What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.
Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?
Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.
Your main crops
Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet
Corn
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $5 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: ARC-CO
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: leans ARC-CO
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: leans ARC-CO
Soybeans
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
2027: ARC-CO
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
2027: ARC-CO
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
2027: ARC-CO
Wheat
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $5 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Wheat borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Wheat borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $2 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Wheat borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Smaller crops here
Each has under 100 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).
Oats
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $16 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $16 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $16 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Barley
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $12 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $11 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $11 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Sorghum
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $17 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $15 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $13 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Sunflower seed
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on sunflower seed for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($0.2470).
PLC only pays if sunflower seed averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on sunflower seed for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($0.2470).
PLC only pays if sunflower seed averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on sunflower seed for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($0.2470).
PLC only pays if sunflower seed averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Deadlines
Dec 112026 signup ends Dec 11, 2026.
Nov 2 to Mar 152027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
Skip itDo nothing for 2026 and that farm gets no 2026 payment.
SignEvery owner and operator on the farm signs.
BringBring the farm’s FSA-156EZ. It lists the base acres and PLC yields.
2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Nelson County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves.
Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: corn $4.70, soybeans $12.00, wheat $6.30, oats $3.35, barley $5.70, sorghum $4.50; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: sunflower seed $0.2470). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average
price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, oats, barley, sorghum, sunflower seed have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.
Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.
2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, oats, barley: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sorghum, sunflower seed wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (corn 133.4 bu; soybeans 43.0 bu; wheat 51.0 bu; oats 40.3 bu; barley 41.3 bu; sorghum 53.2 bu; sunflower seed 18.0 lb) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the
county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it.Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error
(2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in
at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop
Practice
Year
PLC
ARC-CO
Answer
Corn
All practices
2026
$0.95
$5.40
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
All practices
2027
$10.36
$37.95
Leans ARC-CO
Soybeans
All practices
2026
$0
$0
Neither pays
Soybeans
All practices
2027
$3.47
$22.65
ARC-CO
Wheat
All practices
2026
$9.40
$12.96
Leans ARC-CO
Wheat
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Oats
All practices
2026
$0
$15.55
Leans ARC-CO
Oats
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Barley
All practices
2026
$2.87
$14.21
Leans ARC-CO
Barley
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Sorghum
All practices
2026
$11.33
$26.50
Leans ARC-CO
Sorghum
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Sunflower seed
All practices
2026
$0.02
$0
Neither pays
Sunflower seed
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
Corn 2026 in Nelson County: Leans ARC-CO
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.45 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.95 PLC vs $5.40 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $226.78 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $96.43 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.95 and ARC-CO $5.40 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $27.59 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $10.36 PLC vs $37.95 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 133.4 bu (program year 2025) and the official 187.96 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 133.4 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)187.96 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$945.44/ac
Guarantee (90%)$850.89/ac
Max payment (12%)$113.45/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$96.43
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 189.61 · 2021: 199.82 · 2022: 174.46 · 2023: 209.64 (dropped) · 2024: 153.9 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 187.96 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 192.5 bu, reaching its cap below 166.8 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 187.96 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 112.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 131.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 150.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 169.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 188.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
173.40
$3.70
185.97
none
2022
172.27
$3.70
163.38
none
2023
185.64
$3.98
201.33
none
2024
180.72
$4.85
148.36
$87.65
2025
183.95
$5.03
136.58
$111.03
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Soybeans 2026 in Nelson County: Neither expected to pay
All practices, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $142.18 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $67.40 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Pick ARC-CO (expected $3.47 PLC vs $22.65 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 43.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 54.30 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 43.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)54.30 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$660.83/ac
Guarantee (90%)$594.75/ac
Max payment (12%)$79.30/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$67.40
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 54.88 · 2021: 58.69 (dropped) · 2022: 55.55 · 2023: 52.43 (dropped) · 2024: 52.46 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 54.30 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 55.5 bu, reaching its cap below 48.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 54.30 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 32.6 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70% 38.0 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80% 43.4 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90% 48.9 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100% 54.3 bu
PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.25 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
52.36
$8.95
55.54
none
2022
51.94
$9.12
53.03
none
2023
53.70
$9.57
50.54
none
2024
53.37
$11.12
51.20
none
2025
53.66
$12.17
39.90
$78.36
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Wheat 2026 in Nelson County: Leans ARC-CO
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.57 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $9.40 PLC vs $12.96 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $114.01 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $60.45 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $9.40 and ARC-CO $12.96 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 51.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 84.90 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 51.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)84.90 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$592.60/ac
Guarantee (90%)$533.34/ac
Max payment (12%)$71.11/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$60.45
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 50.57 (dropped) · 2021: 94.08 (dropped) · 2022: 74.92 · 2023: 93.13 · 2024: 86.65 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 84.90 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 84.0 bu, reaching its cap below 72.8 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 84.90 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 50.9 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70% 59.4 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80% 67.9 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90% 76.4 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.66. Both pay the same at $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100% 84.9 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
71.81
$5.50
92.33
none
2022
67.34
$5.50
73.52
none
2023
67.72
$5.50
92.08
none
2024
68.25
$6.21
85.95
none
2025
79.84
$6.98
81.15
$66.87
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $15.55 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $15.55 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $29.12 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $30.22 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $15.55 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 40.3 bu (program year 2025) and the official 75.20 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 40.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)75.20 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$296.29/ac
Guarantee (90%)$266.66/ac
Max payment (12%)$35.55/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$30.22
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 75.2 (dropped) · 2021: 75.2 · 2022: 75.2 · 2023: 75.2 · 2024: 92.68 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 75.20 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 87.4 bu, reaching its cap below 75.8 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 75.20 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 45.1 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70% 52.6 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80% 60.2 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90% 67.7 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100% 75.2 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
71.07
$2.55
49.00
none
2022
73.47
$2.67
63.00
none
2023
75.20
$2.75
69.66
none
2024
75.20
$3.38
92.68
none
2025
75.20
$3.84
85.94
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $11.34 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $2.87 PLC vs $14.21 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $99.35 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $50.07 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $2.87 and ARC-CO $14.21 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 41.3 bu (program year 2025) and the official 76.35 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 41.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)76.35 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.43
Benchmark revenue$490.93/ac
Guarantee (90%)$441.84/ac
Max payment (12%)$58.91/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$50.07
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 94.54 (dropped) · 2021: 68 (dropped) · 2022: 80 · 2023: 80.25 · 2024: 68.8 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 76.35 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 79.2 bu, reaching its cap below 68.6 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 76.35 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 45.8 bu
PLC pays more at $4.29 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.30 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
70% 53.4 bu
PLC pays more at $4.47 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.48 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
80% 61.1 bu
PLC pays more at $4.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.62 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
90% 68.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.72 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.73 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
100% 76.4 bu
PLC pays more at $4.80 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.81 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
76.33
$4.95
68.00
none
2022
76.33
$4.95
80.00
none
2023
73.00
$4.95
80.25
none
2024
77.33
$5.07
68.80
none
2025
76.08
$6.10
85.42
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $15.18 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $11.33 PLC vs $26.50 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $101.75 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $50.72 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $11.33 and ARC-CO $26.50 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 53.2 bu (program year 2025) and the official 93.83 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 53.2 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)93.83 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$497.30/ac
Guarantee (90%)$447.57/ac
Max payment (12%)$59.68/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$50.72
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 94 · 2021: 75.2 (dropped) · 2022: 92.15 · 2023: 95.97 (dropped) · 2024: 95.34 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 93.83 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 95.8 bu, reaching its cap below 83.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 93.83 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 56.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.62 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70% 65.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80% 75.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90% 84.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100% 93.8 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
92.12
$3.95
67.62
none
2022
92.45
$3.95
92.15
none
2023
86.19
$4.31
95.97
none
2024
86.90
$5.01
95.34
none
2025
93.17
$5.30
89.14
$59.26
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Sunflower seed 2026 in Nelson County: Neither expected to pay
All practices, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0.02 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $1.94 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $33.99 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2470, PLC is expected to pay $0.02 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 18.0 lb (program year 2025) and the official 1,326.59 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled sunflower seed base in this county: 18.0 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)1,326.59 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.2512
Benchmark revenue$333.24/ac
Guarantee (90%)$299.92/ac
Max payment (12%)$39.99/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$33.99
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1335.37 · 2021: 1350.64 · 2022: 1293.75 · 2023: 1575 (dropped) · 2024: 1238.4 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,326.59 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 1,262.8 lb, reaching its cap below 1,094.4 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,326.59 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 796.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1872 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1873 to $0.2089. PLC pays more from $0.2090 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70% 928.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1944 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1945 to $0.1994. PLC pays more from $0.1995 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80% 1,061.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90% 1,193.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100% 1,326.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
1,496.27
$0.2015
1350.64
none
2022
1,482.94
$0.2015
1293.75
none
2023
1,428.82
$0.2053
1575.00
none
2024
1,382.34
$0.2308
1208.89
none
2025
1,386.94
$0.2510
1643.00
none
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
Questions about Nelson County
Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Nelson County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.45 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.95 PLC vs $5.40 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $226.78 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $96.43 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.95 and ARC-CO $5.40 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Nelson County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Nelson County, Kentucky is 187.96 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Nelson County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $142.18 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $67.40 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Nelson County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Nelson County, Kentucky is 54.30 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Nelson County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.57 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $9.40 PLC vs $12.96 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $114.01 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $60.45 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $9.40 and ARC-CO $12.96 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Nelson County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Nelson County, Kentucky is 84.90 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for oats in Nelson County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $15.55 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $15.55 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $29.12 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $30.22 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $15.55 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Nelson County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Nelson County, Kentucky is 75.20 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for barley in Nelson County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $11.34 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $2.87 PLC vs $14.21 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $99.35 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $50.07 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $2.87 and ARC-CO $14.21 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for barley in Nelson County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for barley in Nelson County, Kentucky is 76.35 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.43 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for sorghum in Nelson County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $15.18 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $11.33 PLC vs $26.50 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $101.75 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $50.72 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $11.33 and ARC-CO $26.50 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Nelson County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Nelson County, Kentucky is 93.83 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for sunflower seed in Nelson County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Neither expected to pay (expected $0.02 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $1.94 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $33.99 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2470, PLC is expected to pay $0.02 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Nelson County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Nelson County, Kentucky is 1,326.59 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2512 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.