ARC or PLC: the short answer for Noble County, Oklahoma

2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Noble County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves. Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: wheat $6.30, soybeans $12.00, sorghum $4.50, corn $4.70, oats $3.35, barley $5.70; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: canola $0.2450). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, sorghum, oats, barley, canola have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.

Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.

2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, oats, barley, canola: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sorghum wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.

Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (wheat 37.2 bu; soybeans 13.0 bu; sorghum 38.4 bu; corn 68.9 bu; oats 39.6 bu; barley 38.6 bu; canola 1,582.1 lb) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.

How we call it. Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error (2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.

FSA lists a benchmark here but no enrolled base for seed cotton.

Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Data updated Oct 9, 2026 Full method and back-test.

Wheat 2026 in Noble County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (37.2 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (36.87 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 37.2 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 44.78 (dropped) · 2021: 36.39 · 2022: 34.02 · 2023: 23.74 (dropped) · 2024: 40.2 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 36.87 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 36.5 bu, reaching its cap below 31.6 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 36.87 bu county yield, 2026 prices

FSA history, all practices

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Soybeans 2026 in Noble County: Neither expected to pay

Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 13.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 20.6 (dropped) · 2021: 13.6 (dropped) · 2022: 13.6 · 2023: 13.6 · 2024: 15.2 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 14.13 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 14.5 bu, reaching its cap below 12.5 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 14.13 bu county yield, 2026 prices

FSA history, all practices

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Sorghum 2026 in Noble County: Leans ARC-CO

All sorghum counties.

Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 38.4 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 59.31 (dropped) · 2021: 51.84 · 2022: 33.6 (dropped) · 2023: 36.81 · 2024: 36.4 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 41.68 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 42.6 bu, reaching its cap below 36.9 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 41.68 bu county yield, 2026 prices

FSA history, all practices

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Corn 2026 in Noble County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (68.9 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (68.15 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 68.9 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 57.09 · 2021: 103.94 (dropped) · 2022: 48.8 (dropped) · 2023: 89.75 · 2024: 57.6 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 68.15 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 69.8 bu, reaching its cap below 60.5 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 68.15 bu county yield, 2026 prices

FSA history, all practices

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Oats 2026 in Noble County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

All oats counties.

All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (39.6 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (39.18 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 39.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 39.8 (dropped) · 2021: 35 (dropped) · 2022: 39.8 · 2023: 39.6 · 2024: 38.13 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 39.18 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 45.6 bu, reaching its cap below 39.5 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 39.18 bu county yield, 2026 prices

FSA history, all practices

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Barley 2026 in Noble County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

All barley counties.

All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (38.6 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (31.04 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 38.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 29.2 · 2021: 35 (dropped) · 2022: 28.62 (dropped) · 2023: 32.04 · 2024: 31.88 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 31.04 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 32.2 bu, reaching its cap below 27.9 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 31.04 bu county yield, 2026 prices

FSA history, all practices

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Canola 2026 in Noble County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

All canola counties.

All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (1,582.1 lb) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (815.03 lb), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled canola base in this county: 1,582.1 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 895.56 · 2021: 1121.33 (dropped) · 2022: 711.2 (dropped) · 2023: 820.06 · 2024: 729.46 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 815.03 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 801.5 lb, reaching its cap below 694.6 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 815.03 lb county yield, 2026 prices

FSA history, all practices

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Seed cotton 2026 in Noble County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

FSA’s seed cotton price is its own weighted average of the upland cotton lint price and the cottonseed price. We use FSA’s seed cotton series as published and never build it from the lint price. All seed cotton counties.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1872.77 · 2021: 1560.84 · 2022: 1161.6 (dropped) · 2023: 1687.78 · 2024: 1930.18 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,707.12 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 1,577.0 lb, reaching its cap below 1,366.7 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,707.12 lb county yield, 2026 prices

FSA history, all practices

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.