2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Snohomish County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves.
Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: barley $5.70). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average
price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Barley have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.
2027. Barley: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (barley 143.6 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the
county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it.Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error
(2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in
at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop
Practice
Year
PLC
ARC-CO
Answer
Barley
All practices
2026
none
none
Ask FSA
Barley
All practices
2027
none
none
Ask FSA
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
Barley 2026 in Snohomish County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even
All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (143.6 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (75.99 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 143.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)75.99 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.43
Benchmark revenue$488.62/ac
Guarantee (90%)$439.75/ac
Max payment (12%)$58.63/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$49.84
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 87.67 · 2021: 113.29 (dropped) · 2022: 74.3 · 2023: 59.58 (dropped) · 2024: 66 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 75.99 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 78.8 bu, reaching its cap below 68.3 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 75.99 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 45.6 bu
PLC pays more at $4.29 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.30 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
70% 53.2 bu
PLC pays more at $4.47 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.48 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
80% 60.8 bu
PLC pays more at $4.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.62 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
90% 68.4 bu
PLC pays more at $4.72 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.73 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
100% 76.0 bu
PLC pays more at $4.80 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.81 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
94.00
$4.95
113.29
none
2022
89.22
$4.95
74.30
none
2025
89.05
$6.10
46.88
$65.19
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Nothing from FSA here for corn or soybeans or wheat. Ask the county FSA office for “the 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yield for my county, crop and practice (irrigated or non-irrigated)”, or look it up in FSA’s program data (file: ARC-CO benchmark yields and revenues, program year 2026). Then type it into the calculator.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
Questions about Snohomish County
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for barley in Snohomish County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for barley in Snohomish County, Washington is 75.99 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.43 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.