Madison County, Alabama

ARC or PLC: the short answer for Madison County, Alabama

By Sigurd Lindquist, a Certified Crop Adviser (CCA).

What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.

Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?

Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.

Your main crops

Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet

Seed cotton · non-irrigated

PLCLeans

PLC comes out about $28 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.

Irrigated ground: leans PLC. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Soybeans · non-irrigated

Neither expected to payClose

Neither one is likely to pay on soybeans for 2026 at USDA’s price outlook ($12.00).

PLC only pays if soybeans average under $10.71 a bushel for 2026.

Irrigated ground: neither pays. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: leans ARC-CO

Corn · non-irrigated

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $4 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.

PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.

Irrigated ground: leans ARC-CO. Figured with the county’s all-practice PLC yield; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher.

2027: leans ARC-CO

Smaller crops here

Each has under 400 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).

Sorghum

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $8 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Sorghum borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if sorghum averages under $4.67 a bushel for 2026.

2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price

Barley

ARC-COLeans

ARC-CO comes out about $6 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.

PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.

2027: no 2027 price yet

Oats

Ask FSANo answer yet

FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.

2027: ask your FSA office

Deadlines

Counter sheet for the FSA office Share this county

Show the math

2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Madison County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves. Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: seed cotton $0.4114; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: soybeans $12.00, corn $4.70, sorghum $4.50, barley $5.70, oats $3.35). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Seed cotton, sorghum, barley, oats have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.

Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Soybeans: USDA $12.00; futures-based $12.84 (Nov '26 October average so far, $12.89 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.996, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay (the same). Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.

2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures); soybeans $12.17 (Nov 2027 soybean futures $12.45 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.978, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Barley, oats: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Seed cotton, sorghum wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.

Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (seed cotton 2,026.5 lb; soybeans 36.0 bu; corn 131.9 bu; sorghum 43.0 bu; barley 38.3 bu; oats 61.3 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.

How we call it. Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error (2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.

Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
CropPracticeYearPLCARC-COAnswer
Seed cottonNon-irrigated2026$30.13$2.02Leans PLC
Seed cottonNon-irrigated2027nonenoneWait for USDA
Seed cottonIrrigated2026$30.13$2.68Leans PLC
Seed cottonIrrigated2027nonenoneWait for USDA
SoybeansNon-irrigated2026$0$0Neither pays
SoybeansNon-irrigated2027$2.91$11.06Leans ARC-CO
SoybeansIrrigated2026$0$0Neither pays
SoybeansIrrigated2027$2.91$13.53Leans ARC-CO
CornNon-irrigated2026$0.94$4.92Leans ARC-CO
CornNon-irrigated2027$10.24$33.50Leans ARC-CO
CornIrrigated2026$0.94$6.56Leans ARC-CO
CornIrrigated2027$10.24$28.63Leans ARC-CO
SorghumAll practices2026$9.16$16.80Leans ARC-CO
SorghumAll practices2027nonenoneWait for USDA
BarleyAll practices2026$2.66$8.81Leans ARC-CO
BarleyAll practices2027nonenoneNo 2027 price yet
OatsAll practices2026nonenoneAsk FSA
OatsAll practices2027nonenoneAsk FSA

FSA lists a benchmark here but no enrolled base for canola.

Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.

Seed cotton 2026 in Madison County: Leans PLC

FSA’s seed cotton price is its own weighted average of the upland cotton lint price and the cottonseed price. We use FSA’s seed cotton series as published and never build it from the lint price. All seed cotton counties.

Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $28.11 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $30.13 PLC vs $2.02 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $206.70 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $112.07 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $30.13 and ARC-CO $2.02 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 2,026.5 lb (program year 2025) and the official 2,548.63 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $27.45 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $30.13 PLC vs $2.68 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $206.70 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $148.81 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $30.13 and ARC-CO $2.68 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 2,026.5 lb (program year 2025) and the official 3,384.12 lb benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled seed cotton base in this county: 2,026.5 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)3,384.12 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4311
Benchmark revenue$1,458.89/ac
Guarantee (90%)$1,313.00/ac
Max payment (12%)$175.07/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$148.81

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 3516.17 · 2021: 3208.3 · 2022: 3427.87 · 2023: 4189.9 (dropped) · 2024: 3180.36 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 3,384.12 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 3,126.2 lb, reaching its cap below 2,709.4 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 3,384.12 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
2,030.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
70%
2,368.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
80%
2,707.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
90%
3,045.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
100%
3,384.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
20213,621.43$0.36703054.70none
20223,520.51$0.36703304.99none
20233,476.38$0.36704097.74none
20243,564.24$0.39583118.92$141.07
20253,593.11$0.43112891.42$185.88

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)2,548.63 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4311
Benchmark revenue$1,098.71/ac
Guarantee (90%)$988.84/ac
Max payment (12%)$131.85/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$112.07

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 2573.81 · 2021: 2494.3 · 2022: 2577.79 · 2023: 3392.3 (dropped) · 2024: 2012.59 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 2,548.63 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 2,354.4 lb, reaching its cap below 2,040.5 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 2,548.63 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
1,529.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
70%
1,784.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
80%
2,038.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
90%
2,293.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
100%
2,548.6 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
20212,529.53$0.36702356.18none
20222,516.83$0.36702467.30none
20232,490.31$0.36703309.43none
20242,525.64$0.39581957.34$99.97
20252,632.92$0.43112448.46$136.21

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Soybeans 2026 in Madison County: Neither expected to pay

Non-irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $119.03 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $58.69 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $8.16 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $2.91 PLC vs $11.06 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 3). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 36.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 47.28 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $119.03 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $76.35 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $10.62 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $2.91 PLC vs $13.53 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 36.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 61.51 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled soybeans base in this county: 36.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)61.51 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$748.58/ac
Guarantee (90%)$673.72/ac
Max payment (12%)$89.83/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$76.35

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 68.33 (dropped) · 2021: 60.68 · 2022: 64.99 · 2023: 58.87 · 2024: 57.68 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 61.51 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 62.9 bu, reaching its cap below 54.5 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 61.51 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
36.9 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70%
43.1 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80%
49.2 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90%
55.4 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100%
61.5 bu
PLC pays more at $9.24 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.25 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202157.96$8.9558.08none
202258.41$9.1262.91none
202357.97$9.5757.31none
202460.67$11.1256.64$13.80
202560.99$12.1756.90$70.58

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)47.28 bu
Benchmark price 2026$12.17
Benchmark revenue$575.40/ac
Guarantee (90%)$517.86/ac
Max payment (12%)$69.05/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$58.69

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 46.64 · 2021: 52.37 (dropped) · 2022: 45.3 · 2023: 49.89 · 2024: 34.84 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 47.28 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($10.71/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 48.4 bu, reaching its cap below 41.9 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 47.28 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
28.4 bu
PLC pays more at $8.27 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.28 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
70%
33.1 bu
PLC pays more at $8.62 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.63 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
80%
37.8 bu
PLC pays more at $8.88 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $8.89 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
90%
42.6 bu
PLC pays more at $9.08 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.09 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.
100%
47.3 bu
PLC pays more at $9.25 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $9.26 to $10.95. Neither pays at $10.96 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202141.66$8.9549.87none
202241.12$9.1243.30none
202345.67$9.5748.39none
202444.55$11.1233.84$49.54
202546.78$12.1742.33$67.91

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Corn 2026 in Madison County: Leans ARC-CO

Non-irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.98 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.94 PLC vs $4.92 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $224.23 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $87.78 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.94 and ARC-CO $4.92 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $23.26 more per base acre; but the gap is within the normal swing, so PLC is a defensible choice (expected $10.24 PLC vs $33.50 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 131.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 171.10 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Irrigated, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $5.62 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.94 PLC vs $6.56 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $224.23 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $117.11 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.94 and ARC-CO $6.56 per base acre.

2027: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $18.39 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $10.24 PLC vs $28.63 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 131.9 bu (program year 2025) and the official 228.26 bu benchmark. That PLC yield is FSA’s average over all practices, irrigated and not; an irrigated farm’s own is often higher. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 131.9 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

Irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)228.26 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$1,148.15/ac
Guarantee (90%)$1,033.33/ac
Max payment (12%)$137.78/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$117.11

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 243.51 (dropped) · 2021: 232.36 · 2022: 212.69 · 2023: 239.73 · 2024: 208.16 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 228.26 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 233.8 bu, reaching its cap below 202.6 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 228.26 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
137.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70%
159.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80%
182.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90%
205.4 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100%
228.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
2021237.20$3.70217.96none
2022237.53$3.70201.17none
2023240.49$3.98231.09none
2024236.34$4.85202.40$114.63
2025235.51$5.03215.72$142.15

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Non-irrigated: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)171.10 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$860.63/ac
Guarantee (90%)$774.57/ac
Max payment (12%)$103.28/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$87.78

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 185.14 · 2021: 201.84 (dropped) · 2022: 130.26 · 2023: 197.89 · 2024: 129.24 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 171.10 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 175.2 bu, reaching its cap below 151.9 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 171.10 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
102.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70%
119.8 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80%
136.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90%
154.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100%
171.1 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.

FSA history, non-irrigated

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
2021169.03$3.70188.74none
2022173.23$3.70119.78none
2023181.91$3.98190.03none
2024178.55$4.85109.38$86.60
2025186.12$5.03170.59$112.34

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Sorghum 2026 in Madison County: Leans ARC-CO

All sorghum counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $7.64 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $9.16 PLC vs $16.80 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $82.24 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $32.15 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $9.16 and ARC-CO $16.80 per base acre.

2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 43.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 59.47 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled sorghum base in this county: 43.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)59.47 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.30
Benchmark revenue$315.19/ac
Guarantee (90%)$283.67/ac
Max payment (12%)$37.82/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$32.15

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 51 · 2021: 65 · 2022: 41.6 (dropped) · 2023: 87.1 (dropped) · 2024: 62.4 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 59.47 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.67/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 60.7 bu, reaching its cap below 52.6 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 59.47 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
35.7 bu
PLC pays more at $3.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.62 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
70%
41.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.76 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.77 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
80%
47.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.87 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.88 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
90%
53.5 bu
PLC pays more at $3.96 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.97 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.
100%
59.5 bu
PLC pays more at $4.03 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.04 to $4.76. Neither pays at $4.77 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202151.20$3.9565.00none
202250.87$3.9541.10none
202351.33$4.3187.10none
202450.87$5.0162.40none
202555.53$5.3062.40$35.32

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Barley 2026 in Madison County: Leans ARC-CO

All barley counties.

All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $6.14 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $2.66 PLC vs $8.81 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.

PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $92.13 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $31.04 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $2.66 and ARC-CO $8.81 per base acre.

2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.

For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 38.3 bu (program year 2025) and the official 47.33 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 38.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)47.33 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.43
Benchmark revenue$304.33/ac
Guarantee (90%)$273.90/ac
Max payment (12%)$36.52/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$31.04

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 50 · 2021: 42 (dropped) · 2022: 46 · 2023: 46 · 2024: 56.4 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 47.33 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 49.1 bu, reaching its cap below 42.5 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 47.33 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
28.4 bu
PLC pays more at $4.29 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.30 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
70%
33.1 bu
PLC pays more at $4.47 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.48 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
80%
37.9 bu
PLC pays more at $4.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.62 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
90%
42.6 bu
PLC pays more at $4.72 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.73 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
100%
47.3 bu
PLC pays more at $4.80 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.81 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202245.33$4.9546.00none
202346.00$4.9546.00none
202447.33$5.0756.40none
202547.33$6.1056.40none

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Oats 2026 in Madison County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

All oats counties.

All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (61.3 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (51.76 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.

Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 61.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)51.76 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$203.93/ac
Guarantee (90%)$183.54/ac
Max payment (12%)$24.47/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$20.80

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 50 · 2021: 44 (dropped) · 2022: 64 (dropped) · 2023: 47.67 · 2024: 57.6 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 51.76 bu.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 60.2 bu, reaching its cap below 52.2 bu.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 51.76 bu county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
31.1 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70%
36.2 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80%
41.4 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90%
46.6 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100%
51.8 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
202144.33$2.5544.00none
202244.33$2.6764.00none
202345.67$2.7547.67none
202447.67$3.3857.60none
202548.56$3.8457.60none

Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Canola 2026 in Madison County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even

All canola counties.

All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark

Benchmark yield (FSA)1,510.20 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.2595
Benchmark revenue$391.90/ac
Guarantee (90%)$352.71/ac
Max payment (12%)$47.03/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$39.97

FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1473 (dropped) · 2021: 1539 (dropped) · 2022: 1517 · 2023: 1528 · 2024: 1485.6 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,510.20 lb.

At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the county yield comes in below 1,485.1 lb, reaching its cap below 1,287.1 lb.

PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,510.20 lb county yield, 2026 prices

PLC yield, % of your official benchmarkWhich pays more, by season-average price
60%
906.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1855 or lower. Both pay the same at $0.1856. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1857 to $0.2276. PLC pays more from $0.2277 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70%
1,057.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1930 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1931 to $0.2243. PLC pays more from $0.2244 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80%
1,208.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1985 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1986 to $0.2177. PLC pays more from $0.2178 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90%
1,359.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100%
1,510.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.

FSA history, all practices

YearBenchmarkPriceCounty yieldARC-CO $/ac
20211,552.33$0.20151539.00none
20221,495.00$0.20151517.00none
20231,495.00$0.20151528.00none
20241,509.67$0.23371485.60$3.33
20251,528.00$0.25951485.60$43.41

Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.

Nothing from FSA here for wheat. Ask the county FSA office for “the 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yield for my county, crop and practice (irrigated or non-irrigated)”, or look it up in FSA’s program data (file: ARC-CO benchmark yields and revenues, program year 2026). Then type it into the calculator.

Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.

Run every number for your farm

Run your farm’s numbers

Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.

From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.

On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.

Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.

County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.

USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.

Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.

Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.

Questions about Madison County

Should I pick ARC or PLC for seed cotton in Madison County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Leans PLC: expected about $28.11 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $30.13 PLC vs $2.02 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $206.70 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $112.07 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $30.13 and ARC-CO $2.02 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for seed cotton in Madison County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for seed cotton in Madison County, Alabama is 3,384.12 lb (irrigated); 2,548.63 lb (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.4311 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for soybeans in Madison County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Neither expected to pay (expected $0 PLC vs $0 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $10.71, up to $119.03 per base acre at the $6.82 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $58.69 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 0 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $12.00, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $0 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for soybeans in Madison County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for soybeans in Madison County, Alabama is 61.51 bu (irrigated); 47.28 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $12.17 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Madison County for 2026?

For a typical farm (non-irrigated): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $3.98 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.94 PLC vs $4.92 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $224.23 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $87.78 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.94 and ARC-CO $4.92 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Madison County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Madison County, Alabama is 228.26 bu (irrigated); 171.10 bu (non-irrigated). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for sorghum in Madison County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $7.64 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $9.16 PLC vs $16.80 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.67, up to $82.24 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $32.15 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.50, PLC is expected to pay $9.16 and ARC-CO $16.80 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for sorghum in Madison County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for sorghum in Madison County, Alabama is 59.47 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.30 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

Should I pick ARC or PLC for barley in Madison County for 2026?

For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $6.14 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $2.66 PLC vs $8.81 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 8). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $5.58, up to $92.13 per base acre at the $2.75 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $31.04 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 8 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $5.70, PLC is expected to pay $2.66 and ARC-CO $8.81 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for barley in Madison County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for barley in Madison County, Alabama is 47.33 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.43 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Madison County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Madison County, Alabama is 51.76 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for canola in Madison County?

FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for canola in Madison County, Alabama is 1,510.20 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2595 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.

An estimate, not a USDA determination. Source: FSA ARC/PLC program data. Find your county office.

Related: All Alabama counties · ARC or PLC calculator and method · Madison County in the Farmland Atlas

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