AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #206 — ARCHIVE
↔ Mixed
Monday, October 5, 2026
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CORN BACK ABOVE $5 AS RAIN KEEPS COMBINES PARKED

!Overnight Surprise: Soybean Oil UP 2.7%

Corn closed $5.00, up 4 and a quarter cents, clawing back the round number it lost Friday while El Nino rain keeps the Belt's combines sitting in the shed. Soybean oil ran 2.7% on the back of soymeal's firm tone, the two products pulling in the same direction for once.

Quotes as of 5:56 AM CT Mon · change vs Fri close · CME futures, delayed
THE NUMBER
20-40
cent weekly decline range cited Friday, now reversing
AgWeb flagged corn and beans down 20 to 40 cents on the week Friday; Monday's bounce claws back roughly a dime of that on harvest-delay buying alone.
DAILY QUOTE

“No one has ever drowned in sweat.”

Lou Holtz
Corn Reclaims The Round NumberMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • Corn closed $5.00, up 4 and a quarter cents, one session after AgWeb's Friday headline had the whole complex down 20 to 40 cents for the week.
  • AgWeb's record El Nino rain story is the driver: combines parked, farmers can't deliver, and that's bullish basis even while board direction stays shaky.
Rain is doing what demand news hasn't: putting a floor under the board.
Soy Complex Leads On ProductsMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • Soybean oil gained 2.7% to $68.27, the day's biggest mover and flagged overnight, with soymeal firm too at $344.30, up 0.8%.
  • Beans themselves lagged the products, up just six and three-quarters cents to $12.89, so this is a crush story, not a bean-demand story.
Products leading beans says crush margins, not export demand, are driving today.
Cattle Soft, Feeders Give More BackLOW CONVICTION
  • Live cattle eased 0.2% to $218.85 and feeders dropped 1.4% to $334.62, continuing the pullback from the historic summer run.
  • The screwworm border story is still the backdrop. Mexican feeder imports stay closed until the Aug 24 phased reopening at Douglas, now well behind us, so today's softness isn't a supply-return story.
Feeders are fading faster than fed cattle, a spread worth tracking into winter placements.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • This weekHarvest pace reports; continued rain delays keep basis firm even if board direction stays mixed.
  • OngoingCorn above $5.00 is the line; a close back below reopens Friday's selloff.
  • Thursday 7:30 AM CTExport sales; soybeans under 300K MT would undercut today's product-led strength.
OUTSIDE THE PITNot moving prices today, but worth knowing.
POLICY
Farm Bureau Presses Trump On Diesel Relief
Zippy Duvall asked Trump to suspend the federal highway diesel tax as fuel costs squeeze harvest-season operating margins right when combines need the fuel most.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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CME/CBOT settlement data, USDA Crop Progress and WASDE calendar, AgWeb, World Grain, Feedstuffs, Beef Magazine, Drovers, Oilprice.com, Agri-Pulse, farmdoc daily · Compiled 5:57 AM CT Mon
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