What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.
Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?
Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.
Your main crops
Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet
Wheat
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $3 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Wheat borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out about $1 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.
PLC only pays if wheat averages under $6.35 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Barley
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Barley borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if barley averages under $5.58 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Ask FSANo answer yet
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: ask your FSA office
Ask FSANo answer yet
FSA’s county average PLC yield is above the county benchmark yield, so there is no typical-farm answer. Ask your FSA office.
2027: ask your FSA office
Smaller crops here
Each has under 400 enrolled base acres in the whole county (FSA, program year 2025).
Dry peas
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $5 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. Dry peas borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if dry peas average under 13.14 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if dry peas average under 13.14 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out about $2 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if dry peas average under 13.14 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Canola
Either oneClose
They come out less than $1 apart per base acre.
PLC only pays if canola averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Either oneClose
They come out about $1 apart per base acre. Too small to matter.
PLC only pays if canola averages under 23.75 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Ask FSANo answer yet
A PLC yield that high is above the county benchmark yield, so this page cannot figure it. Ask your FSA office.
2027: ask your FSA office
Oats
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $13 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $13 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Oats borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if oats average under $3.05 a bushel for 2026.
2027: no 2027 price yet
Ask FSANo answer yet
A PLC yield that high is above the county benchmark yield, so this page cannot figure it. Ask your FSA office.
2027: ask your FSA office
Mustard seed
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $28 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Mustard seed borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if mustard seed averages under 27.31 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $28 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Mustard seed borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if mustard seed averages under 27.31 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $28 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Mustard seed borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if mustard seed averages under 27.31 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Small chickpeas
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $26 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Small chickpeas borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if small chickpeas average under 26.05 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $39 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Small chickpeas borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if small chickpeas average under 26.05 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $51 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Small chickpeas borrow corn’s price swings, so they stop at Leans.
PLC only pays if small chickpeas average under 26.05 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Corn
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: close, either one
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: close, either one
ARC-COLeans
ARC-CO comes out about $7 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. PLC did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran.
PLC only pays if corn averages under $4.42 a bushel for 2026.
2027: close, either one
Deadlines
Dec 112026 signup ends Dec 11, 2026.
Nov 2 to Mar 152027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
Skip itDo nothing for 2026 and that farm gets no 2026 payment.
SignEvery owner and operator on the farm signs.
BringBring the farm’s FSA-156EZ. It lists the base acres and PLC yields.
2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Garfield County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves.
Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026: wheat $6.30, barley $5.70, oats $3.35, corn $4.70; FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: dry peas $0.1120, canola $0.2450, mustard seed $0.3170, small chickpeas $0.1670). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average
price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Wheat, barley, dry peas, canola, oats, mustard seed, small chickpeas have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.
Two price starts. Corn: USDA $4.70; futures-based $4.97 (Dec '26 October average so far, $5.01 over 5 of 22 trading days, × 0.991, the 2015 to 2025 average of final price / October futures). Here, the typical farm’s answer at that start: neither expected to pay, against leans ARC-CO at USDA’s start. Where the two disagree on which program leads, or on a clear pick, a clear pick drops to Leans.
2027. Corn and soybeans start from futures: corn $4.91 (Dec 2027 corn futures $5.12 (Oct 9, 2026) × 0.959, the 2011 to 2025 average of final MYA / February futures). Each scenario year also moves the county yield the way it moved that year. Wheat, barley, dry peas, canola, oats: no 2027 price outlook we can check against past years, so no 2027 answer. Mustard seed, small chickpeas wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (wheat 61.1 bu; barley 65.3 bu; dry peas 1,480.3 lb; canola 1,361.4 lb; oats 61.8 bu; mustard seed 697.9 lb; small chickpeas 1,063.0 lb; corn 37.0 bu) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the
county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it.Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error
(2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in
at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop
Practice
Year
PLC
ARC-CO
Answer
Wheat
All practices
2026
$11.26
$12.30
Either one
Wheat
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Barley
All practices
2026
none
none
Ask FSA
Barley
All practices
2027
none
none
Ask FSA
Dry peas
All practices
2026
$24.41
$26.23
Either one
Dry peas
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Canola
All practices
2026
$2.68
$1.31
Either one
Canola
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Oats
All practices
2026
$0
$13.47
Leans ARC-CO
Oats
All practices
2027
none
none
No 2027 price yet
Mustard seed
All practices
2026
$0
$27.50
Leans ARC-CO
Mustard seed
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Small chickpeas
All practices
2026
$84.48
$45.91
Leans PLC
Small chickpeas
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Corn
All practices
2026
$0.26
$6.82
Leans ARC-CO
Corn
All practices
2027
$3.16
$22.97
Either one
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
Wheat 2026 in Garfield County: Close, either one
All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.04 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $11.26 PLC vs $12.30 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $136.59 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $57.34 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $11.26 and ARC-CO $12.30 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 61.1 bu (program year 2025) and the official 80.54 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled wheat base in this county: 61.1 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)80.54 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.98
Benchmark revenue$562.17/ac
Guarantee (90%)$505.95/ac
Max payment (12%)$67.46/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$57.34
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 92.33 (dropped) · 2021: 55.6 (dropped) · 2022: 90.3 · 2023: 70.69 · 2024: 80.62 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 80.54 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($6.35/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 79.7 bu, reaching its cap below 69.1 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 80.54 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 48.3 bu
PLC pays more at $4.95 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.96 to $6.17. Both pay the same at $6.18. PLC pays more from $6.19 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
70% 56.4 bu
PLC pays more at $5.15 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.16 to $6.12. PLC pays more from $6.13 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
80% 64.4 bu
PLC pays more at $5.30 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.31 to $6.01. PLC pays more from $6.02 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
90% 72.5 bu
PLC pays more at $5.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $5.42 to $5.66. Both pay the same at $5.67. PLC pays more from $5.68 to $6.34. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
100% 80.5 bu
PLC pays more at $6.34 or lower. Neither pays at $6.35 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
71.90
$5.50
45.88
none
2022
77.97
$5.50
88.06
none
2023
74.26
$5.50
69.01
none
2024
79.45
$6.21
79.50
none
2025
75.49
$6.98
71.46
$63.23
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Barley 2026 in Garfield County: ARC-CO benchmark and break-even
All practices: no typical-farm verdict. FSA’s average PLC yield for the county (65.3 bu) covers all practices and is above this benchmark (59.86 bu), so it does not describe a typical farm here. Run your own PLC yield below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled barley base in this county: 65.3 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)59.86 bu
Benchmark price 2026$6.43
Benchmark revenue$384.90/ac
Guarantee (90%)$346.41/ac
Max payment (12%)$46.19/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$39.26
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 71.54 · 2021: 49.05 (dropped) · 2022: 55.74 · 2023: 52.31 · 2024: 74.25 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 59.86 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($5.58/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 62.1 bu, reaching its cap below 53.8 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 59.86 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 35.9 bu
PLC pays more at $4.29 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.30 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
70% 41.9 bu
PLC pays more at $4.47 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.48 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
80% 47.9 bu
PLC pays more at $4.61 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.62 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
90% 53.9 bu
PLC pays more at $4.72 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.73 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
100% 59.9 bu
PLC pays more at $4.80 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $4.81 to $5.78. Neither pays at $5.79 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
62.92
$4.95
14.94
$31.15
2022
68.16
$4.95
54.26
none
2023
62.79
$4.95
44.78
none
2024
60.97
$5.07
73.51
none
2025
54.82
$6.10
53.32
$9.83
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Dry peas 2026 in Garfield County: Close, either one
All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.82 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $24.41 PLC vs $26.23 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 4 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 7).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.1314, up to $78.89 per base acre at the $0.0687 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $29.46 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 11 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.1120, PLC is expected to pay $24.41 and ARC-CO $26.23 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 1,480.3 lb (program year 2025) and the official 1,934.43 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled dry peas base in this county: 1,480.3 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)1,934.43 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.1493
Benchmark revenue$288.81/ac
Guarantee (90%)$259.93/ac
Max payment (12%)$34.66/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$29.46
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 3433.55 (dropped) · 2021: 1280 (dropped) · 2022: 2799.95 · 2023: 1280 · 2024: 1723.35 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,934.43 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.1314/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 1,978.2 lb, reaching its cap below 1,714.4 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,934.43 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 1,160.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1015 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1016 to $0.1343. Neither pays at $0.1344 or higher.
70% 1,354.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1058 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1059 to $0.1343. Neither pays at $0.1344 or higher.
80% 1,547.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1089 or lower. Both pay the same at $0.1090. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1091 to $0.1343. Neither pays at $0.1344 or higher.
90% 1,741.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1114 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1115 to $0.1343. Neither pays at $0.1344 or higher.
100% 1,934.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1134 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1135 to $0.1343. Neither pays at $0.1344 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
2,025.25
$0.1127
1072.82
$22.50
2022
2,196.25
$0.1100
2799.95
none
2023
2,086.21
$0.1127
855.20
$23.51
2024
2,416.53
$0.1267
1723.35
$28.93
2025
2,069.19
$0.1477
1476.47
$36.67
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Close, either one: about $1.36 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $2.68 PLC vs $1.31 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 4 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $146.38 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $38.46 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 3 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2450, PLC is expected to pay $2.68 and ARC-CO $1.31 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 1,361.4 lb (program year 2025) and the official 1,453.05 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled canola base in this county: 1,361.4 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)1,453.05 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.2595
Benchmark revenue$377.07/ac
Guarantee (90%)$339.36/ac
Max payment (12%)$45.25/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$38.46
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 2523.42 (dropped) · 2021: 1001.17 (dropped) · 2022: 1595.68 · 2023: 1455.52 · 2024: 1307.95 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,453.05 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2375/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 1,428.9 lb, reaching its cap below 1,238.4 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,453.05 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 871.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1855 or lower. Both pay the same at $0.1856. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1857 to $0.2276. PLC pays more from $0.2277 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
70% 1,017.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1930 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1931 to $0.2243. PLC pays more from $0.2244 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
80% 1,162.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1985 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1986 to $0.2177. PLC pays more from $0.2178 to $0.2374. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
90% 1,307.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
100% 1,453.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2374 or lower. Neither pays at $0.2375 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2022
1,908.06
$0.2015
1595.68
none
2023
1,908.06
$0.2015
1455.52
none
2024
1,838.36
$0.2337
1307.95
$42.96
2025
1,641.43
$0.2595
1374.36
$51.11
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $13.47 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $13.47 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $44.65 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $26.18 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $13.47 per base acre.
2027: No 2027 price yet: there is no 2027 price outlook for this crop we can check against past years, so no call. Type a price in the calculator to see the dollars. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 61.8 bu (program year 2025) and the official 65.14 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled oats base in this county: 61.8 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)65.14 bu
Benchmark price 2026$3.94
Benchmark revenue$256.65/ac
Guarantee (90%)$230.99/ac
Max payment (12%)$30.80/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$26.18
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 87.99 (dropped) · 2021: 79.41 · 2022: 64 · 2023: 52 · 2024: 48.8 (dropped) (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 65.14 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($3.05/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 75.7 bu, reaching its cap below 65.6 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 65.14 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 39.1 bu
PLC pays more at $2.26 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.27 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
70% 45.6 bu
PLC pays more at $2.37 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.38 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
80% 52.1 bu
PLC pays more at $2.45 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.46 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
90% 58.6 bu
PLC pays more at $2.52 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.53 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
100% 65.1 bu
PLC pays more at $2.57 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $2.58 to $3.54. Neither pays at $3.55 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2021
70.00
$2.55
79.41
none
2022
70.66
$2.67
64.00
none
2023
76.80
$2.75
52.00
none
2024
77.13
$3.38
43.36
$26.07
2025
77.13
$3.84
80.00
$8.16
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Mustard seed 2026 in Garfield County: Leans ARC-CO
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $27.50 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $27.50 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2731, up to $96.16 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $36.63 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.3170, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $27.50 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 697.9 lb (program year 2025) and the official 912.11 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled mustard seed base in this county: 697.9 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)912.11 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.3937
Benchmark revenue$359.10/ac
Guarantee (90%)$323.19/ac
Max payment (12%)$43.09/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$36.63
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1344.54 (dropped) · 2021: 580 (dropped) · 2022: 1180.2 · 2023: 788.07 · 2024: 768.06 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 912.11 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2731/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 1,183.4 lb, reaching its cap below 1,025.6 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 912.11 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 547.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1943 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1944 to $0.3543. Neither pays at $0.3544 or higher.
70% 638.5 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2055 or lower. Both pay the same at $0.2056. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2057 to $0.3543. Neither pays at $0.3544 or higher.
80% 729.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2140 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2141 to $0.3543. Neither pays at $0.3544 or higher.
90% 820.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2205 or lower. Both pay the same at $0.2206. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2207 to $0.3543. Neither pays at $0.3544 or higher.
100% 912.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2258 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2259 to $0.3543. Neither pays at $0.3544 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2022
1,261.18
$0.2850
1180.20
none
2023
1,183.52
$0.2850
788.07
none
2024
1,211.58
$0.2880
768.06
none
2025
1,026.09
$0.3350
436.73
$41.25
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Small chickpeas 2026 in Garfield County: Leans PLC
All practices, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $38.57 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $84.48 PLC vs $45.91 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 11 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2605, up to $135.98 per base acre at the $0.1100 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $45.91 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 11 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.1670, PLC is expected to pay $84.48 and ARC-CO $45.91 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 1,063.0 lb (program year 2025) and the official 1,467.09 lb benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled small chickpeas base in this county: 1,063.0 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)1,467.09 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.3068
Benchmark revenue$450.10/ac
Guarantee (90%)$405.09/ac
Max payment (12%)$54.01/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$45.91
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 1678.59 · 2021: 1224 (dropped) · 2022: 1728.34 (dropped) · 2023: 1297.73 · 2024: 1424.95 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 1,467.09 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.2605/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 1,555.1 lb, reaching its cap below 1,347.7 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 1,467.09 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 880.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.1991 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.1992 to $0.2761. Neither pays at $0.2762 or higher.
70% 1,027.0 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2079 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2080 to $0.2761. Neither pays at $0.2762 or higher.
80% 1,173.7 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2144 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2145 to $0.2761. Neither pays at $0.2762 or higher.
90% 1,320.4 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2195 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2196 to $0.2761. Neither pays at $0.2762 or higher.
100% 1,467.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.2236 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.2237 to $0.2761. Neither pays at $0.2762 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2022
1,746.98
$0.2220
1728.34
none
2023
1,570.31
$0.2237
1297.73
none
2024
1,657.09
$0.2509
1424.95
none
2025
1,513.55
$0.3043
1131.21
$55.27
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Corn 2026 in Garfield County: Leans ARC-CO
All practices, 2026: Leans ARC-CO: expected about $6.55 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.26 PLC vs $6.82 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4).
PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $62.90 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $121.61 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.26 and ARC-CO $6.82 per base acre.
2027: Close, either one: about $19.80 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $3.16 PLC vs $22.97 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 10 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 2). The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 37.0 bu (program year 2025) and the official 237.03 bu benchmark. County yields from this county’s own FSA yields. Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled corn base in this county: 37.0 bu (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)237.03 bu
Benchmark price 2026$5.03
Benchmark revenue$1,192.26/ac
Guarantee (90%)$1,073.03/ac
Max payment (12%)$143.07/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$121.61
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 229 · 2021: 224.53 (dropped) · 2022: 237.4 · 2023: 250.2 (dropped) · 2024: 244.7 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 237.03 bu.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($4.42/bu), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 242.8 bu, reaching its cap below 210.4 bu.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 237.03 bu county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 142.2 bu
PLC pays more at $3.41 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.42 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
70% 165.9 bu
PLC pays more at $3.55 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.56 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
80% 189.6 bu
PLC pays more at $3.66 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.67 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
90% 213.3 bu
PLC pays more at $3.74 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.75 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
100% 237.0 bu
PLC pays more at $3.81 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $3.82 to $4.52. Neither pays at $4.53 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2022
211.78
$3.70
237.40
none
2023
213.63
$3.98
250.20
none
2024
223.96
$4.85
244.70
none
2025
230.31
$5.03
242.28
$34.73
Program year; benchmark yield in bu/acre; benchmark price $/bu; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Nothing from FSA here for soybeans. Ask the county FSA office for “the 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yield for my county, crop and practice (irrigated or non-irrigated)”, or look it up in FSA’s program data (file: ARC-CO benchmark yields and revenues, program year 2026). Then type it into the calculator.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
Questions about Garfield County
Should I pick ARC or PLC for wheat in Garfield County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $1.04 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $11.26 PLC vs $12.30 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 1 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 5). PLC pays on any season-average price below $6.35, up to $136.59 per base acre at the $3.72 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $57.34 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 6 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $6.30, PLC is expected to pay $11.26 and ARC-CO $12.30 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for wheat in Garfield County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for wheat in Garfield County, Washington is 80.54 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.98 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for barley in Garfield County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for barley in Garfield County, Washington is 59.86 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $6.43 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for dry peas in Garfield County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $1.82 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $24.41 PLC vs $26.23 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 4 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 7). PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.1314, up to $78.89 per base acre at the $0.0687 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $29.46 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 11 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.1120, PLC is expected to pay $24.41 and ARC-CO $26.23 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for dry peas in Garfield County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for dry peas in Garfield County, Washington is 1,934.43 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.1493 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for canola in Garfield County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Close, either one: about $1.36 apart, too small or too uncertain to call (expected $2.68 PLC vs $1.31 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 4 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2375, up to $146.38 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $38.46 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 3 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.2450, PLC is expected to pay $2.68 and ARC-CO $1.31 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for canola in Garfield County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for canola in Garfield County, Washington is 1,453.05 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.2595 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for oats in Garfield County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $13.47 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $13.47 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $3.05, up to $44.65 per base acre at the $2.20 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $26.18 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $3.35, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $13.47 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for oats in Garfield County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for oats in Garfield County, Washington is 65.14 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $3.94 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for mustard seed in Garfield County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $27.50 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0 PLC vs $27.50 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 9). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2731, up to $96.16 per base acre at the $0.1110 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $36.63 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 9 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.3170, PLC is expected to pay $0 and ARC-CO $27.50 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for mustard seed in Garfield County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for mustard seed in Garfield County, Washington is 912.11 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.3937 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for small chickpeas in Garfield County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans PLC: expected about $38.57 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $84.48 PLC vs $45.91 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 11 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.2605, up to $135.98 per base acre at the $0.1100 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $45.91 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 11 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.1670, PLC is expected to pay $84.48 and ARC-CO $45.91 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for small chickpeas in Garfield County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for small chickpeas in Garfield County, Washington is 1,467.09 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.3068 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.
Should I pick ARC or PLC for corn in Garfield County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans ARC-CO: expected about $6.55 more per base acre; PLC did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $0.26 PLC vs $6.82 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 0 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 4). PLC pays on any season-average price below $4.42, up to $62.90 per base acre at the $2.42 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $121.61 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 4 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $4.70, PLC is expected to pay $0.26 and ARC-CO $6.82 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for corn in Garfield County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for corn in Garfield County, Washington is 237.03 bu (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $5.03 per bushel. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.