What pays more on your base acres for a typical farm here, crop by crop. 2026 signup ends Dec 11.
Is your farm’s PLC yield lower, about the same, or higher than most farms here?
Your PLC yield is on your farm’s FSA-156EZ. Not sure? Leave it on About the same.
Your crops
Clear pickLeansCloseNo answer yet
Seed cotton
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $26 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $31 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
PLCLeans
PLC comes out about $36 more per base acre, but that swings from year to year. ARC-CO did not come out ahead in any of the 11 price years we ran. Seed cotton borrows corn’s price swings, so it stops at Leans.
PLC only pays if seed cotton averages under 42 cents a pound for 2026.
2027: waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 price
Deadlines
Dec 112026 signup ends Dec 11, 2026.
Nov 2 to Mar 152027 signup runs Nov 2, 2026 to Mar 15, 2027.
Skip itDo nothing for 2026 and that farm gets no 2026 payment.
SignEvery owner and operator on the farm signs.
BringBring the farm’s FSA-156EZ. It lists the base acres and PLC yields.
2026. The 2026 crop is mostly harvested, so each scenario uses a normal Greenlee County crop (FSA’s 2026 benchmark yield) and only the price moves.
Prices start from USDA’s projected 2026/27 season-average prices (FSA table of Sep 11, 2026: seed cotton $0.4114). Around that price we ran each past year with a final USDA price: how far that year’s final season-average
price ended from October futures, for corn and soybeans. Seed cotton have no October futures history of their own, so they borrow corn’s October swings (wheat its own price changes, scaled to corn’s size) and stop at Leans.
2027. Seed cotton wait on USDA’s closing 2025 price, which sets the 2027 reference price.
Typical farm. FSA’s county average PLC yield (seed cotton 2,277.2 lb) and FSA’s official benchmark. “Lower” and “Higher” mean 15% under or over the
county average. Payments are per base acre and count FSA’s 85% payment acres, before sequestration and payment limits.
How we call it.Clear pick when one program averages at least $2.00 more per base acre, the gap is more than t times its standard error
(2.26 for 10 years, 2.23 for 11), and it paid more in at least 3 of the years. Leans when the gap is at least $3.00 and one standard error, and it paid more in
at least 3 years. Close otherwise. When both round to $0: neither expected to pay.
Average payment per base acre over the scenario years, typical farm (about the same PLC yield).
Crop
Practice
Year
PLC
ARC-CO
Answer
Seed cotton
All practices
2026
$33.85
$2.54
Leans PLC
Seed cotton
All practices
2027
none
none
Wait for USDA
Sources. FSA 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yields (county file of Jan 16, 2026); FSA county average PLC yields, program year 2025; FSA price tables of Sep 11, 2026; USDA WASDE, Oct 9, 2026; CME futures: Dec 2026 corn and Nov 2026 soybean October average through Oct 8, 2026; Dec 2027 corn and Nov 2027 soybean close of Oct 9, 2026; USDA NASS season-average prices for closed marketing years; FSA ARC-CO county files, program years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (county yields and payments). Full method and back-test.
Seed cotton 2026 in Greenlee County: Leans PLC
FSA’s seed cotton price is its own weighted average of the upland cotton lint price and the cottonseed price. We use FSA’s seed cotton series as published and never build it from the lint price. All seed cotton counties.
All practices, 2026: Leans PLC: expected about $31.31 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $33.85 PLC vs $2.54 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings.
PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $232.27 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $141.21 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $33.85 and ARC-CO $2.54 per base acre.
2027: Waiting on USDA’s closing 2025 season-average price, which sets the 2027 reference price. The 2027 view uses FSA’s 2026 benchmark; FSA posts 2027 later.
For a typical farm: FSA’s county average PLC yield 2,277.2 lb (program year 2025) and the official 3,211.34 lb benchmark. County yields from the Arizona average for this crop and practice (the county has fewer than 8 years). Run your own numbers in the calculator below.
Average PLC yield on enrolled seed cotton base in this county: 2,277.2 lb (FSA, program year 2025). Your farm’s own is on the FSA-156EZ.
All practices: official 2026 ARC-CO benchmark
Benchmark yield (FSA)3,211.34 lb
Benchmark price 2026$0.4311
Benchmark revenue$1,384.41/ac
Guarantee (90%)$1,245.97/ac
Max payment (12%)$166.13/ac
Max per base acre (×85%)$141.21
FSA trend-adjusted county yields (county yield or 80% of T-yield): 2020: 3122.4 (dropped) · 2021: 3122.4 · 2022: 3688.92 (dropped) · 2023: 3243.53 · 2024: 3268.1 (struck: high and low). Middle three average: 3,211.34 lb.
At a season-average price equal to the 2026 effective reference price ($0.4200/lb), PLC pays nothing and ARC-CO pays when the
county yield comes in below 2,966.6 lb, reaching its cap below 2,571.0 lb.
PLC vs ARC-CO break-even at a 3,211.34 lb county yield, 2026 prices
PLC yield, % of your official benchmark
Which pays more, by season-average price
60% 1,926.8 lb
PLC pays more at $0.3337 or lower. ARC-CO pays more from $0.3338 to $0.3399. PLC pays more from $0.3400 to $0.4199. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
70% 2,247.9 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
80% 2,569.1 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
90% 2,890.2 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
100% 3,211.3 lb
PLC pays more at $0.4199 or lower. Neither pays at $0.4200 or higher.
FSA history, all practices
Year
Benchmark
Price
County yield
ARC-CO $/ac
2025
3,162.77
$0.4311
3457.99
$48.64
Program year; benchmark yield in lb/acre; benchmark price $/lb; actual county yield; ARC-CO payment rate per acre before the 85% factor. All from FSA’s files. Older program years use older windows and prices, so they are history, not this year’s benchmark.
Nothing from FSA here for corn or soybeans or wheat. Ask the county FSA office for “the 2026 ARC-CO benchmark yield for my county, crop and practice (irrigated or non-irrigated)”, or look it up in FSA’s program data (file: ARC-CO benchmark yields and revenues, program year 2026). Then type it into the calculator.
Break-even prices are per base acre with both programs on 85% of base and 2026 prices. Your PLC yield is on the FSA-156EZ.
Run every number for your farm
Run your farm’s numbers
Run each crop on each FSA farm number separately. The election is made crop by crop, farm by farm.
FSA has separate irrigated and non-irrigated benchmarks here. A farm with both is weighted by its historical irrigated percentage on FSA’s records, not by what you plant this year.
From the FSA-156EZ. Base acres are not what you plant; each farm number has its own base.
On the FSA-156EZ for the farm. Each farm has its own.
Fills in from FSA’s official county file when we have it. You can type the number your county office gives you.
County average, not your farm. A normal year often comes in a bit above this.
USDA national season-average price for the marketing year, not your local cash price.
Goes on the printout and keeps each farm’s numbers apart on this device.
Loading FSA and USDA numbers for the calculator.
Questions about Greenlee County
Should I pick ARC or PLC for seed cotton in Greenlee County for 2026?
For a typical farm (all practices): Leans PLC: expected about $31.31 more per base acre; ARC-CO did not pay more in any of the 11 years, but the gap is within the normal swing (expected $33.85 PLC vs $2.54 ARC-CO per base acre; PLC paid more in 8 of 11 past-year scenarios, ARC-CO in 0). Capped at Leans: this crop borrows corn’s price swings. PLC pays on any season-average price below $0.4200, up to $232.27 per base acre at the $0.3000 loan rate, so it protects against a deep price drop. ARC-CO is capped at $141.21 per base acre but also pays when the county’s yield is short; it paid something in 2 of the 11 past-year scenarios. With prices centered at $0.4114, PLC is expected to pay $33.85 and ARC-CO $2.54 per base acre. Run your own PLC yield and base acres; the answer can change.
What is the ARC-CO benchmark yield for seed cotton in Greenlee County?
FSA's official 2026 benchmark yield for seed cotton in Greenlee County, Arizona is 3,211.34 lb (all practices). The 2026 benchmark price is $0.4311 per pound. FSA has not posted the 2027 benchmark.