3.20$9.87Leans ARC-CO
BarleyAll practices2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet
Sunflower seedAll practices2026$2.08$0Either one
Sunflower seedAll practices2027nonenoneWait for USDA

Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.

Corn 2026 in Berrien County: Leans ARC-CO

Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.22 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.97 PLC vs $5.19 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $232.05 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $92.67 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.97 and ARC-CO $5.19 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $9.61 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $10.60 PLC vs $20.21 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 136.5 bu (program year 2025) and the official 180.62 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $5.50 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.97 PLC vs $6.47 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $232.05 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $115.42 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.97 and ARC-CO $6.47 per base acre.

2027: Close, either one: about $3.18 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $10.60 PLC vs $13.78 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 136.5 bu (program year 2025) and the official 224.97 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 136.5 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)224.97 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$1,131.60/ac
Guarantee (90%)$1,018.44/ac
Max payment (12%)$135.79/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$115.42

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 217.17 (dropped) · 2021: 226.46 · 2022: 226.7 · 2023: 232.11 (dropped) · 2024: 221.75 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 224.97 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 230.4 bu, reaching its cap below 199.7 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 224.97 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
135.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70%
157.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80%
180.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90%
202.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100%
225.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
2021215.09$3.70215.66none
2022211.47$3.70218.06none
2023215.23$3.98225.63none
2024217.41$4.85217.43none
2025220.92$5.03218.32$91.90

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)180.62 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$908.52/ac
Guarantee (90%)$817.67/ac
Max payment (12%)$109.02/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$92.67

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 168.08 (dropped) · 2021: 189.96 (dropped) · 2022: 185.39 · 2023: 187.71 · 2024: 168.75 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 180.62 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 185.0 bu, reaching its cap below 160.3 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 180.62 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
108.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70%
126.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80%
144.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90%
162.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100%
180.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
2021172.74$3.70179.76none
2022168.17$3.70177.23none
2023172.71$3.98181.59none
2024173.26$4.85164.67$24.47
2025178.09$5.03156.40$107.49

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Soybeans 2026 in Berrien County: Neither expected to pay

Non-irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $130.94 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $57.36 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Close, either one: about $4.41 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $3.20 PLC vs $7.61 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 2). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 39.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 46.21 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $130.94 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $75.19 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $11.48 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $3.20 PLC vs $14.68 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 39.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 60.57 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 39.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)60.57 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$737.14/ac
Guarantee (90%)$663.42/ac
Max payment (12%)$88.46/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$75.19

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 67.61 (dropped) · 2021: 64.33 · 2022: 58.99 · 2023: 58.39 · 2024: 54.89 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 60.57 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 61.9 bu, reaching its cap below 53.7 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 60.57 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
36.3 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70%
42.4 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80%
48.5 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90%
54.5 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100%
60.6 bu
PLC pays more at $9.25 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.26 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202162.15$8.9562.03none
202263.79$9.1257.15none
202362.36$9.5757.01none
202462.78$11.1253.97$60.67
202560.11$12.1759.92$29.23

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)46.21 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$562.38/ac
Guarantee (90%)$506.14/ac
Max payment (12%)$67.49/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$57.36

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 45.63 · 2021: 53.06 (dropped) · 2022: 46.22 · 2023: 46.79 · 2024: 39.81 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 46.21 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 47.3 bu, reaching its cap below 41.0 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 46.21 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
27.7 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70%
32.3 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80%
37.0 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90%
41.6 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100%
46.2 bu
PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.25 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202149.48$8.9550.86none
202246.82$9.1244.46none
202346.70$9.5745.47none
202447.48$11.1238.93$52.80
202545.77$12.1748.37none

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Wheat 2026 in Berrien County: Close, either one

All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.36 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $9.45 PLC vs $10.81 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $114.68 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $50.40 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $9.45 and ARC-CO $10.81 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 51.3 bu (program year 2025) and the official 70.79 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 51.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)70.79 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$494.11/ac
Guarantee (90%)$444.70/ac
Max payment (12%)$59.29/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$50.40

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 67.53 · 2021: 72.02 · 2022: 72.83 · 2023: 63.91 (dropped) · 2024: 79.32 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 70.79 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 70.0 bu, reaching its cap below 60.7 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 70.79 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
42.5 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70%
49.6 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80%
56.6 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90%
63.7 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.66. Both pay the same at $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100%
70.8 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202174.15$5.5068.42none
202272.48$5.5069.95none
202370.81$5.5061.75none
202471.64$6.2177.88none
202570.11$6.98103.59none

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Oats 2026 in Berrien County: Leans ARC-CO

All oats counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $12.92 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $12.92 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $41.54 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $25.11 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $12.92 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 57.5 bu (program year 2025) and the official 62.49 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 57.5 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)62.49 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$246.21/ac
Guarantee (90%)$221.59/ac
Max payment (12%)$29.55/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$25.11

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 51.2 (dropped) · 2021: 79.6 (dropped) · 2022: 60.62 · 2023: 60.84 · 2024: 66 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 62.49 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 72.7 bu, reaching its cap below 63.0 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 62.49 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
37.5 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70%
43.7 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80%
50.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90%
56.2 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100%
62.5 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202158.89$2.5579.60none
202254.95$2.6760.62none
202357.29$2.7560.84none
202460.43$3.3866.00none
202559.71$3.8446.80$27.51

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Sorghum 2026 in Berrien County: Leans ARC-CO

All sorghum counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $8.02 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $11.07 PLC vs $19.09 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $99.45 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $36.53 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $11.07 and ARC-CO $19.09 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 52.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 67.58 bu benchmark. County yields from the Michigan average for this crop and practice (the county has fewer than 8 years). Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 52.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)67.58 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$358.17/ac
Guarantee (90%)$322.36/ac
Max payment (12%)$42.98/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$36.53

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 83.83 · 2021: 102.39 (dropped) · 2022: 57.6 (dropped) · 2023: 57.6 · 2024: 61.3 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 67.58 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 69.0 bu, reaching its cap below 59.8 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 67.58 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
40.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.60 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.61 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70%
47.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80%
54.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90%
60.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100%
67.6 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202571.20$5.3072.60$45.28

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Barley 2026 in Berrien County: Leans ARC-CO

All barley counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $6.67 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $3.20 PLC vs $9.87 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $110.65 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $34.77 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $3.20 and ARC-CO $9.87 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 46.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 53.02 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 46.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)53.02 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.43
Benchmark revenue$340.92/ac
Guarantee (90%)$306.83/ac
Max payment (12%)$40.91/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$34.77

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 49.05 · 2021: 89.63 (dropped) · 2022: 50 · 2023: 60 · 2024: 45 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 53.02 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 55.0 bu, reaching its cap below 47.7 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 53.02 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
31.8 bu
PLC pays more at $4.29 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.30 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
70%
37.1 bu
PLC pays more at $4.47 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.48 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
80%
42.4 bu
PLC pays more at $4.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.62 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
90%
47.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.72 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.73 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
100%
53.0 bu
PLC pays more at $4.80 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.81 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202158.10$4.9589.63none
202255.79$4.9550.00none
202363.66$4.9560.00none
202450.45$5.0745.00none
202554.10$6.1057.00none

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Sunflower seed 2026 in Berrien County: Close, either one

All sunflower seed counties.

All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $2.08 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $2.08 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $161.29 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $44.08 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2470, PLC is expected to pay $2.08 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 1,500.0 lb (program year 2025) and the official 1,720.36 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled sunflower seed base in this county: 1,500.0 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)1,720.36 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.2512
Benchmark revenue$432.15/ac
Guarantee (90%)$388.94/ac
Max payment (12%)$51.86/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$44.08

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1664.08 · 2021: 1896.33 (dropped) · 2022: 1750 · 2023: 1747 · 2024: 1664 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,720.36 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 1,637.6 lb, reaching its cap below 1,419.3 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,720.36 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
1,032.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1872 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1873 to $0.2089. PLC pays more from $0.2090 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70%
1,204.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1944 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1945 to $0.1994. PLC pays more from $0.1995 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80%
1,376.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90%
1,548.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100%
1,720.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
20211,398.93$0.20151896.33none
20221,478.93$0.20151750.00none
20231,602.69$0.20531747.00none
20241,661.03$0.23081664.00none
20251,720.36$0.25101863.00none

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.

Run every number for your farm

Run your farm’s numbers

Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.

From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.

On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.

Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.

County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.

USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.

Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.

Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.

Questions about Berrien County

Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Berrien County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.22 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.97 PLC vs $5.19 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $232.05 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $92.67 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.97 and ARC-CO $5.19 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Berrien County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Berrien County, Michigan is 224.97 bu (irrigated); 180.62 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Berrien County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $130.94 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $57.36 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Berrien County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Berrien County, Michigan is 60.57 bu (irrigated); 46.21 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Berrien County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $1.36 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $9.45 PLC vs $10.81 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $114.68 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $50.40 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $9.45 and ARC-CO $10.81 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Berrien County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Berrien County, Michigan is 70.79 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for oats in Berrien County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $12.92 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $12.92 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $41.54 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $25.11 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $12.92 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Berrien County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Berrien County, Michigan is 62.49 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for sorghum in Berrien County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $8.02 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $11.07 PLC vs $19.09 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $99.45 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $36.53 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $11.07 and ARC-CO $19.09 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Berrien County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Berrien County, Michigan is 67.58 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for barley in Berrien County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $6.67 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $3.20 PLC vs $9.87 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $110.65 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $34.77 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $3.20 and ARC-CO $9.87 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for barley in Berrien County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for barley in Berrien County, Michigan is 53.02 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.43 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for sunflower seed in Berrien County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $2.08 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $2.08 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $161.29 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $44.08 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2470, PLC is expected to pay $2.08 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Berrien County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Berrien County, Michigan is 1,720.36 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2512 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

An estimate, not a USDA determination. Source: FSA ARC/PLC program data. Find your county office.

Related: All Michigan counties · ARC or PLC calculator and method · Berrien County in the Farmland Atlas

Printed from https://agsist.com/arc-plc/michigan/berrien-county