2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Middlesex County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves.
Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: corn $4.70). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average
price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans.
Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.
2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (corn 114.5 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the
county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it.Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error
(2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in
at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop
Practice
Year
PLC
ARC-CO
Answer
Corn
All practices
2026
$0.82
$3.86
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
All practices
2027
$8.89
$22.54
Leans ARC-CO
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
Corn 2026 in Middlesex County: Leans ARC-CO
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.05 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.82 PLC vs $3.86 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $194.65 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $68.92 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.82 and ARC-CO $3.86 per base acre.
2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $13.65 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $8.89 PLC vs $22.54 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 114.5 bu (program year 2025) and the official 134.33 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 114.5 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)134.33 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$675.68/ac
Guarantee (90%)$608.11/ac
Max payment (12%)$81.08/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$68.92
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 143 (dropped) · 2021: 143 · 2022: 130 · 2023: 130 · 2024: 125.6 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 134.33 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 137.6 bu, reaching its cap below 119.2 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 134.33 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 80.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 94.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 107.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 120.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 134.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
139.33
$3.70
143.00
none
2022
140.33
$3.70
130.00
none
2023
143.00
$3.98
130.00
none
2024
140.33
$4.85
119.10
$68.06
2025
138.67
$5.03
119.00
$83.70
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Nothing from FSA here for soybeans or wheat. Ask the county FSA office for “the 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yield for my county, crop and practice (irrigated or non-irrigated)”, or look it up in FSA’s program data (file: ARC-CO benchmark yields and revenues, program year 2026). Then type it into the calculator.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
Questions about Middlesex County
Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Middlesex County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.05 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.82 PLC vs $3.86 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $194.65 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $68.92 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.82 and ARC-CO $3.86 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Middlesex County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Middlesex County, Massachusetts is 134.33 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.