Lawrence County, Illinois

ARC or PLC: the short answer for Lawrence County, Illinois

By Sigurd Lindquist, a Certified Crop Adviser (CCA).

What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.

Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?

Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.

Your main crops

Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet

Corn · non-irrigated

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $5 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.

PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.

Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: leans ARC-CO

Soybeans · non-irrigated

Neither expected to payClose

Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).

PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.

Irrigated ground: neither pays. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: close, either one

Wheat · non-irrigated

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $3 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Wheat borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.

Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Smaller crops here

Each has under 400 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).

Sorghum

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $13 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Sunflower seed

Either oneClose

They come out about $1 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.

PLC only pays if sunflower seed averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Oats

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $16 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.

PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Deadlines

Counter sheet for the FSA office Share this county

Show the math

2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Lawrence County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves. Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: corn $4.70, soybeans $12.00, wheat $6.30, sorghum $4.50, oats $3.35; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: sunflower seed $0.2470). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, sorghum, sunflower seed, oats have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.

Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.

2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, oats: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sorghum, sunflower seed wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.

Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (corn 128.7 bu; soybeans 40.1 bu; wheat 50.8 bu; sorghum 65.9 bu; sunflower seed 967.0 lb; oats 44.2 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.

How we call it. Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error (2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.

Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
CropPracticeYearPLCARC-COAnswer
CornNon-irrigated2026$0.92$5.53Leans ARC-CO
CornNon-irrigated2027$9.99$22.67Leans ARC-CO
CornIrrigated2026$0.92$6.27Leans ARC-CO
CornIrrigated2027$9.99$20.39Leans ARC-CO
SoybeansNon-irrigated2026$0$0Neither pays
SoybeansNon-irrigated2027$3.24$10.57Either one
SoybeansIrrigated2026$0$0Neither pays
SoybeansIrrigated2027$3.24$14.73Leans ARC-CO
WheatNon-irrigated2026$9.36$12.41Leans ARC-CO
WheatNon-irrigated2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet
WheatIrrigated2026$9.36$13.66Leans ARC-CO
WheatIrrigated2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet
SorghumAll practices2026$14.03$26.84Leans ARC-CO
SorghumAll practices2027nonenoneWait for USDA
Sunflower seedAll practices2026$1.34$0Either one
Sunflower seedAll practices2027nonenoneWait for USDA
OatsAll practices2026$0$15.51Leans ARC-CO
OatsAll practices2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet

Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.

Corn 2026 in Lawrence County: Leans ARC-CO

Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.61 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.92 PLC vs $5.53 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $218.79 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $98.60 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.92 and ARC-CO $5.53 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $12.67 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $9.99 PLC vs $22.67 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 128.7 bu (program year 2025) and the official 192.18 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $5.36 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.92 PLC vs $6.27 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $218.79 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $111.97 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.92 and ARC-CO $6.27 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $10.40 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $9.99 PLC vs $20.39 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 128.7 bu (program year 2025) and the official 218.24 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 128.7 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)218.24 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$1,097.75/ac
Guarantee (90%)$987.97/ac
Max payment (12%)$131.73/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$111.97

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 219.7 · 2021: 245.37 (dropped) · 2022: 208.9 · 2023: 226.12 · 2024: 207.48 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 218.24 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 223.5 bu, reaching its cap below 193.7 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 218.24 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
130.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70%
152.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80%
174.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90%
196.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100%
218.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
2021204.13$3.70235.62none
2022208.09$3.70201.10none
2023214.36$3.98220.27none
2024208.75$4.85203.58$7.52
2025216.22$5.03190.73$130.51

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)192.18 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$966.67/ac
Guarantee (90%)$870.00/ac
Max payment (12%)$116.00/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$98.60

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 184.4 · 2021: 206.65 (dropped) · 2022: 196.43 · 2023: 195.7 · 2024: 182.78 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 192.18 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 196.8 bu, reaching its cap below 170.6 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 192.18 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
115.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70%
134.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80%
153.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90%
173.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100%
192.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
2021162.50$3.70197.15none
2022167.31$3.70188.83none
2023173.13$3.98190.00none
2024181.45$4.85178.98none
2025190.14$5.03160.70$114.77

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Soybeans 2026 in Lawrence County: Neither expected to pay

Non-irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $132.59 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $71.82 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Close, either one: about $7.33 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $3.24 PLC vs $10.57 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 2). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 40.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 57.86 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $132.59 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $78.53 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $11.49 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $3.24 PLC vs $14.73 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 40.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 63.26 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 40.1 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)63.26 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$769.87/ac
Guarantee (90%)$692.89/ac
Max payment (12%)$92.38/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$78.53

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 68.47 (dropped) · 2021: 68.32 · 2022: 59.08 (dropped) · 2023: 61.59 · 2024: 59.88 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 63.26 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 64.7 bu, reaching its cap below 56.1 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 63.26 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
38.0 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70%
44.3 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80%
50.6 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90%
56.9 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100%
63.3 bu
PLC pays more at $9.25 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.26 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202158.68$8.9565.67none
202260.12$9.1256.96none
202362.90$9.5760.00none
202462.17$11.1258.82$6.34
202562.60$12.1761.02$44.95

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)57.86 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$704.16/ac
Guarantee (90%)$633.74/ac
Max payment (12%)$84.50/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$71.82

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 57.81 · 2021: 61.92 (dropped) · 2022: 53.9 · 2023: 61.86 · 2024: 53.5 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 57.86 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 59.2 bu, reaching its cap below 51.3 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 57.86 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
34.7 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70%
40.5 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80%
46.3 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90%
52.1 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100%
57.9 bu
PLC pays more at $9.25 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.26 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202152.38$8.9559.27none
202254.57$9.1251.78none
202355.16$9.5760.27none
202455.09$11.1252.44$2.44
202557.33$12.1750.72$83.73

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Wheat 2026 in Lawrence County: Leans ARC-CO

Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.05 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $9.36 PLC vs $12.41 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $113.56 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $57.85 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $9.36 and ARC-CO $12.41 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 50.8 bu (program year 2025) and the official 81.26 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.30 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $9.36 PLC vs $13.66 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $113.56 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $63.70 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $9.36 and ARC-CO $13.66 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 50.8 bu (program year 2025) and the official 89.47 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 50.8 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)89.47 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$624.50/ac
Guarantee (90%)$562.05/ac
Max payment (12%)$74.94/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$63.70

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 71.11 (dropped) · 2021: 93.59 (dropped) · 2022: 85.72 · 2023: 91.85 · 2024: 90.84 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 89.47 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 88.5 bu, reaching its cap below 76.7 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 89.47 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
53.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70%
62.6 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80%
71.6 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.00. Both pay the same at $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90%
80.5 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100%
89.5 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202175.42$5.5090.44none
202275.77$5.5083.20none
202376.39$5.5089.96none
202478.79$6.2189.58none
202586.40$6.98104.50$13.99

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)81.26 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$567.19/ac
Guarantee (90%)$510.48/ac
Max payment (12%)$68.06/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$57.85

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 64.13 (dropped) · 2021: 86.68 · 2022: 75.9 · 2023: 88.5 (dropped) · 2024: 81.19 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 81.26 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 80.4 bu, reaching its cap below 69.7 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 81.26 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
48.8 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70%
56.9 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80%
65.0 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90%
73.1 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100%
81.3 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202169.52$5.5083.63none
202268.90$5.5073.46none
202370.85$5.5086.67none
202468.79$6.2179.97none
202576.95$6.9886.98$43.28

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Sorghum 2026 in Lawrence County: Leans ARC-CO

All sorghum counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $12.81 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $14.03 PLC vs $26.84 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $126.03 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $51.37 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $14.03 and ARC-CO $26.84 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 65.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 95.03 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 65.9 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)95.03 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$503.66/ac
Guarantee (90%)$453.29/ac
Max payment (12%)$60.44/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$51.37

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 92.2 · 2021: 103 · 2022: 89.9 · 2023: 107.8 (dropped) · 2024: 87.3 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 95.03 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 97.1 bu, reaching its cap below 84.1 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 95.03 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
57.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.60 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.61 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70%
66.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80%
76.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90%
85.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100%
95.0 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202181.19$3.95103.00none
202287.39$3.9589.90none
202396.07$4.31107.80none
202492.03$5.0187.30$41.21
202595.03$5.3089.70$60.44

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Sunflower seed 2026 in Lawrence County: Close, either one

All sunflower seed counties.

All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.34 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $1.34 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $103.98 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $48.86 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2470, PLC is expected to pay $1.34 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 967.0 lb (program year 2025) and the official 1,907.00 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled sunflower seed base in this county: 967.0 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)1,907.00 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.2512
Benchmark revenue$479.04/ac
Guarantee (90%)$431.13/ac
Max payment (12%)$57.48/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$48.86

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1817 (dropped) · 2021: 1907 · 2022: 1907 · 2023: 1907 · 2024: 2007 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,907.00 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 1,815.3 lb, reaching its cap below 1,573.3 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,907.00 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
1,144.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1872 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1873 to $0.2089. PLC pays more from $0.2090 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70%
1,334.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1944 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1945 to $0.1994. PLC pays more from $0.1995 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80%
1,525.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90%
1,716.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100%
1,907.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
20211,517.67$0.20151907.00none
20231,700.00$0.20531907.00none
20241,808.00$0.23082007.00none
20251,877.00$0.25102023.00none

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Oats 2026 in Lawrence County: Leans ARC-CO

All oats counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $15.51 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $15.51 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $31.93 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $30.14 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $15.51 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 44.2 bu (program year 2025) and the official 75.00 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 44.2 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)75.00 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$295.50/ac
Guarantee (90%)$265.95/ac
Max payment (12%)$35.46/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$30.14

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 58.4 (dropped) · 2021: 73 · 2022: 76 (dropped) · 2023: 76 · 2024: 76 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 75.00 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 87.2 bu, reaching its cap below 75.6 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 75.00 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
45.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70%
52.5 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80%
60.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90%
67.5 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100%
75.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202172.33$2.5573.00none
202267.33$2.6776.00none
202371.00$2.7576.00none
202471.00$3.3876.00none
202571.33$3.8476.00$1.04

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.

Run every number for your farm

Run your farm’s numbers

Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.

From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.

On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.

Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.

County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.

USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.

Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.

Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.

Questions about Lawrence County

Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Lawrence County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.61 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.92 PLC vs $5.53 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $218.79 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $98.60 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.92 and ARC-CO $5.53 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Lawrence County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Lawrence County, Illinois is 218.24 bu (irrigated); 192.18 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Lawrence County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $132.59 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $71.82 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Lawrence County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Lawrence County, Illinois is 63.26 bu (irrigated); 57.86 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Lawrence County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.05 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $9.36 PLC vs $12.41 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $113.56 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $57.85 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $9.36 and ARC-CO $12.41 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Lawrence County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Lawrence County, Illinois is 89.47 bu (irrigated); 81.26 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for sorghum in Lawrence County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $12.81 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $14.03 PLC vs $26.84 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $126.03 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $51.37 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $14.03 and ARC-CO $26.84 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Lawrence County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Lawrence County, Illinois is 95.03 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for sunflower seed in Lawrence County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $1.34 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $1.34 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $103.98 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $48.86 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2470, PLC is expected to pay $1.34 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Lawrence County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Lawrence County, Illinois is 1,907.00 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2512 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for oats in Lawrence County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $15.51 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $15.51 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $31.93 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $30.14 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $15.51 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Lawrence County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Lawrence County, Illinois is 75.00 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

An estimate, not a USDA determination. Source: FSA ARC/PLC program data. Find your county office.

Related: All Illinois counties · ARC or PLC calculator and method · Lawrence County in the Farmland Atlas

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