Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) · how the numbers were checked
LRP on RMA’s own record: every sales day since 2013, every test
This is the detail behind the LRP calculator: what the top coverage paid back on every sales day RMA posted since July 2013, whether a lower coverage level did better, and how that was worked out. It compares coverage levels. It does not say whether to insure.
Does a lower LRP coverage level beat 95 to 100% coverage?
No lower coverage level beat 95 to 100% by more than luck could explain.
That is on RMA’s own record of every sales day since Jul 1, 2013: 36 tests of lower levels, and of the level with the best record so far, for feeder cattle, fed cattle and hogs. This compares coverage levels. It does not say whether to insure. Here is what the top coverage offered each day (about 99.1% on average) did, per $100 of coverage, at today’s subsidy:
| Length | Feeder cattle | Fed cattle | Hogs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 weeks | $0.1243 of 100 | −$0.9627 of 100 | $1.3349 of 100 |
| 17 weeks | $0.0644 of 100 | −$1.0028 of 100 | $1.3049 of 100 |
| 21 weeks | −$0.1745 of 100 | −$1.1927 of 100 | $1.4950 of 100 |
| 26 weeks | −$0.4845 of 100 | −$1.3926 of 100 | $1.3851 of 100 |
| 30 weeks | −$0.7845 of 100 | −$1.5326 of 100 | −$1.7749 of 100from Jan 2021 |
| 34 weeks | −$1.2441 of 100 | −$1.7126 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
| 39 weeks | −$1.8535 of 100 | −$1.8123 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
| 43 weeks | −$2.7027 of 100 | −$2.0021 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
| 47 weeks | −$3.2218 of 100 | −$2.1520 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
| 52 weeks | 1 year, too few | −$2.4520 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
Sales days Jul 1, 2013 (insurance year 2014, July to June) to the last policy that had ended by Oct 15, 2026. Top line: what it paid minus your premium, per $100 of coverage, averaged over every sales day. Under it: on how many of every 100 sales days it paid anything. “Too few” means fewer than 5 insurance years with 20 or more sales days.
For a lot: 600 head of steers at 850 lb (8.5 cwt), covered at $338.06 a cwt (that day’s top 13-week price for weight 2 steers), is $2,874 of coverage a head. On the record’s average day at today’s subsidy, 13 weeks came out ahead $3.42 a head, $2,052 for the lot, before basis.
What this means: LRP is protection against a price drop. Since July 2013, at today’s subsidy, each $1 of premium at the top level and 13 weeks paid back $1.05 on feeder cattle, $0.59 on fed cattle and $1.32 on hogs. Since July 2020 it paid back $0.91 on feeder cattle, $0.36 on fed cattle and $0.84 on hogs. It paid something on 27 to 49 of every 100 sales days bought.
What the numbers would pick
History only, not adviceNo coverage level beat 95 to 100%.
This compares coverage levels. It does not say whether to insure. A level is kept only if, adjusted for running all 36 tests (Holm), the odds of luck are under 0.05, it came out ahead, and it came out ahead at every length. None did.
Closest call, not proven: fed cattle at 85 to 90%, instead of 95 to 100%. Since July 2013 it came out ahead in 10 of 13 insurance years, about $1.38 per $100 of expected value, averaged over the years. Ahead means it lost less on average because it covered less; in a crash it pays less. 90 to 95% did about the same (ahead in 10 of 13 years). Since July 2020 it was ahead in 6 of 6 years. With 6 years, the smallest odds the test can give are 1 in 32, which cannot clear the bar across 36 tests. Adjusted for running all 36 tests, the odds it was luck are 0.24, far from the 0.05 bar. Even counting only the 12 tests that ask whether a lower level beat 95 to 100% since 2013, the smallest adjusted odds are 0.082, still not under 0.05.
Fed cattle ending values (USDA’s 5-area weekly steer price) came in above RMA’s expected ending value in 10 of 13 insurance years; the ending value is a weekly cash average, the expected value comes from futures. On what producers actually bought, RMA’s Summary of Business shows fed cattle LRP paid back $0.20 per $1 producers paid, insurance years 2014 to 2025 (RMA Summary of Business).
I am not recommending it.
Why high coverage is the usual default: the subsidy is a share of the premium, and the premium per head is largest at the top level, so if RMA’s premiums are fair the subsidy dollars per head are largest there too. Published work from Utah State University (Haviland and Feuz, the USU LRP tool) also found 95 to 100% coverage did best on past contracts. That is their finding, not a test on this page.
The record at the subsidy in force each year
The tests run at the subsidy in force each year, so here is the same record that way, since July 2013. Before July 2019 the subsidy was 13% at every level; the year from July 2019 had its own table (below).
| Length | Feeder cattle | Fed cattle | Hogs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 weeks | −$0.2443 of 100 | −$1.3627 of 100 | $0.6849 of 100 |
| 17 weeks | −$0.3444 of 100 | −$1.4528 of 100 | $0.5849 of 100 |
| 21 weeks | −$0.5945 of 100 | −$1.6727 of 100 | $0.7450 of 100 |
| 26 weeks | −$0.8845 of 100 | −$1.9026 of 100 | $0.6051 of 100 |
| 30 weeks | −$1.1545 of 100 | −$2.0626 of 100 | −$1.7749 of 100from Jan 2021 |
| 34 weeks | −$1.5441 of 100 | −$2.2326 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
| 39 weeks | −$2.0935 of 100 | −$2.3223 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
| 43 weeks | −$2.8427 of 100 | −$2.4821 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
| 47 weeks | −$3.3018 of 100 | −$2.5620 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
| 52 weeks | 1 year, too few | −$2.7720 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
Since July 1, 2020 (insurance year 2021), when today’s subsidy and the premium billed at the end began. It is the regime you buy in today, and it is short.
| Length | Feeder cattle | Fed cattle | Hogs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 weeks | −$0.2243 of 100 | −$1.4921 of 100 | −$0.6542 of 100 |
| 17 weeks | −$0.6444 of 100 | −$1.7821 of 100 | −$0.9444 of 100 |
| 21 weeks | −$1.0243 of 100 | −$2.1517 of 100 | −$1.2442 of 100 |
| 26 weeks | −$1.4944 of 100 | −$2.5716 of 100 | −$1.7043 of 100 |
| 30 weeks | −$1.8342 of 100 | −$2.8313 of 100 | −$1.7749 of 100from Jan 2021 |
| 34 weeks | −$2.1835 of 100 | −$3.1011 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
| 39 weeks | −$2.9226 of 100 | −$3.425 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
| 43 weeks | −$3.3421 of 100 | −$3.593 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
| 47 weeks | −$3.4717 of 100 | −$3.634 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
| 52 weeks | 1 year, too few | −$3.717 of 100 | 2 years, too few |
Per $100 of coverage, averaged over every sales day; how many of every 100 sales days it paid anything. Most sales days are not independent of the next: a cattle rally lasts years, so the record is closer to one outcome per insurance year than to the 204,111 sales-day entries behind it. A University of Nebraska study found Nebraska feeder cattle LRP paid producers about $1.15 per $1 of premium from 2015 to 2024 (UNL); RMA’s national Summary of Business gives $1.08 for feeder cattle in those years. Both weigh each policy by what was bought; this record weighs every sales day the same.
What we tested
36 tests, adjusted together for running that many (Holm). None was kept. “Years ahead” counts insurance years (July to June) where the choice came out ahead of 95 to 100%, or for the first line in each animal, where 95 to 100% paid more than it cost. “Per $100” is the average of the yearly averages: for a lower level, the difference per $100 of RMA’s expected ending value, so a smaller policy is not flattered; for the first line, per $100 of coverage. “Adjusted” is the odds of luck after allowing for all 36 tests. “Not enough history” means fewer than 5 insurance years with 20 or more sales days: RMA offered fixed levels in every band only from insurance year 2025, so the 80 to 85% and 70 to 80% bands are mostly too new.
Since July 2013 (insurance years 2014 on)
| What was tested | Verdict | Years ahead | Per $100 | Odds | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feeder cattle | |||||
| 95 to 100% paid more than it cost | No: lost money in 8 of 13 years | 5 of 13 | −$0.87 | 0.19 | 1 |
| 90 to 95% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 7 of 13 | $0.07 | 0.85 | 1 |
| 85 to 90% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 8 of 12 | $0.51 | 0.33 | 1 |
| 80 to 85% instead of 95 to 100% | Not enough history | 4 of 4 | $2.88 | ||
| 70 to 80% instead of 95 to 100% | Not enough history | 2 of 2 | $2.93 | ||
| The level with the best record so far, instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 7 of 13 | $0.19 | 0.45 | 1 |
| Fed cattle | |||||
| 95 to 100% paid more than it cost | No: lost money in 10 of 13 years | 3 of 13 | −$1.96 | 0.004 | 0.16 |
| 90 to 95% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 10 of 13 | $0.84 | 0.014 | 0.48 |
| 85 to 90% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 10 of 13 | $1.38 | 0.007 | 0.24 |
| 80 to 85% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 7 of 10 | $1.41 | 0.035 | 1 |
| 70 to 80% instead of 95 to 100% | Not enough history | 3 of 3 | $3.32 | ||
| The level with the best record so far, instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 10 of 13 | $0.99 | 0.015 | 0.49 |
| Hogs | |||||
| 95 to 100% paid more than it cost | Not kept | 7 of 13 | $0.76 | 0.53 | 1 |
| 90 to 95% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 5 of 13 | −$0.15 | 0.61 | 1 |
| 85 to 90% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 6 of 13 | −$0.32 | 0.54 | 1 |
| 80 to 85% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 6 of 13 | −$0.55 | 0.47 | 1 |
| 70 to 80% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 6 of 13 | −$0.38 | 0.67 | 1 |
| The level with the best record so far, instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 3 of 13 | −$0.41 | 0.090 | 1 |
Since July 2020 (insurance years 2021 on, today’s subsidy)
| What was tested | Verdict | Years ahead | Per $100 | Odds | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feeder cattle | |||||
| 95 to 100% paid more than it cost | No: lost money in 5 of 6 years | 1 of 6 | −$1.76 | 0.063 | 1 |
| 90 to 95% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 4 of 6 | $0.49 | 0.31 | 1 |
| 85 to 90% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 4 of 5 | $1.31 | 0.13 | 1 |
| 80 to 85% instead of 95 to 100% | Not enough history | 2 of 2 | $2.78 | ||
| 70 to 80% instead of 95 to 100% | Not enough history | 2 of 2 | $2.93 | ||
| The level with the best record so far, instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 4 of 6 | $0.57 | 0.19 | 1 |
| Fed cattle | |||||
| 95 to 100% paid more than it cost | No: lost money in 6 of 6 years | 0 of 6 | −$2.74 | 0.031 | 1 |
| 90 to 95% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 6 of 6 | $1.34 | 0.031 | 1 |
| 85 to 90% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 6 of 6 | $2.10 | 0.031 | 1 |
| 80 to 85% instead of 95 to 100% | Not enough history | 4 of 4 | $2.55 | ||
| 70 to 80% instead of 95 to 100% | Not enough history | 2 of 2 | $2.60 | ||
| The level with the best record so far, instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 6 of 6 | $1.85 | 0.031 | 1 |
| Hogs | |||||
| 95 to 100% paid more than it cost | No: lost money in 4 of 6 years | 2 of 6 | −$1.16 | 0.41 | 1 |
| 90 to 95% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 3 of 6 | $0.14 | 0.75 | 1 |
| 85 to 90% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 4 of 6 | $0.32 | 0.72 | 1 |
| 80 to 85% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 4 of 6 | $0.49 | 0.75 | 1 |
| 70 to 80% instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 4 of 6 | $1.07 | 0.38 | 1 |
| The level with the best record so far, instead of 95 to 100% | Not kept | 2 of 6 | −$0.27 | 0.50 | 1 |
Each test, year by year
Opens the full results file (about 100 KB).
How the record is worked
- The data. 6,922 of RMA’s daily LRP files (ADM livestock), every sales day from Jul 1, 2013 to Oct 15, 2026: the coverage prices, rates and cost per cwt RMA posted that day, and the actual ending values it posted later. Nothing is estimated or modeled. 65,375 offers, 204,111 entries once each coverage band is counted.
- What is tested. Feeder cattle steers, weight 2 (RMA type 810), fed cattle steers and heifers (type 820) and hogs (type 997). Other feeder types settle on the same index times their factor, so per $100 of coverage they come out the same. Not tested: unborn hogs, and the types RMA added from insurance year 2026 on (unborn calves and cull cows, RMA PM-25-028; weight-2 unborn feeders), which are too new.
- One entry. One animal, one sales day, one length, one coverage band. Per $100 of coverage: paid = coverage price minus actual ending value, when that is above zero; your premium = RMA’s cost per cwt less the subsidy; net = paid minus your premium. In each band the entry takes the highest level offered that day, so the 95 to 100% record is about 99.1% coverage on average. The record above is the plain average over every sales day.
- Walk-forward “best so far.” On each sales day it ranks the bands by their record among policies of the same length that had already ended at least 14 days before, so the ending value was out, once a band had 60 such entries, and takes the best-ranked band RMA offered that day. It uses RMA’s latest posted ending values; RMA restated 399 of them after first posting them.
- The odds. Daily entries overlap, so each insurance year counts once: the test flips the sign of each year’s average every possible way (exact sign flip) and asks how often that does as well as the real record. It runs only with 5 or more years of 20+ sales days. All 36 tests are adjusted together (Holm); kept means adjusted odds under 0.05, ahead on average, and ahead at every length with enough years.
- Gaps. 47 sales-day offers whose end date had passed with no ending value posted by RMA are left out (hogs 15, fed 20, feeder 12). Policies still running are left out until they end. RMA’s file for Mar 25, 2026 (2025_ADMLivestockLrp_Daily_20260325.zip) would not open; 19 of the missing values (fed 16, feeder 3) would have come from it, and the reader tries it again on every run until it opens or has failed on three days.
- Basis is not covered. LRP pays on the index, so every number here is at the index, not at your sale barn or packer.
Subsidy used, by coverage band
| Policies in | 95 to 100% | 90 to 95% | 85 to 90% | 80 to 85% | 70 to 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RY2014 to RY2019 | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| RY2020 | 20% | 25% | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| RY2021 on | 35% | 40% | 45% | 50% | 55% |
Share of RMA’s Summary of Business rows that got the subsidy in this table: RY2014 99%, RY2015 99%, RY2016 94%, RY2017 96%, RY2018 96%, RY2019 96%, RY2020 97%, RY2021 98%, RY2022 98%, RY2023 98%, RY2024 98%, RY2025 98%, RY2026 95%, RY2027 96%. The RY2020 row is what those rows show. RMA applied the RY2021 table back to July 1, 2020 (RMA PM-20-064).
By Sigurd Lindquist, a Certified Crop Adviser (CCA) who owns a licensed crop insurance agency. This page sells nothing, asks for no contact details and sends no one to any agent. .