AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #207 — ARCHIVE
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Tuesday, October 6, 2026
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CORN HOLDS $5 AS GRAIN STOCKS COME IN HEAVY

BOT CALL

Bot call, Oct 5 close, 4 weeks out: corn $4.97½ down, soybeans $12.81 down, Chicago wheat $6.91½ up, KC wheat $7.42¼ down. Backtest: no edge.

From the AGSIST prediction bot, a fixed statistical rule graded by code. Not advice. Record and method →

Corn closed $5.00, up 3 cents, even after USDA's Grain Stocks report put old-crop corn bushels at 2.10 billion, up 35% from a year ago. Soybeans added a nickel to $12.86 on a 3% stocks draw the other direction.

Quotes as of 5:56 AM CT Tue · change vs Mon close · CME futures, delayed
THE NUMBER
35%
year-over-year jump in Sept 1 corn stocks
USDA's Grain Stocks report showed 2.10 billion old-crop corn bushels on hand, up 35% from last year; soybean stocks fell 3% the same day.
DAILY QUOTE

“You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.”

Wayne Gretzky
Corn Shrugs Off Heavy StocksMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • Corn held $5.00, up 3 cents, even though USDA's Grain Stocks report put old-crop bushels 35% above last year.
  • That's a bearish number on paper, but the close didn't blink, basis at seasonal lows is already pricing the big old-crop pile.
The market already knew the corn was there; the close says so.
Beans Firm On Tighter StocksMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • Soybeans gained a nickel to $12.86, helped by a Sept 1 stocks figure down 3% from a year ago, the opposite signal from corn.
  • Soybean meal added 0.3% to $345.90, soybean oil was flat at $68.94, so beans led the complex on their own number, not on products.
Tighter bean stocks against a bigger corn pile is the whole spread story today.
Cattle Soft, Crude Breaks LowerLOW CONVICTION
  • Live cattle slipped 0.7% to $217.25 and feeders eased 0.2% to $333.85, both still digesting a beef cutout that's been drifting lower.
  • Crude dropped sharply, down 2.4% to $87.26, even as Gulf exports recovered to 81% of pre-war levels, more barrels moving, not fewer.
Diesel isn't following crude down, and combines still need diesel more than crude.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • Thursday 7:30 AM CTExport sales; corn over 1.2 MMT keeps today's stocks number from mattering much longer.
  • OngoingHarvest pace in the rain; corn below $5.00 opens the door if combines stay parked and basis widens.
  • Diesel cash marketWatch whether $6.32 diesel holds even if crude keeps breaking below $87.26.
OUTSIDE THE PITNot moving prices today, but worth knowing.
MACRO
Gulf oil exports back near pre-war pace
Persian Gulf crude exports hit 81% of pre-war levels last month even as Hormuz traffic stays thin, Standard Chartered says, part of why crude broke lower today.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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CME settlement prices, USDA NASS Grain Stocks report, feedstuffs.com, agweb.com, thefencepost.com, oilprice.com, farmpolicynews.illinois.edu · Compiled 5:57 AM CT Tue
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