AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #210 · ARCHIVE
Friday, October 9, 2026
↔ Mixed

Crude pulls back from the Hormuz run as grains sit quiet

Corn is at $5.01 overnight, basically flat, holding the line it has worked to defend since getting back over $5 on Monday. Crude eased 1.0% to $90.60 after a 4.9% run Wednesday, with Brent still above $100 on Hormuz tanker disruptions, ongoing since July and flaring again this week.

Harvest price clock

Corn harvest price so far: $5.01 vs $4.62 projected (+8.4%), 6 of 22 trading days in.

Soybeans harvest price so far: $12.89 vs $11.09 projected (+16.2%), 5 of 22 trading days in.

USDA RMA, as of Oct 8. Oct 1-31 window, most states. Harvest price tracker →

Quotes as of 5:46 AM CT Fri · change vs Thu close · CME futures, delayed
THE NUMBER
10 of 13
Corn Belt states short on storage
Farmdoc says the Belt can hold this year's carry-in and harvest overall, but ten of thirteen states fall short locally.
Corn holds the round number againLOW CONVICTION
  • Corn is at $5.01 overnight, up half a cent, the fourth straight session parked right at $5.
  • Farmdoc's new storage study says the Corn Belt can hold this year's crop in aggregate, but ten of thirteen states are short on local space.
A flat board can still hide real local basis pressure at harvest.
Beans firm, meal leads the complexMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • Soybeans are at $12.94 overnight, up five cents, with meal up 1.5% to $366.00 after Wednesday's bigger 3.5% jump.
  • Soybean oil added 0.3% to $67.62, a small bounce after Wednesday's 3.1% drop tied to the crude and biofuel policy shift.
Meal is still doing more work than beans or oil in this rally.
Crude gives a little backLOW CONVICTION
  • WTI is at $90.60 overnight, down 1.0%, pulling back after Wednesday's 4.9% jump on a fresh tanker hit near Qatar.
  • Brent is still above $100, with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a two-month low on the ongoing Iran-Hormuz cycle, a pattern that has built and unwound twice since spring.
Diesel relief from China matters more to fall fieldwork costs than the crude headline.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • OngoingCorn back under $5.00 would say harvest supply is winning again after four days at the line.
  • OngoingAnother Hormuz tanker incident could push WTI back toward $95; a calm weekend could ease it toward $88.
  • Monday 3:00 p.m. CTCrop Progress report, the next read on harvest pace against storage capacity limits.
OUTSIDE THE PITNot moving prices today, but worth knowing.
POLICY
ARC and PLC payments set a record for 2025 crop year
USDA says farm safety net programs will pay out $13.8 billion for 2025, the largest gross payout in the programs' history.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com. I read everything.
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CME/CBOT locked price table, farmdocdaily.illinois.edu, oilprice.com, feedstuffs.com, world-grain.com · Compiled 5:47 AM CT Fri
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