What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.
Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?
Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.
Your main crops
Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet
Corn · non-irrigated
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $5 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: leans ARC-CO
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $5 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: leans ARC-CO
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $5 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: leans ARC-CO
Soybeans · non-irrigated
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: neither pays. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: leans ARC-CO
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: neither pays. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: leans ARC-CO
Neither expected to payClose
Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).
PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: neither pays. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: leans ARC-CO
Wheat · non-irrigated
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Wheat borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: either one. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
Irrigated ground: either one. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Smaller crops here
Each has under 1,700 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).
Sorghum
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $22 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $19 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $17 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Sunflower seed
Either oneClose
They come out about $1 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if sunflower seed averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Either oneClose
They come out about $1 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if sunflower seed averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Either oneClose
They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if sunflower seed averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Oats
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $16 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $16 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $16 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Deadlines
Dec 112026 signup ends Dec 11, 2026.
Nov 2 to Mar 152027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
Skip itDo nothing for 2026 and that farm gets no 2026 payment.
SignEvery owner and operator on the farm signs.
BringBring the farm’s FSA-156EZ. It lists the base acres and PLC yields.
2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Posey County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves.
Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: corn $4.70, soybeans $12.00, wheat $6.30, sorghum $4.50, oats $3.35; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: sunflower seed $0.2470). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average
price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, sorghum, sunflower seed, oats have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.
Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.
2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, oats: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sorghum, sunflower seed wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (corn 153.6 bu; soybeans 44.9 bu; wheat 63.7 bu; sorghum 82.0 bu; sunflower seed 1,023.0 lb; oats 46.2 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the
county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it.Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error
(2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in
at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop
Practice
Year
PLC
ARC-CO
Answer
Corn
Non-irrigated
2026
$1.09
$6.18
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
Non-irrigated
2027
$11.93
$28.82
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
Irrigated
2026
$1.09
$6.49
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
Irrigated
2027
$11.93
$33.50
Leans ARC-CO
Soybeans
Non-irrigated
2026
$0
$0
Neither pays
Soybeans
Non-irrigated
2027
$3.63
$14.53
Leans ARC-CO
Soybeans
Irrigated
2026
$0
$0
Neither pays
Soybeans
Irrigated
2027
$3.63
$8.91
Leans ARC-CO
Wheat
Non-irrigated
2026
$11.73
$13.67
Either one
Wheat
Non-irrigated
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Wheat
Irrigated
2026
$11.73
$13.38
Either one
Wheat
Irrigated
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Sorghum
All practices
2026
$17.46
$36.72
Leans ARC-CO
Sorghum
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Sunflower seed
All practices
2026
$1.42
$0
Either one
Sunflower seed
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Oats
All practices
2026
$0
$15.78
Leans ARC-CO
Oats
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
Corn 2026 in Posey County: Leans ARC-CO
Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $5.09 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $1.09 PLC vs $6.18 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $261.12 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $110.36 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $1.09 and ARC-CO $6.18 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $16.89 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $11.93 PLC vs $28.82 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 153.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 215.11 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $5.39 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $1.09 PLC vs $6.49 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $261.12 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $115.78 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $1.09 and ARC-CO $6.49 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $21.57 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $11.93 PLC vs $33.50 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 153.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 225.66 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 153.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)225.66 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$1,135.07/ac
Guarantee (90%)$1,021.56/ac
Max payment (12%)$136.21/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$115.78
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 222.22 · 2021: 245.77 (dropped) · 2022: 213.51 (dropped) · 2023: 221.36 · 2024: 233.39 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 225.66 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 231.1 bu, reaching its cap below 200.3 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 225.66 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 135.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 158.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 180.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 203.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 225.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
FSA history, irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
176.78
$3.70
236.02
none
2022
194.08
$3.70
205.71
none
2023
211.77
$3.98
215.51
none
2024
210.44
$4.85
229.49
none
2025
216.98
$5.03
203.10
$130.97
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)215.11 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$1,082.00/ac
Guarantee (90%)$973.80/ac
Max payment (12%)$129.84/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$110.36
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 216.08 · 2021: 226.94 (dropped) · 2022: 209.8 · 2023: 208.59 (dropped) · 2024: 219.44 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 215.11 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 220.3 bu, reaching its cap below 190.9 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 215.11 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 129.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 150.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 172.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 193.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 215.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
FSA history, non-irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
192.04
$3.70
217.19
none
2022
195.26
$3.70
202.00
none
2023
208.22
$3.98
202.74
none
2024
206.73
$4.85
215.54
none
2025
209.41
$5.03
186.89
$126.40
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Soybeans 2026 in Posey County: Neither expected to pay
Non-irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $148.46 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $82.36 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $10.91 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $3.63 PLC vs $14.53 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 44.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 66.35 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $148.46 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $87.34 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $5.28 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $3.63 PLC vs $8.91 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 44.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 70.36 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 44.9 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)70.36 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$856.28/ac
Guarantee (90%)$770.65/ac
Max payment (12%)$102.75/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$87.34
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 76.39 (dropped) · 2021: 70 · 2022: 65.64 (dropped) · 2023: 72.31 · 2024: 68.76 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 70.36 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 72.0 bu, reaching its cap below 62.4 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 70.36 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 42.2 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70% 49.3 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80% 56.3 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90% 63.3 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100% 70.4 bu
PLC pays more at $9.25 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.26 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
FSA history, irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
60.65
$8.95
66.70
none
2022
64.28
$9.12
63.00
none
2023
66.95
$9.57
70.33
none
2024
65.69
$11.12
67.44
none
2025
68.66
$12.17
62.84
$92.21
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)66.35 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$807.48/ac
Guarantee (90%)$726.73/ac
Max payment (12%)$96.90/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$82.36
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 68.49 · 2021: 70.43 (dropped) · 2022: 63.12 (dropped) · 2023: 66.58 · 2024: 63.99 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 66.35 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 67.9 bu, reaching its cap below 58.8 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 66.35 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 39.8 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70% 46.4 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80% 53.1 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90% 59.7 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100% 66.4 bu
PLC pays more at $9.25 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.26 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
FSA history, non-irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
57.50
$8.95
67.13
none
2022
60.51
$9.12
60.48
none
2023
63.73
$9.57
64.60
none
2024
62.98
$11.12
62.67
none
2025
65.40
$12.17
60.40
$82.13
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Wheat 2026 in Posey County: Close, either one
Non-irrigated, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.94 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $11.73 PLC vs $13.67 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $142.40 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $63.75 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $11.73 and ARC-CO $13.67 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 63.7 bu (program year 2025) and the official 89.54 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.65 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $11.73 PLC vs $13.38 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $142.40 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $62.40 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $11.73 and ARC-CO $13.38 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 63.7 bu (program year 2025) and the official 87.65 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 63.7 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)87.65 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$611.80/ac
Guarantee (90%)$550.62/ac
Max payment (12%)$73.42/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$62.40
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 75.71 (dropped) · 2021: 90.86 · 2022: 84.14 · 2023: 97.54 (dropped) · 2024: 87.96 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 87.65 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 86.7 bu, reaching its cap below 75.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 87.65 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 52.6 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70% 61.4 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80% 70.1 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.00. Both pay the same at $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90% 78.9 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.66. Both pay the same at $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100% 87.7 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
FSA history, irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
71.25
$5.50
87.36
none
2022
73.27
$5.50
81.34
none
2023
75.07
$5.50
95.44
none
2024
73.56
$6.21
86.56
none
2025
82.99
$6.98
87.33
$69.51
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)89.54 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$624.99/ac
Guarantee (90%)$562.49/ac
Max payment (12%)$75.00/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$63.75
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 76.84 · 2021: 96.83 · 2022: 74.98 (dropped) · 2023: 101.76 (dropped) · 2024: 94.95 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 89.54 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 88.6 bu, reaching its cap below 76.8 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 89.54 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 53.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70% 62.7 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80% 71.6 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90% 80.6 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.66. PLC pays more from $5.67 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100% 89.5 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
FSA history, non-irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
83.75
$5.50
93.33
none
2022
83.21
$5.50
72.18
none
2023
83.55
$5.50
99.66
none
2024
77.62
$6.21
93.55
none
2025
84.46
$6.98
101.02
$19.42
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $19.26 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $17.46 PLC vs $36.72 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $156.83 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $70.28 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $17.46 and ARC-CO $36.72 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 82.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 130.00 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 82.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)130.00 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$689.00/ac
Guarantee (90%)$620.10/ac
Max payment (12%)$82.68/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$70.28
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 138 (dropped) · 2021: 138 · 2022: 138 · 2023: 114 (dropped) · 2024: 114 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 130.00 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 132.8 bu, reaching its cap below 115.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 130.00 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 78.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.60 or lower. Both pay the same at $3.61. ARC-CO pays more from $3.62 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70% 91.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80% 104.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90% 117.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100% 130.0 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
126.00
$3.95
138.00
none
2022
130.00
$3.95
138.00
none
2023
134.00
$4.31
114.00
none
2024
138.00
$5.01
114.00
$69.14
2025
134.00
$5.30
114.00
$85.22
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Sunflower seed 2026 in Posey County: Close, either one
All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.42 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $1.42 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $110.00 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $37.24 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2470, PLC is expected to pay $1.42 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 1,023.0 lb (program year 2025) and the official 1,453.33 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled sunflower seed base in this county: 1,023.0 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)1,453.33 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.2512
Benchmark revenue$365.08/ac
Guarantee (90%)$328.57/ac
Max payment (12%)$43.81/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$37.24
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1530 (dropped) · 2021: 1530 · 2022: 1530 · 2023: 1300 (dropped) · 2024: 1300 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,453.33 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 1,383.4 lb, reaching its cap below 1,199.0 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,453.33 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 872.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1872 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1873 to $0.2089. PLC pays more from $0.2090 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70% 1,017.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1944 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1945 to $0.1994. PLC pays more from $0.1995 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80% 1,162.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90% 1,308.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100% 1,453.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
1,456.67
$0.2015
1530.00
none
2022
1,493.33
$0.2015
1530.00
none
2023
1,530.00
$0.2053
1300.00
none
2024
1,530.00
$0.2308
1300.00
none
2025
1,530.00
$0.2510
1300.00
$31.03
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $15.78 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $15.78 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $33.38 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $30.68 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $15.78 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 46.2 bu (program year 2025) and the official 76.33 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 46.2 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)76.33 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$300.74/ac
Guarantee (90%)$270.67/ac
Max payment (12%)$36.09/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$30.68
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 63 (dropped) · 2021: 96 (dropped) · 2022: 84 · 2023: 75 · 2024: 70 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 76.33 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 88.7 bu, reaching its cap below 76.9 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 76.33 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 45.8 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70% 53.4 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80% 61.1 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90% 68.7 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100% 76.3 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
94.67
$2.55
96.00
none
2022
94.67
$2.67
84.00
none
2023
95.33
$2.75
75.00
none
2024
92.00
$3.38
70.00
$31.10
2025
85.00
$3.84
70.00
$39.17
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
Questions about Posey County
Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Posey County for 2026?
For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $5.09 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $1.09 PLC vs $6.18 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $261.12 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $110.36 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $1.09 and ARC-CO $6.18 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Posey County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Posey County, Indiana is 225.66 bu (irrigated); 215.11 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Posey County for 2026?
For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $148.46 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $82.36 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Posey County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Posey County, Indiana is 70.36 bu (irrigated); 66.35 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Posey County for 2026?
For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Close, either one: about $1.94 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $11.73 PLC vs $13.67 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $142.40 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $63.75 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $11.73 and ARC-CO $13.67 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Posey County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Posey County, Indiana is 87.65 bu (irrigated); 89.54 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for sorghum in Posey County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $19.26 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $17.46 PLC vs $36.72 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $156.83 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $70.28 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $17.46 and ARC-CO $36.72 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Posey County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Posey County, Indiana is 130.00 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for sunflower seed in Posey County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $1.42 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $1.42 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $110.00 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $37.24 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2470, PLC is expected to pay $1.42 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Posey County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Posey County, Indiana is 1,453.33 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2512 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for oats in Posey County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $15.78 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $15.78 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $33.38 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $30.68 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $15.78 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Posey County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Posey County, Indiana is 76.33 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.