AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #201 — ARCHIVE
↔ Mixed
Wednesday, September 30, 2026
● Sponsor this slot →

GRAINS TICK HIGHER AHEAD OF STOCKS DATA AT 11 CT

THE ACTION

Nothing to do at $5.25 corn ahead of Grain Stocks; a settle above $5.29 on the data is the first reason to move.

Corn's up a quarter-cent shy of $5.25, beans up a nickel-plus to $13.03, and none of it means much with Quarterly Grain Stocks landing at 11 CT. Nobody's positioning hard into a report that could move old-crop supply pictures either way. Every bushel priced this morning got priced without knowing what USDA knows.

Quotes as of 5:59 AM CT Wed · change vs Tue close · CME futures, delayed
THE NUMBER
7.3%
projected 2026 cow culling rate
Cow slaughter is down 40% since 2022, the tightest culling rate on record, and it's the real floor under the cattle cycle, not the daily price tick.
DAILY QUOTE

“Your most unhappy customers are your greatest source of learning.”

Bill Gates
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL PLAYED OUT
Called crude down toward $91.00 ($92.12 when the call was made). It closed at $90.38.
Crude broke through $91 as called, settling $90.38 on Trump's no-sanctions-relief line on Iran; the down call played out clean.
Grains Wait On StocksLOW CONVICTION
  • Corn ticked up a quarter-cent to $5.25 and beans firmed a nickel-plus to $13.03, both sitting near the top of their 52-week range with nobody willing to lean hard before 11 CT.
  • Feedstuffs called it right this morning: prices mixed ahead of Wednesday's hotly anticipated USDA report, and that's exactly what the tape looks like.
Positioning, not conviction; the real move waits for the report.
Cattle Cycle Turns, SlowlyMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • Live cattle slipped 0.3% to $217.28 while feeders firmed 0.4% to $333.77, the spread still favoring the feeder side of the trade.
  • Beef Magazine's read on the cycle matters more than today's tick: cow slaughter is down 40% since 2022, a projected record-low 7.3% culling rate for 2026.
The herd rebuild is the multi-year story; today's tick is noise on top of it.
Crude Holds The Iran BidLOW CONVICTION
  • WTI added 0.6% to $90.38 after Trump ruled out easing Iran sanctions, the headline that's kept a floor under the barrel since Tuesday's pullback.
  • JPMorgan says Middle East flows are almost fully recovered near 17.5 million barrels a day, which argues against the fear premium even as the price holds it.
Supply data and fear headlines are pulling crude in opposite directions again.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • 11:00 AM CT todayQuarterly Grain Stocks; a bearish corn stocks number pressures $5.25, a tight number lifts it.
  • Thursday 7:30 AM CTWeekly Export Sales; beans need over 1.5 MMT to hold this week's bid above $13.00.
  • OngoingIran sanctions headlines; any easing talk knocks crude off its $90.38 floor fast.
OUTSIDE THE PITNot moving prices today, but worth knowing.
MACRO
Cow-calf profits into 2027 hinge on 7 drivers
CattleFax flags feed cost, packer margin, and herd rebuild pace as the levers that decide 2027 returns, worth a look before you pencil next year's budget.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
$Your local elevator bids →
Know a farmer who’d want this?
Forward this briefing. Or new here? Subscribe in one tap.
Subscribe →
Share
USDA, CME/CBOT settlement data, feedstuffs.com, oilprice.com, beefmagazine.com, drovers.com, thefencepost.com · Compiled 6:00 AM CT Wed
Today's Briefing →
Browse All Briefings →