ARC vs PLC › North Dakota › Grand Forks County
ARC-CO and PLC · FSA official
Grand Forks County, ND: ARC or PLC for 2026 and 2027
FSA’s official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields for Grand Forks County, North Dakota, with the math behind them and what they mean for ARC-CO and PLC. FSA has not posted 2027 benchmarks; the 2027 benchmark shifts the window one year.
Quick answer for 2026, for a typical farm in this county. Run your own numbers; your PLC yield and base can change it.
- Corn, non-irrigated: leans ARC-CO (est. $0.97 PLC vs $9.74 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3).
- Soybeans, non-irrigated: too close to call (est. $0 PLC vs $1.82 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1).
- Wheat, non-irrigated: leans PLC (est. $27.11 PLC vs $18.81 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC more in 4 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 2).
Typical farm = FSA’s county average PLC yield and FSA’s official benchmark. Prices: USDA’s October WASDE projection, spread by how far the season-average price ended from October futures in each past year; county yields from the same past years. How this is figured.
Corn 2026 in Grand Forks County: leans ARC-CO
Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $8.77 more per base acre, but the gap is within the normal swing; either is a defensible choice (expected $0.97 PLC vs $9.74 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $199.07 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $79.36 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 3 of the 10 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.97 and ARC-CO $9.74 per base acre.
2027: Too close to call (expected $10.14 PLC vs $8.26 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1; the gap is under $4.80). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 117.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 154.68 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Pick ARC-CO (expected $0.97 PLC vs $28.54 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $199.07 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $110.07 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 5 of the 10 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.97 and ARC-CO $28.54 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $9.20 more per base acre, but the gap is within the normal swing; either is a defensible choice (expected $10.14 PLC vs $19.34 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 117.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 214.54 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 117.1 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 208.47 · 2021: 235.47 · 2022: 197.12 · 2023: 209.34 · 2024: 225.8 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 214.54 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 219.7 bu, reaching its cap below 190.4 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 214.54 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 128.7 bu | PLC: $3.41 or lower ARC-CO: $3.42 to $4.52 |
| 70% 150.2 bu | PLC: $3.55 or lower ARC-CO: $3.56 to $4.52 |
| 80% 171.6 bu | PLC: $3.66 or lower ARC-CO: $3.67 to $4.52 |
| 90% 193.1 bu | PLC: $3.74 or lower ARC-CO: $3.75 to $4.52 |
| 100% 214.5 bu | PLC: $3.81 or lower ARC-CO: $3.82 to $4.52 |
FSA history, irrigated
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 191.90 | $3.70 | 222.62 | none |
| 2022 | 196.57 | $3.70 | 186.84 | none |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 147.83 · 2021: 142.77 · 2022: 159.82 · 2023: 156.38 · 2024: 170.91 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 154.68 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 158.4 bu, reaching its cap below 137.3 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 154.68 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 92.8 bu | PLC: $3.41 or lower ARC-CO: $3.42 to $4.52 |
| 70% 108.3 bu | PLC: $3.55 or lower ARC-CO: $3.56 to $4.52 |
| 80% 123.7 bu | PLC: $3.66 or lower ARC-CO: $3.67 to $4.52 |
| 90% 139.2 bu | PLC: $3.74 or lower ARC-CO: $3.75 to $4.52 |
| 100% 154.7 bu | PLC: $3.81 or lower ARC-CO: $3.82 to $4.52 |
FSA history, non-irrigated
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 158.87 | $3.70 | 130.27 | none |
| 2022 | 159.07 | $3.70 | 149.82 | none |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Soybeans 2026 in Grand Forks County: too close to call
Non-irrigated, 2026: Too close to call (expected $0 PLC vs $1.82 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 1; the gap is under $3.65).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $100.52 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $45.76 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 1 of the 10 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $1.82 per base acre.
2027: Too close to call (expected $2.51 PLC vs $2.73 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 2; the gap is under $6.23). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 30.4 bu (program year 2025) and the official 36.86 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $13.19 more per base acre, but the gap is within the normal swing; either is a defensible choice (expected $0 PLC vs $13.19 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 2).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $100.52 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $65.95 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 10 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $13.19 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $14.38 more per base acre, but the gap is within the normal swing; either is a defensible choice (expected $2.51 PLC vs $16.89 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 30.4 bu (program year 2025) and the official 53.13 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 30.4 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 49.48 · 2021: 59.62 · 2022: 54.8 · 2023: 38.15 · 2024: 55.1 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 53.13 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 54.3 bu, reaching its cap below 47.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 53.13 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 31.9 bu | PLC: $8.27 or lower ARC-CO: $8.28 to $10.95 |
| 70% 37.2 bu | PLC: $8.62 or lower ARC-CO: $8.63 to $10.95 |
| 80% 42.5 bu | PLC: $8.88 or lower ARC-CO: $8.89 to $10.95 |
| 90% 47.8 bu | PLC: $9.08 or lower ARC-CO: $9.09 to $10.95 |
| 100% 53.1 bu | PLC: $9.24 or lower ARC-CO: $9.25 to $10.95 |
FSA history, irrigated
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 55.82 | $8.95 | 57.37 | none |
| 2022 | 53.16 | $9.12 | 53.00 | none |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 34.57 · 2021: 33.5 · 2022: 39.1 · 2023: 36.91 · 2024: 41.68 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 36.86 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 37.7 bu, reaching its cap below 32.7 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 36.86 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 22.1 bu | PLC: $8.27 or lower ARC-CO: $8.28 to $10.95 |
| 70% 25.8 bu | PLC: $8.62 or lower ARC-CO: $8.63 to $10.95 |
| 80% 29.5 bu | PLC: $8.88 or lower ARC-CO: $8.89 to $10.95 |
| 90% 33.2 bu | PLC: $9.08 or lower ARC-CO: $9.09 to $10.95 |
| 100% 36.9 bu | PLC: $9.24 or lower ARC-CO: $9.25 to $10.95 |
FSA history, non-irrigated
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 37.10 | $8.95 | 31.25 | none |
| 2022 | 36.85 | $9.12 | 37.30 | none |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Wheat 2026 in Grand Forks County: leans PLC
Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $8.31 more per base acre, but the gap is within the normal swing; either is a defensible choice (expected $27.11 PLC vs $18.81 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 4 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 2).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $118.03 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $43.70 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 10 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $27.11 and ARC-CO $18.81 per base acre.
2027: Leans PLC: expected about $8.31 more per base acre, but the gap is within the normal swing; either is a defensible choice (expected $27.11 PLC vs $18.81 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 4 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 2). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 52.8 bu (program year 2025) and the official 61.38 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Irrigated, 2026: Too close to call (expected $27.11 PLC vs $31.65 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3; the gap is under $5.86).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $118.03 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $59.79 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 10 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $27.11 and ARC-CO $31.65 per base acre.
2027: Too close to call (expected $27.11 PLC vs $31.65 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 3 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3; the gap is under $5.86). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 52.8 bu (program year 2025) and the official 83.98 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 52.8 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 72.5 · 2021: 87.58 · 2022: 82.08 · 2023: 83.36 · 2024: 86.51 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 83.98 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 83.1 bu, reaching its cap below 72.0 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 83.98 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 50.4 bu | PLC: $4.95 or lower ARC-CO: $4.96 to $6.17 |
| 70% 58.8 bu | PLC: $5.15 or lower ARC-CO: $5.16 to $6.12 |
| 80% 67.2 bu | PLC: $5.30 or lower ARC-CO: $5.31 to $6.00 |
| 90% 75.6 bu | PLC: $5.41 or lower ARC-CO: $5.42 to $5.66 |
| 100% 84.0 bu | PLC: $6.34 or lower ARC-CO: never |
FSA history, irrigated
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 71.47 | $5.50 | 84.98 | none |
| 2022 | 71.35 | $5.50 | 80.00 | none |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 55.41 · 2021: 50.6 · 2022: 64.79 · 2023: 63.93 · 2024: 74.19 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 61.38 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 60.7 bu, reaching its cap below 52.6 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 61.38 bu county yield, 2026 prices
| PLC yield, % of your official benchmark | Which pays more, by season-average price |
|---|---|
| 60% 36.8 bu | PLC: $4.95 or lower ARC-CO: $4.96 to $6.17 |
| 70% 43.0 bu | PLC: $5.15 or lower ARC-CO: $5.16 to $6.12 |
| 80% 49.1 bu | PLC: $5.30 or lower ARC-CO: $5.31 to $6.00 |
| 90% 55.2 bu | PLC: $5.41 or lower ARC-CO: $5.42 to $5.66 |
| 100% 61.4 bu | PLC: $6.34 or lower ARC-CO: never |
FSA history, non-irrigated
| Year | Benchmark | Price | County yield | ARC-CO $/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 61.94 | $5.50 | 44.98 | none |
| 2022 | 59.97 | $5.50 | 62.71 | none |
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
An estimate, not a USDA determination. Source: FSA ARC/PLC program data. Find your county office.
Printed from https://agsist.com/arc-plc/north-dakota/grand-forks-county