What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.
Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?
Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.
Your crops
Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet
Peanuts · irrigated
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $44 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Peanuts borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if peanuts average under 31.5 cents a pound for 2026.
Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
Non-irrigated ground: leans PLC.
2027: no 2027 price yet
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $74 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Peanuts borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if peanuts average under 31.5 cents a pound for 2026.
Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.
2027: no 2027 price yet
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $105 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Peanuts borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if peanuts average under 31.5 cents a pound for 2026.
Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.
Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Deadlines
Dec 112026 signup ends Dec 11, 2026.
Nov 2 to Mar 152027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
Skip itDo nothing for 2026 and that farm gets no 2026 payment.
SignEvery owner and operator on the farm signs.
BringBring the farm’s FSA-156EZ. It lists the base acres and PLC yields.
2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Marion County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves.
Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: peanuts $0.2400). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average
price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Peanuts have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.
2027. Peanuts: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (peanuts 3,199.4 lb) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the
county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it.Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error
(2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in
at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop
Practice
Year
PLC
ARC-CO
Answer
Peanuts
Non-irrigated
2026
none
none
Ask FSA
Peanuts
Non-irrigated
2027
none
none
Ask FSA
Peanuts
Irrigated
2026
$203.97
$129.68
Leans PLC
Peanuts
Irrigated
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
FSA lists a benchmark here but no enrolled base for seed cotton.
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
Non-irrigated: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (3,199.4 lb) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (3,144.08 lb), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.
Irrigated, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $74.29 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $203.97 PLC vs $129.68 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 11 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.3150, up to $326.34 per base acre at the $0.1950 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $149.44 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 11 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2400, PLC is expected to pay $203.97 and ARC-CO $129.68 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 3,199.4 lb (program year 2025) and the official 4,650.99 lb benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from the Florida average for this crop and practice (the county has fewer than 8 years). Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled peanuts base in this county: 3,199.4 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)4,650.99 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.3150
Benchmark revenue$1,465.06/ac
Guarantee (90%)$1,318.56/ac
Max payment (12%)$175.81/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$149.44
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 3272 (dropped) · 2021: 4769.47 · 2022: 4531.1 · 2023: 4773.74 (dropped) · 2024: 4652.4 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 4,650.99 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.3150/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 4,185.9 lb, reaching its cap below 3,627.8 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 4,650.99 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 2,790.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
70% 3,255.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
80% 3,720.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
90% 4,185.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
100% 4,651.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
FSA history, irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2025
4,691.44
$0.3150
4652.40
$177.34
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)3,144.08 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.3150
Benchmark revenue$990.39/ac
Guarantee (90%)$891.35/ac
Max payment (12%)$118.85/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$101.02
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 2274.4 (dropped) · 2021: 3537.41 (dropped) · 2022: 3523.99 · 2023: 2764.15 · 2024: 3144.1 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 3,144.08 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.3150/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 2,829.7 lb, reaching its cap below 2,452.4 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 3,144.08 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 1,886.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
70% 2,200.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
80% 2,515.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
90% 2,829.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
100% 3,144.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
FSA history, non-irrigated
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2025
3,275.18
$0.3150
3144.10
$123.80
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Seed cotton 2026 in Marion County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even
FSA’s seed cotton price is its own weighted average of the upland cotton lint price and the cottonseed price. We use FSA’s seed cotton series as published and never build it from the lint price. All seed cotton counties.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)1,558.06 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4311
Benchmark revenue$671.68/ac
Guarantee (90%)$604.51/ac
Max payment (12%)$80.60/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$68.51
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1198.8 (dropped) · 2021: 1497.89 · 2022: 1761.19 (dropped) · 2023: 1513.51 · 2024: 1662.79 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,558.06 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 1,439.3 lb, reaching its cap below 1,247.4 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,558.06 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 934.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
70% 1,090.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
80% 1,246.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
90% 1,402.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
100% 1,558.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2025
1,404.79
$0.4311
1645.80
none
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Nothing from FSA here for corn or soybeans or wheat. Ask the county FSA office for “the 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yield for my county, crop and practice (irrigated or non-irrigated)”, or look it up in FSA’s program data (file: ARC-CO benchmark yields and revenues, program year 2026). Then type it into the calculator.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
Questions about Marion County
Should I pick ARC or PLC for peanuts in Marion County for 2026?
For a typical farm (irrigated): Leans PLC: expected about $74.29 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $203.97 PLC vs $129.68 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 11 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.3150, up to $326.34 per base acre at the $0.1950 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $149.44 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 11 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2400, PLC is expected to pay $203.97 and ARC-CO $129.68 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for peanuts in Marion County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for peanuts in Marion County, Florida is 4,650.99 lb (irrigated); 3,144.08 lb (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.3150 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for seed cotton in Marion County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for seed cotton in Marion County, Florida is 1,558.06 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.4311 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.