ARC vs PLC › Colorado › Denver County
ARC-CO and PLC · FSA official
Denver County, CO: ARC or PLC for 2026 and 2027
FSA’s official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields for Denver County, Colorado, with the math behind them and what they mean for ARC-CO and PLC. FSA has not posted 2027 benchmarks; the 2027 benchmark shifts the window one year.
Quick answer for 2026, for a typical farm in this county. Run your own numbers; your PLC yield and base can change it.
- Corn: leans ARC-CO (est. $0.70 PLC vs $7.31 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC more in 1 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3).
- Wheat: PLC expected to pay more (est. $15.40 PLC vs $8.53 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC more in 5 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1).
Typical farm = FSA’s county average PLC yield and FSA’s official benchmark. Prices: USDA’s October WASDE projection, spread by how far the season-average price ended from October futures in each past year; county yields from the same past years. How this is figured.
Corn 2026 in Denver County: leans ARC-CO
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $6.61 more per base acre, but the gap is within the normal swing; either is a defensible choice (expected $0.70 PLC vs $7.31 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $144.50 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $57.63 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 3 of the 10 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.70 and ARC-CO $7.31 per base acre.
2027: Too close to call (expected $7.36 PLC vs $5.68 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0; the gap is under $3.35). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 85.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 112.32 bu benchmark. County yields from the Colorado average for this crop and practice (the county has fewer than 8 years). Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 85.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 168.86 · 2021: 142.95 · 2022: 136 · 2023: 58 · 2024: 27.2 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 112.32 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 115.0 bu, reaching its cap below 99.7 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 112.32 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 67.4 bu | PLC: $3.41 or lower ARC-CO: $3.42 to $4.52 |
| 70% 78.6 bu | PLC: $3.55 or lower ARC-CO: $3.56 to $4.52 |
| 80% 89.9 bu | PLC: $3.66 or lower ARC-CO: $3.67 to $4.52 |
| 90% 101.1 bu | PLC: $3.74 or lower ARC-CO: $3.75 to $4.52 |
| 100% 112.3 bu | PLC: $3.81 or lower ARC-CO: $3.82 to $4.52 |
Wheat 2026 in Denver County: PLC expected to pay more
All practices, 2026: Pick PLC (expected $15.40 PLC vs $8.53 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 5 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $67.07 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $24.18 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 10 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $15.40 and ARC-CO $8.53 per base acre.
2027: Pick PLC (expected $15.40 PLC vs $8.53 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 5 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 30.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 33.96 bu benchmark. County yields from the Colorado average for this crop and practice (the county has fewer than 8 years). Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 30.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 40.67 · 2021: 40.67 · 2022: 27.2 · 2023: 27.2 · 2024: 34 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 33.96 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 33.6 bu, reaching its cap below 29.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 33.96 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 20.4 bu | PLC: $4.95 or lower ARC-CO: $4.96 to $6.17 |
| 70% 23.8 bu | PLC: $5.15 or lower ARC-CO: $5.16 to $6.12 |
| 80% 27.2 bu | PLC: $5.30 or lower ARC-CO: $5.31 to $6.00 |
| 90% 30.6 bu | PLC: $5.41 or lower ARC-CO: $5.42 to $5.66 |
| 100% 34.0 bu | PLC: $6.34 or lower ARC-CO: never |
Nothing from FSA here for soybeans. Ask the county FSA office for “the 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yield for my county, crop and practice (irrigated or non-irrigated)”, or look it up in FSA’s program data (file: ARC-CO benchmark yields and revenues, program year 2026). Then type it into the calculator.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
An estimate, not a USDA determination. Source: FSA ARC/PLC program data. Find your county office.
Printed from https://agsist.com/arc-plc/colorado/denver-county