Kay County, Oklahoma

ARC or PLC: the short answer for Kay County, Oklahoma

By Sigurd Lindquist, a Certified Crop Adviser (CCA).

What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.

Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?

Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.

Your main crops

Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet

Wheat · non-irrigated

Either oneClose

They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.

PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.

Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Smaller crops here

Each has under 6,900 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).

Soybeans · irrigated

Neither expected to payClose

Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).

PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.

Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.

2027: leans ARC-CO

Corn · non-irrigated

Either oneClose

They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.

PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.

Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: close, either one

Sorghum

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $9 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Oats

Ask FSANo answer yet

FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.

2027: ask your FSA office

Barley

Ask FSANo answer yet

FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.

2027: ask your FSA office

Sesame seed

Neither expected to payClose

Neither one is likely to pay on sesame seed for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($0.3800).

PLC only pays if sesame seed averages under 27.31 cents a pound for 2026.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Deadlines

Counter sheet for the FSA office Share this county

Show the math

2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Kay County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves. Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: wheat $6.30, soybeans $12.00, corn $4.70, sorghum $4.50, oats $3.35, barley $5.70; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: sesame seed $0.3800). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, sorghum, oats, barley, sesame seed have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.

Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against close, either one at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.

2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, oats, barley: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Sorghum, sesame seed wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.

Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (wheat 37.1 bu; soybeans 22.3 bu; corn 73.6 bu; sorghum 45.2 bu; oats 39.6 bu; barley 40.3 bu; sesame seed 177.0 lb) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.

How we call it. Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error (2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.

Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
CropPracticeYearPLCARC-COAnswer
WheatNon-irrigated2026$6.83$6.05Either one
WheatNon-irrigated2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet
WheatIrrigated2026$6.83$9.51Leans ARC-CO
WheatIrrigated2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet
SoybeansNon-irrigated2026nonenoneAsk FSA
SoybeansNon-irrigated2027nonenoneAsk FSA
SoybeansIrrigated2026$0$0Neither pays
SoybeansIrrigated2027$1.80$12.45Leans ARC-CO
CornNon-irrigated2026$0.52$2.36Either one
CornNon-irrigated2027$5.72$11.94Either one
CornIrrigated2026$0.52$4.87Leans ARC-CO
CornIrrigated2027$5.72$28.12Leans ARC-CO
SorghumAll practices2026$9.62$18.26Leans ARC-CO
SorghumAll practices2027nonenoneWait for USDA
OatsAll practices2026nonenoneAsk FSA
OatsAll practices2027nonenoneAsk FSA
BarleyAll practices2026nonenoneAsk FSA
BarleyAll practices2027nonenoneAsk FSA
Sesame seedAll practices2026$0$0.48Neither pays
Sesame seedAll practices2027nonenoneWait for USDA

FSA lists a benchmark here but no enrolled base for sunflower seed.

Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.

Wheat 2026 in Kay County: Close, either one

Non-irrigated, 2026: Close, either one: about $0.79 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $6.83 PLC vs $6.05 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 6 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $82.94 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $28.19 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $6.83 and ARC-CO $6.05 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 37.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 39.59 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $2.67 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $6.83 PLC vs $9.51 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 6). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $82.94 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $44.32 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $6.83 and ARC-CO $9.51 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 37.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 62.25 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 37.1 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)62.25 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$434.51/ac
Guarantee (90%)$391.05/ac
Max payment (12%)$52.14/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$44.32

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 75.89 (dropped) · 2021: 57.9 · 2022: 52.76 (dropped) · 2023: 65.95 · 2024: 62.91 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 62.25 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 61.6 bu, reaching its cap below 53.4 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 62.25 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
37.4 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70%
43.6 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80%
49.8 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.00. Both pay the same at $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90%
56.0 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100%
62.3 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202147.63$5.5057.25none
202253.66$5.5052.24none
202353.41$5.5065.56none
202453.60$6.2162.65none
202558.71$6.9857.09$49.18

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)39.59 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$276.34/ac
Guarantee (90%)$248.70/ac
Max payment (12%)$33.16/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$28.19

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 47.1 (dropped) · 2021: 41.95 · 2022: 35.25 · 2023: 23.59 (dropped) · 2024: 41.57 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 39.59 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 39.2 bu, reaching its cap below 33.9 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 39.59 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
23.8 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. PLC pays more from $6.18 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70%
27.7 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80%
31.7 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.00. PLC pays more from $6.01 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90%
35.6 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100%
39.6 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202131.24$5.5041.30none
202235.24$5.5034.73none
202336.37$5.5021.90$19.61
202435.44$6.2141.31none
202535.63$6.9837.19$29.84

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Soybeans 2026 in Kay County: Neither expected to pay

Non-irrigated: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (22.3 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (18.23 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $73.73 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $54.11 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $10.65 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $1.80 PLC vs $12.45 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 22.3 bu (program year 2025) and the official 43.59 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 22.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)43.59 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$530.49/ac
Guarantee (90%)$477.44/ac
Max payment (12%)$63.66/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$54.11

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 46.57 · 2021: 22.9 (dropped) · 2022: 38.82 · 2023: 45.38 · 2024: 53.24 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 43.59 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 44.6 bu, reaching its cap below 38.6 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 43.59 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
26.2 bu
PLC pays more at $8.28 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.29 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70%
30.5 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80%
34.9 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90%
39.2 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100%
43.6 bu
PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. Both pay the same at $9.25. ARC-CO pays more from $9.26 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202149.69$8.958.05$44.47
202248.66$9.1238.42none
202348.69$9.5745.08none
202445.14$11.1253.04none
202543.49$12.1744.32$10.98

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)18.23 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$221.86/ac
Guarantee (90%)$199.67/ac
Max payment (12%)$26.62/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$22.63

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 22.95 (dropped) · 2021: 18.1 · 2022: 18 · 2023: 17.1 (dropped) · 2024: 18.6 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 18.23 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 18.6 bu, reaching its cap below 16.2 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 18.23 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
10.9 bu
PLC pays more at $8.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.27 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70%
12.8 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. Both pay the same at $8.63. ARC-CO pays more from $8.64 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80%
14.6 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90%
16.4 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100%
18.2 bu
PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.25 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202128.15$8.9515.66$8.39
202227.26$9.124.03$24.86
202325.27$9.5711.49$24.18
202422.11$11.1210.07$24.59
202519.58$12.1725.68none

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Corn 2026 in Kay County: Close, either one

Non-irrigated, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.83 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $0.52 PLC vs $2.36 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $125.12 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $42.09 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.52 and ARC-CO $2.36 per base acre.

2027: Close, either one: about $6.22 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $5.72 PLC vs $11.94 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 73.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 82.04 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.35 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.52 PLC vs $4.87 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $125.12 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $86.95 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.52 and ARC-CO $4.87 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $22.40 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $5.72 PLC vs $28.12 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 73.6 bu (program year 2025) and the official 169.47 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 73.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)169.47 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$852.43/ac
Guarantee (90%)$767.19/ac
Max payment (12%)$102.29/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$86.95

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 146.8 · 2021: 194.02 (dropped) · 2022: 115.52 (dropped) · 2023: 177.39 · 2024: 184.23 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 169.47 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 173.6 bu, reaching its cap below 150.4 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 169.47 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
101.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70%
118.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80%
135.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90%
152.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100%
169.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
2021144.79$3.70189.62none
2022136.52$3.70103.13none
2023147.22$3.98174.75none
2024147.59$4.85182.47none
2025149.22$5.03173.76none

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)82.04 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$412.66/ac
Guarantee (90%)$371.40/ac
Max payment (12%)$49.52/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$42.09

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 72.92 · 2021: 118.72 (dropped) · 2022: 56.12 (dropped) · 2023: 110.73 · 2024: 62.46 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 82.04 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 84.0 bu, reaching its cap below 72.8 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 82.04 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
49.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70%
57.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80%
65.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90%
73.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100%
82.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202180.62$3.70114.57none
202276.37$3.7017.09$28.26
202377.03$3.98108.24none
202477.38$4.8560.53$37.53
202588.16$5.0385.25$44.46

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Sorghum 2026 in Kay County: Leans ARC-CO

All sorghum counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $8.64 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $9.62 PLC vs $18.26 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $86.45 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $34.96 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $9.62 and ARC-CO $18.26 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 45.2 bu (program year 2025) and the official 64.66 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 45.2 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)64.66 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$342.70/ac
Guarantee (90%)$308.43/ac
Max payment (12%)$41.12/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$34.96

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 84.91 (dropped) · 2021: 81.19 · 2022: 43.32 (dropped) · 2023: 63.12 · 2024: 49.66 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 64.66 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 66.0 bu, reaching its cap below 57.2 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 64.66 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
38.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.60 or lower. Both pay the same at $3.61. ARC-CO pays more from $3.62 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70%
45.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80%
51.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90%
58.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100%
64.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202154.18$3.9579.04none
202254.59$3.955.61$21.56
202362.71$4.3161.83none
202462.46$5.0148.01$31.29
202569.00$5.3067.75$43.88

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Oats 2026 in Kay County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

All oats counties.

All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (39.6 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (39.18 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 39.6 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)39.18 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$154.37/ac
Guarantee (90%)$138.93/ac
Max payment (12%)$18.52/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$15.75

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 39.8 (dropped) · 2021: 35 (dropped) · 2022: 39.8 · 2023: 39.6 · 2024: 38.13 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 39.18 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 45.6 bu, reaching its cap below 39.5 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 39.18 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
23.5 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70%
27.4 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80%
31.3 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90%
35.3 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100%
39.2 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202141.33$2.5535.00none
202241.60$2.6739.80none
202339.60$2.7539.60none
202438.87$3.3838.13none
202539.73$3.8439.73$8.97

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Barley 2026 in Kay County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

All barley counties.

All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (40.3 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (31.21 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 40.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)31.21 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.43
Benchmark revenue$200.68/ac
Guarantee (90%)$180.61/ac
Max payment (12%)$24.08/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$20.47

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 29.6 · 2021: 35 (dropped) · 2022: 28.62 (dropped) · 2023: 32.12 · 2024: 31.91 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 31.21 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 32.4 bu, reaching its cap below 28.1 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 31.21 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
18.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.29 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.30 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
70%
21.8 bu
PLC pays more at $4.47 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.48 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
80%
25.0 bu
PLC pays more at $4.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.62 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
90%
28.1 bu
PLC pays more at $4.72 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.73 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
100%
31.2 bu
PLC pays more at $4.80 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.81 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202132.00$4.9535.00none
202232.87$4.9528.62none
202332.87$4.9532.12none
202431.07$5.0731.91none
202532.24$6.1030.11$12.59

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Sesame seed 2026 in Kay County: Neither expected to pay

All sesame seed counties.

All practices, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0.48 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 2).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2731, up to $24.39 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $20.09 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.3800, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0.48 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 177.0 lb (program year 2025) and the official 492.41 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled sesame seed base in this county: 177.0 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)492.41 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4000
Benchmark revenue$196.96/ac
Guarantee (90%)$177.27/ac
Max payment (12%)$23.64/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$20.09

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 462 · 2021: 424.34 (dropped) · 2022: 593.32 (dropped) · 2023: 507 · 2024: 508.22 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 492.41 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2731/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 649.1 lb, reaching its cap below 562.5 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 492.41 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
295.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1930 or lower. Both pay the same at $0.1931. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1932 to $0.3599. Neither pays at $0.3600 or higher.
70%
344.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2045 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2046 to $0.3599. Neither pays at $0.3600 or higher.
80%
393.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2130 or lower. Both pay the same at $0.2131. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2132 to $0.3599. Neither pays at $0.3600 or higher.
90%
443.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2197 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2198 to $0.3599. Neither pays at $0.3600 or higher.
100%
492.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2250 or lower. Both pay the same at $0.2251. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2252 to $0.3599. Neither pays at $0.3600 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
2021571.87$0.3533424.34$8.26
2022574.20$0.3533593.32none
2025520.77$0.3867520.77none

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Sunflower seed 2026 in Kay County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

All sunflower seed counties.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)1,452.33 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.2512
Benchmark revenue$364.83/ac
Guarantee (90%)$328.34/ac
Max payment (12%)$43.78/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$37.21

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1435 · 2021: 1846.61 (dropped) · 2022: 1347.4 (dropped) · 2023: 1393 · 2024: 1529 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,452.33 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 1,382.5 lb, reaching its cap below 1,198.2 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,452.33 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
871.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1872 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1873 to $0.2089. PLC pays more from $0.2090 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70%
1,016.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1944 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1945 to $0.1994. PLC pays more from $0.1995 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80%
1,161.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90%
1,307.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100%
1,452.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
20211,333.67$0.20151846.61none
20221,372.00$0.20151347.40none
20231,393.00$0.20531393.00none
20241,411.13$0.23081529.00none
20251,391.80$0.25101391.80none

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.

Run every number for your farm

Run your farm’s numbers

Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.

From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.

On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.

Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.

County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.

USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.

Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.

Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.

Questions about Kay County

Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Kay County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Close, either one: about $0.79 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $6.83 PLC vs $6.05 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 6 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $82.94 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $28.19 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $6.83 and ARC-CO $6.05 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Kay County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Kay County, Oklahoma is 62.25 bu (irrigated); 39.59 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Kay County for 2026?

For a typical farm (irrigated): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $73.73 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $54.11 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Kay County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Kay County, Oklahoma is 43.59 bu (irrigated); 18.23 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Kay County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Close, either one: about $1.83 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $0.52 PLC vs $2.36 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $125.12 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $42.09 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.52 and ARC-CO $2.36 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Kay County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Kay County, Oklahoma is 169.47 bu (irrigated); 82.04 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for sorghum in Kay County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $8.64 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $9.62 PLC vs $18.26 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $86.45 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $34.96 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $9.62 and ARC-CO $18.26 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Kay County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Kay County, Oklahoma is 64.66 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Kay County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Kay County, Oklahoma is 39.18 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for barley in Kay County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for barley in Kay County, Oklahoma is 31.21 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.43 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for sesame seed in Kay County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0.48 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 2). PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2731, up to $24.39 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $20.09 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.3800, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0.48 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sesame seed in Kay County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sesame seed in Kay County, Oklahoma is 492.41 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.4000 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Kay County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sunflower seed in Kay County, Oklahoma is 1,452.33 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2512 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

An estimate, not a USDA determination. Source: FSA ARC/PLC program data. Find your county office.

Related: All Oklahoma counties · ARC or PLC calculator and method · Kay County in the Farmland Atlas

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