Pike County, Alabama

ARC or PLC: the short answer for Pike County, Alabama

By Sigurd Lindquist, a Certified Crop Adviser (CCA).

What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.

Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?

Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.

Your main crops

Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet

Peanuts · irrigated

PLCLeans

PLC comes out about $61 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Peanuts borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.

PLC only pays if peanuts average under 31.5 cents a pound for 2026.

Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Corn · non-irrigated

Either oneClose

ARC-CO comes out about $3 more per base acre, but it swings more than that from year to year.

PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.

Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: ARC-CO

Seed cotton · irrigated

PLCLeans

PLC comes out about $27 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.

Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

Non-irrigated ground: ask your FSA office.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Wheat

Either oneClose

They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.

PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Smaller crops here

Each has under 400 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).

Sorghum

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $5 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Soybeans

Neither expected to payClose

Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).

PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.

2027: ARC-CO

Oats

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $11 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.

PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Deadlines

Counter sheet for the FSA office Share this county

Show the math

2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Pike County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves. Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: peanuts $0.2400, seed cotton $0.4114; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: corn $4.70, wheat $6.30, sorghum $4.50, soybeans $12.00, oats $3.35). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Peanuts, seed cotton, wheat, sorghum, oats have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.

Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against close, either one at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.

2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Peanuts, wheat, oats: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Seed cotton, sorghum wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.

Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (peanuts 2,856.7 lb; corn 62.1 bu; seed cotton 1,974.7 lb; wheat 32.9 bu; sorghum 36.0 bu; soybeans 16.9 bu; oats 47.7 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.

How we call it. Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error (2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.

Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
CropPracticeYearPLCARC-COAnswer
PeanutsNon-irrigated2026nonenoneAsk FSA
PeanutsNon-irrigated2027nonenoneAsk FSA
PeanutsIrrigated2026$182.12$121.08Leans PLC
PeanutsIrrigated2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet
CornNon-irrigated2026$0.44$3.00Either one
CornNon-irrigated2027$4.82$28.72ARC-CO
CornIrrigated2026$0.44$6.47Leans ARC-CO
CornIrrigated2027$4.82$28.71Leans ARC-CO
Seed cottonNon-irrigated2026nonenoneAsk FSA
Seed cottonNon-irrigated2027nonenoneWait for USDA
Seed cottonIrrigated2026$29.36$2.02Leans PLC
Seed cottonIrrigated2027nonenoneWait for USDA
WheatAll practices2026$6.06$6.28Either one
WheatAll practices2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet
SorghumAll practices2026$7.66$12.57Leans ARC-CO
SorghumAll practices2027nonenoneWait for USDA
SoybeansAll practices2026$0$0Neither pays
SoybeansAll practices2027$1.36$23.54ARC-CO
OatsAll practices2026$0$11.37Leans ARC-CO
OatsAll practices2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet

FSA lists a benchmark here but no enrolled base for sesame seed.

Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.

Peanuts 2026 in Pike County: Leans PLC

All peanuts counties.

Non-irrigated: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (2,856.7 lb) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (2,795.73 lb), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $61.04 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $182.12 PLC vs $121.08 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 11 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.3150, up to $291.38 per base acre at the $0.1950 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $139.52 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 11 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2400, PLC is expected to pay $182.12 and ARC-CO $121.08 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 2,856.7 lb (program year 2025) and the official 4,342.50 lb benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled peanuts base in this county: 2,856.7 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)4,342.50 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.3150
Benchmark revenue$1,367.89/ac
Guarantee (90%)$1,231.10/ac
Max payment (12%)$164.15/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$139.52

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 4586.25 · 2021: 4017.87 · 2022: 3712.22 (dropped) · 2023: 4886.73 (dropped) · 2024: 4423.38 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 4,342.50 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.3150/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 3,908.3 lb, reaching its cap below 3,387.2 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 4,342.50 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
2,605.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
70%
3,039.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
80%
3,474.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
90%
3,908.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
100%
4,342.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)2,795.73 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.3150
Benchmark revenue$880.65/ac
Guarantee (90%)$792.59/ac
Max payment (12%)$105.68/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$89.83

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 3089.08 · 2021: 3355.8 (dropped) · 2022: 2554.43 · 2023: 2743.68 · 2024: 2387.47 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 2,795.73 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.3150/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 2,516.2 lb, reaching its cap below 2,180.7 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 2,795.73 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
1,677.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
70%
1,957.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
80%
2,236.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
90%
2,516.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.
100%
2,795.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3149 or lower. Neither pays at $0.3150 or higher.

Corn 2026 in Pike County: Close, either one

Non-irrigated, 2026: Close, either one: about $2.56 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $0.44 PLC vs $3.00 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $105.57 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $53.60 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.44 and ARC-CO $3.00 per base acre.

2027: Pick ARC-CO (expected $4.82 PLC vs $28.72 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 62.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 104.47 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $6.02 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.44 PLC vs $6.47 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $105.57 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $115.40 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.44 and ARC-CO $6.47 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $23.88 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $4.82 PLC vs $28.71 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 62.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 224.92 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 62.1 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)224.92 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$1,131.35/ac
Guarantee (90%)$1,018.21/ac
Max payment (12%)$135.76/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$115.40

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 225.23 · 2021: 273.41 (dropped) · 2022: 216.74 · 2023: 232.78 · 2024: 202.16 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 224.92 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 230.4 bu, reaching its cap below 199.6 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 224.92 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
135.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70%
157.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80%
179.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90%
202.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100%
224.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
2021217.36$3.70266.51none
2022218.01$3.70211.22none
2023219.62$3.98228.64none
2024218.91$4.85199.40$67.61
2025223.94$5.03209.41$135.17

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)104.47 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$525.48/ac
Guarantee (90%)$472.94/ac
Max payment (12%)$63.06/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$53.60

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 120.21 · 2021: 130.62 (dropped) · 2022: 87.94 · 2023: 105.27 · 2024: 80.63 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 104.47 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 107.0 bu, reaching its cap below 92.7 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 104.47 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
62.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70%
73.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80%
83.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90%
94.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100%
104.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202193.82$3.70124.92none
2022113.88$3.7083.38none
2023123.88$3.98101.85none
2024110.76$4.8578.35$53.72
2025103.77$5.03110.60$9.66

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Seed cotton 2026 in Pike County: Leans PLC

FSA’s seed cotton price is its own weighted average of the upland cotton lint price and the cottonseed price. We use FSA’s seed cotton series as published and never build it from the lint price. All seed cotton counties.

Non-irrigated: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (1,974.7 lb) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (1,520.38 lb), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $27.34 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $29.36 PLC vs $2.02 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $201.42 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $112.27 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $29.36 and ARC-CO $2.02 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 1,974.7 lb (program year 2025) and the official 2,553.12 lb benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from the Alabama average for this crop and practice (the county has fewer than 8 years). Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled seed cotton base in this county: 1,974.7 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)2,553.12 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4311
Benchmark revenue$1,100.65/ac
Guarantee (90%)$990.59/ac
Max payment (12%)$132.08/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$112.27

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 2221.2 (dropped) · 2021: 3022.2 (dropped) · 2022: 2324.16 · 2023: 2564.45 · 2024: 2770.75 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 2,553.12 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 2,358.5 lb, reaching its cap below 2,044.1 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 2,553.12 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
1,531.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
70%
1,787.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
80%
2,042.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
90%
2,297.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
100%
2,553.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)1,520.38 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4311
Benchmark revenue$655.44/ac
Guarantee (90%)$589.89/ac
Max payment (12%)$78.65/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$66.85

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1310.78 (dropped) · 2021: 1809.98 (dropped) · 2022: 1719.38 · 2023: 1472.98 · 2024: 1368.77 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,520.38 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 1,404.5 lb, reaching its cap below 1,217.2 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,520.38 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
912.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
70%
1,064.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
80%
1,216.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
90%
1,368.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
100%
1,520.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.

Wheat 2026 in Pike County: Close, either one

All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $0.21 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $6.06 PLC vs $6.28 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 2 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $73.55 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $29.26 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $6.06 and ARC-CO $6.28 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 32.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 41.10 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 32.9 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)41.10 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$286.88/ac
Guarantee (90%)$258.19/ac
Max payment (12%)$34.43/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$29.26

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 35.3 (dropped) · 2021: 84 (dropped) · 2022: 47 · 2023: 37.9 · 2024: 38.4 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 41.10 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 40.7 bu, reaching its cap below 35.2 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 41.10 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
24.7 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. PLC pays more from $6.18 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70%
28.8 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80%
32.9 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.00. PLC pays more from $6.01 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90%
37.0 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.66. PLC pays more from $5.67 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100%
41.1 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202129.47$5.5084.00none
202231.80$5.5047.00none
202333.90$5.5037.90none
202437.90$6.2138.40none
202540.07$6.9842.80$33.56

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Sorghum 2026 in Pike County: Leans ARC-CO

All sorghum counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.90 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $7.66 PLC vs $12.57 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $68.85 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $24.06 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $7.66 and ARC-CO $12.57 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 36.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 44.50 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 36.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)44.50 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$235.85/ac
Guarantee (90%)$212.27/ac
Max payment (12%)$28.30/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$24.06

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 43 · 2021: 50 (dropped) · 2022: 41.1 · 2023: 49.4 · 2024: 38.4 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 44.50 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 45.5 bu, reaching its cap below 39.4 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 44.50 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
26.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.60 or lower. Both pay the same at $3.61. ARC-CO pays more from $3.62 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70%
31.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80%
35.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90%
40.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100%
44.5 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202141.00$3.9550.00none
202241.00$3.9541.10none
202343.00$4.3149.40none
202443.00$5.0138.40$21.54
202545.13$5.3033.60$28.70

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Soybeans 2026 in Pike County: Neither expected to pay

All practices, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $55.88 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $40.55 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Pick ARC-CO (expected $1.36 PLC vs $23.54 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 16.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 32.67 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 16.9 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)32.67 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$397.59/ac
Guarantee (90%)$357.83/ac
Max payment (12%)$47.71/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$40.55

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 42 (dropped) · 2021: 35 · 2022: 20 (dropped) · 2023: 30 · 2024: 33 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 32.67 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 33.4 bu, reaching its cap below 29.0 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 32.67 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
19.6 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70%
22.9 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80%
26.1 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90%
29.4 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100%
32.7 bu
PLC pays more at $9.25 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.26 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202131.53$8.9535.00none
202237.62$9.1216.67$34.31
202338.00$9.5730.00none
202438.00$11.1233.00$33.40
202535.67$12.1724.00$52.09

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Oats 2026 in Pike County: Leans ARC-CO

All oats counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $11.37 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $11.37 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $34.46 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $22.09 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $11.37 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 47.7 bu (program year 2025) and the official 54.96 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 47.7 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)54.96 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$216.54/ac
Guarantee (90%)$194.89/ac
Max payment (12%)$25.99/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$22.09

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 50 (dropped) · 2021: 50 · 2022: 64 (dropped) · 2023: 51.27 · 2024: 63.6 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 54.96 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 63.9 bu, reaching its cap below 55.4 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 54.96 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
33.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70%
38.5 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80%
44.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90%
49.5 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100%
55.0 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202151.27$2.5550.00none
202251.27$2.6764.00none
202350.60$2.7551.27none
202451.27$3.3863.60none
202551.02$3.8463.60none

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Sesame seed 2026 in Pike County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

All sesame seed counties.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)579.08 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4000
Benchmark revenue$231.63/ac
Guarantee (90%)$208.47/ac
Max payment (12%)$27.80/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$23.63

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 635 · 2021: 448 (dropped) · 2022: 572 · 2023: 530.25 · 2024: 672 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 579.08 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2731/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 763.3 lb, reaching its cap below 661.6 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 579.08 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
347.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1930 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1931 to $0.3599. Neither pays at $0.3600 or higher.
70%
405.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2045 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2046 to $0.3599. Neither pays at $0.3600 or higher.
80%
463.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2130 or lower. Both pay the same at $0.2131. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2132 to $0.3599. Neither pays at $0.3600 or higher.
90%
521.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2197 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2198 to $0.3599. Neither pays at $0.3600 or higher.
100%
579.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2250 or lower. Both pay the same at $0.2251. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2252 to $0.3599. Neither pays at $0.3600 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
2021733.33$0.3533225.00$25.91
2022731.67$0.3533572.00none
2023644.67$0.3633530.25none
2024605.33$0.3767672.00none
2025579.08$0.3867672.00none

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.

Run every number for your farm

Run your farm’s numbers

Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.

From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.

On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.

Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.

County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.

USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.

Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.

Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.

Questions about Pike County

Should I pick ARC or PLC for peanuts in Pike County for 2026?

For a typical farm (irrigated): Leans PLC: expected about $61.04 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $182.12 PLC vs $121.08 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 11 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.3150, up to $291.38 per base acre at the $0.1950 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $139.52 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 11 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2400, PLC is expected to pay $182.12 and ARC-CO $121.08 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for peanuts in Pike County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for peanuts in Pike County, Alabama is 4,342.50 lb (irrigated); 2,795.73 lb (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.3150 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Pike County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Close, either one: about $2.56 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $0.44 PLC vs $3.00 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $105.57 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $53.60 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.44 and ARC-CO $3.00 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Pike County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Pike County, Alabama is 224.92 bu (irrigated); 104.47 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for seed cotton in Pike County for 2026?

For a typical farm (irrigated): Leans PLC: expected about $27.34 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $29.36 PLC vs $2.02 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $201.42 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $112.27 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $29.36 and ARC-CO $2.02 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for seed cotton in Pike County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for seed cotton in Pike County, Alabama is 2,553.12 lb (irrigated); 1,520.38 lb (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.4311 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Pike County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $0.21 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $6.06 PLC vs $6.28 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 2 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $73.55 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $29.26 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $6.06 and ARC-CO $6.28 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Pike County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Pike County, Alabama is 41.10 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for sorghum in Pike County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $4.90 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $7.66 PLC vs $12.57 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $68.85 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $24.06 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $7.66 and ARC-CO $12.57 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Pike County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Pike County, Alabama is 44.50 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Pike County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $55.88 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $40.55 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Pike County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Pike County, Alabama is 32.67 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for oats in Pike County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $11.37 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $11.37 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $34.46 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $22.09 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $11.37 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Pike County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Pike County, Alabama is 54.96 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sesame seed in Pike County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sesame seed in Pike County, Alabama is 579.08 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.4000 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

An estimate, not a USDA determination. Source: FSA ARC/PLC program data. Find your county office.

Related: All Alabama counties · ARC or PLC calculator and method · Pike County in the Farmland Atlas

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