What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.
Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?
Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.
Your main crops
Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet
Corn
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: close, either one
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: close, either one
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: close, either one
Wheat · irrigated
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $3 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Wheat borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $2 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Wheat borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out about $1 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Barley
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $15 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $14 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $14 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Smaller crops here
Each has under 100 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).
Oats
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $11 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $11 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $11 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Sunflower seed
Ask FSANo answer yet
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Ask FSANo answer yet
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Ask FSANo answer yet
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Sorghum
Ask FSANo answer yet
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Ask FSANo answer yet
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Ask FSANo answer yet
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Deadlines
Dec 112026 signup ends Dec 11, 2026.
Nov 2 to Mar 152027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
Skip itDo nothing for 2026 and that farm gets no 2026 payment.
SignEvery owner and operator on the farm signs.
BringBring the farm’s FSA-156EZ. It lists the base acres and PLC yields.
2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Larimer County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves.
Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: corn $4.70, wheat $6.30, barley $5.70, oats $3.35, sorghum $4.50; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: sunflower seed $0.2470). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average
price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, barley, oats, sunflower seed, sorghum have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.
Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.
2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, barley, oats: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sunflower seed, sorghum wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (corn 137.1 bu; wheat 37.7 bu; barley 73.4 bu; oats 45.4 bu; sunflower seed 2,229.8 lb; sorghum 48.4 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the
county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it.Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error
(2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in
at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop
Practice
Year
PLC
ARC-CO
Answer
Corn
All practices
2026
$0.98
$5.29
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
All practices
2027
$10.65
$9.56
Either one
Wheat
Non-irrigated
2026
none
none
Ask FSA
Wheat
Non-irrigated
2027
none
none
Ask FSA
Wheat
Irrigated
2026
$6.95
$9.27
Leans ARC-CO
Wheat
Irrigated
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Barley
All practices
2026
$5.10
$19.48
Leans ARC-CO
Barley
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Oats
All practices
2026
$0
$11.06
Leans ARC-CO
Oats
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Sunflower seed
All practices
2026
none
none
Ask FSA
Sunflower seed
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Sorghum
All practices
2026
none
none
Ask FSA
Sorghum
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
FSA lists a benchmark here but no enrolled base for safflower.
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
Corn 2026 in Larimer County: Leans ARC-CO
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.31 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.98 PLC vs $5.29 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $233.07 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $94.40 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.98 and ARC-CO $5.29 per base acre.
2027: Close, either one: about $1.08 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $10.65 PLC vs $9.56 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 137.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 183.99 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 137.1 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)183.99 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$925.47/ac
Guarantee (90%)$832.92/ac
Max payment (12%)$111.06/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$94.40
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 177.25 · 2021: 201.24 (dropped) · 2022: 151.32 (dropped) · 2023: 188.57 · 2024: 186.15 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 183.99 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 188.4 bu, reaching its cap below 163.3 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 183.99 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 110.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 128.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 147.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 165.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 184.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
167.32
$3.70
198.49
none
2022
167.71
$3.70
149.12
none
2023
170.52
$3.98
186.92
none
2024
166.46
$4.85
185.05
none
2025
176.35
$5.03
177.61
$59.48
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Wheat 2026 in Larimer County: Leans ARC-CO
Non-irrigated: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (37.7 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (31.95 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.
Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $2.32 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $6.95 PLC vs $9.27 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $84.28 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $43.22 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $6.95 and ARC-CO $9.27 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 37.7 bu (program year 2025) and the official 60.71 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 37.7 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)60.71 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$423.76/ac
Guarantee (90%)$381.38/ac
Max payment (12%)$50.85/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$43.22
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 41.46 (dropped) · 2021: 79.29 · 2022: 57.87 · 2023: 44.98 · 2024: 88.26 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 60.71 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 60.1 bu, reaching its cap below 52.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 60.71 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 36.4 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70% 42.5 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80% 48.6 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.00. PLC pays more from $6.01 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90% 54.6 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100% 60.7 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
FSA history, irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
66.70
$5.50
78.64
none
2022
62.30
$5.50
57.35
none
2023
62.44
$5.50
44.59
none
2024
62.85
$6.21
88.00
none
2025
60.13
$6.98
49.93
$50.37
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)31.95 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$223.01/ac
Guarantee (90%)$200.71/ac
Max payment (12%)$26.76/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$22.75
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 32 · 2021: 30.26 · 2022: 23.6 (dropped) · 2023: 34.84 (dropped) · 2024: 33.6 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 31.95 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 31.6 bu, reaching its cap below 27.4 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 31.95 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 19.2 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70% 22.4 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80% 25.6 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.00. PLC pays more from $6.01 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90% 28.8 bu
PLC pays more at $5.42 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.43 to $5.65. Both pay the same at $5.66. PLC pays more from $5.67 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100% 32.0 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
FSA history, non-irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
29.34
$5.50
29.76
none
2022
31.25
$5.50
19.02
none
2023
29.04
$5.50
34.54
none
2024
29.10
$6.21
33.40
none
2025
32.34
$6.98
17.60
$27.09
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $14.38 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $5.10 PLC vs $19.48 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $176.56 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $68.66 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $5.10 and ARC-CO $19.48 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 73.4 bu (program year 2025) and the official 104.69 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 73.4 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)104.69 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.43
Benchmark revenue$673.16/ac
Guarantee (90%)$605.84/ac
Max payment (12%)$80.78/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$68.66
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 113.71 (dropped) · 2021: 94.07 · 2022: 71.36 (dropped) · 2023: 107.75 · 2024: 112.26 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 104.69 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 108.6 bu, reaching its cap below 94.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 104.69 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 62.8 bu
PLC pays more at $4.29 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.30 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
70% 73.3 bu
PLC pays more at $4.47 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.48 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
80% 83.8 bu
PLC pays more at $4.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.62 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
90% 94.2 bu
PLC pays more at $4.72 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.73 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
100% 104.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.80 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.81 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
102.42
$4.95
88.87
none
2022
106.31
$4.95
65.24
none
2023
106.94
$4.95
104.63
none
2024
101.19
$5.07
110.18
none
2025
102.57
$6.10
86.24
$75.08
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $11.06 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $11.06 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $32.80 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $21.50 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $11.06 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 45.4 bu (program year 2025) and the official 53.50 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 45.4 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)53.50 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$210.79/ac
Guarantee (90%)$189.71/ac
Max payment (12%)$25.29/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$21.50
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 57.5 · 2021: 53 · 2022: 50 · 2023: 62 (dropped) · 2024: 43.2 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 53.50 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 62.2 bu, reaching its cap below 53.9 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 53.50 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 32.1 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70% 37.5 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80% 42.8 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90% 48.2 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100% 53.5 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
69.67
$2.55
53.00
none
2022
62.17
$2.67
50.00
none
2023
53.50
$2.75
62.00
none
2024
51.00
$3.38
33.00
$17.24
2025
53.50
$3.84
42.49
$24.65
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Sunflower seed 2026 in Larimer County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even
All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (2,229.8 lb) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (791.87 lb), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled sunflower seed base in this county: 2,229.8 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)791.87 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.2512
Benchmark revenue$198.92/ac
Guarantee (90%)$179.03/ac
Max payment (12%)$23.87/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$20.29
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 777.6 (dropped) · 2021: 1000 (dropped) · 2022: 777.6 · 2023: 787 · 2024: 811 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 791.87 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 753.8 lb, reaching its cap below 653.3 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 791.87 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 475.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1872 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1873 to $0.2089. PLC pays more from $0.2090 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70% 554.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1944 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1945 to $0.1994. PLC pays more from $0.1995 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80% 633.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90% 712.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100% 791.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2022
1,054.96
$0.2015
548.96
$21.26
2023
1,019.33
$0.2053
787.00
$13.13
2024
935.87
$0.2308
811.00
none
2025
854.87
$0.2510
1229.37
none
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Sorghum 2026 in Larimer County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even
All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (48.4 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (39.16 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 48.4 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)39.16 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$207.55/ac
Guarantee (90%)$186.79/ac
Max payment (12%)$24.91/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$21.17
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 32.8 (dropped) · 2021: 35.67 · 2022: 32.8 · 2023: 65 (dropped) · 2024: 49 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 39.16 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 40.0 bu, reaching its cap below 34.7 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 39.16 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 23.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.60 or lower. Both pay the same at $3.61. ARC-CO pays more from $3.62 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70% 27.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80% 31.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90% 35.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100% 39.2 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
46.07
$3.95
35.67
none
2022
44.40
$3.95
31.00
none
2023
41.62
$4.31
65.00
none
2024
36.16
$5.01
49.00
none
2025
39.22
$5.30
53.14
none
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Safflower 2026 in Larimer County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1018.4 (dropped) · 2021: 1018.4 (dropped) · 2022: 1018.4 · 2023: 1018.4 · 2024: 1018.4 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,018.40 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2438/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 1,042.5 lb, reaching its cap below 903.5 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,018.40 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 611.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1883 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1884 to $0.2495. Neither pays at $0.2496 or higher.
70% 712.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1962 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1963 to $0.2495. Neither pays at $0.2496 or higher.
80% 814.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2021 or lower. Both pay the same at $0.2022. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2023 to $0.2495. Neither pays at $0.2496 or higher.
90% 916.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2068 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2069 to $0.2495. Neither pays at $0.2496 or higher.
100% 1,018.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2105 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2106 to $0.2495. Neither pays at $0.2496 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
1,055.27
$0.2038
507.72
$21.51
2022
1,036.07
$0.2038
750.00
none
2023
1,103.27
$0.2065
743.00
none
2024
1,103.27
$0.2243
818.00
$14.05
2025
1,018.40
$0.2752
788.97
$33.63
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Nothing from FSA here for soybeans. Ask the county FSA office for “the 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yield for my county, crop and practice (irrigated or non-irrigated)”, or look it up in FSA’s program data (file: ARC-CO benchmark yields and revenues, program year 2026). Then type it into the calculator.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
Questions about Larimer County
Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Larimer County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.31 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.98 PLC vs $5.29 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $233.07 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $94.40 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.98 and ARC-CO $5.29 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Larimer County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Larimer County, Colorado is 183.99 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Larimer County for 2026?
For a typical farm (irrigated): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $2.32 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $6.95 PLC vs $9.27 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $84.28 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $43.22 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $6.95 and ARC-CO $9.27 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Larimer County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Larimer County, Colorado is 60.71 bu (irrigated); 31.95 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for barley in Larimer County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $14.38 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $5.10 PLC vs $19.48 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $176.56 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $68.66 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $5.10 and ARC-CO $19.48 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for barley in Larimer County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for barley in Larimer County, Colorado is 104.69 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.43 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for oats in Larimer County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $11.06 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $11.06 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $32.80 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $21.50 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $11.06 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Larimer County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Larimer County, Colorado is 53.50 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Larimer County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Larimer County, Colorado is 791.87 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2512 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Larimer County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Larimer County, Colorado is 39.16 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for safflower in Larimer County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for safflower in Larimer County, Colorado is 1,018.40 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2773 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.