AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #200 — ARCHIVE
↔ Mixed
Tuesday, September 29, 2026
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CRUDE PULLS BACK 2.1% AS YANBU REOPENS

THE ACTION

Diesel buyers: WTI at $92.12 is the cheapest print in three sessions; lock the next fuel load now before any bounce back to $94.

WTI settled $92.12, down 2.1%, the first real give-back after two days running toward $96 on Iran-Hormuz fear. Saudi Arabia just restarted loadings at Yanbu on the Red Sea after the East-West pipeline came back partial, and that's a supply story beating a fear story today.

Quotes as of 5:55 AM CT Tue · change vs Mon close · CME futures, delayed
THE NUMBER
5.3
million tons, China September LNG imports
China's LNG imports are headed for a second straight monthly drop on high prices tied to the Mideast war, a demand-side crack in the energy fear trade.
DAILY QUOTE

“I am entirely a farmer, soul and body, never scarcely admitting a sentiment on any other subject.”

Thomas Jefferson
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T
Called crude up toward $98.50 ($96.13 when the call was made). It closed at $92.12.
Crude closed $92.12, down 2.1% and well under the $98.50 call; Yanbu supply news beat the Hormuz fear trade.
Crude Gives Back The Fear PremiumMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • WTI fell 2.1% to $92.12, unwinding a chunk of the run toward $96 that Iran-Hormuz headlines built the last two sessions.
  • Saudi Arabia just restarted crude loadings at Yanbu on the Red Sea after the East-West pipeline resumed partial service, a real supply fact beating a fear headline.
Supply news is finally out-trading the Iran headlines; the fear premium is leaking.
Grains Drift On Empty China WiresLOW CONVICTION
  • Corn eased 0.3% to $5.22, beans slipped a penny and a half to $12.87, wheat dropped 0.8% to $6.83; nothing new from China to trade.
  • Feedstuffs called it straight: lack of trade headlines sent grain prices eroding lower Monday, and Tuesday didn't fix that.
No China purchase news means the board drifts on its own weight, not demand.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • Thursday 7:30 AM CTWeekly export sales; beans under 300K MT keeps the drift alive with no China news to fight it.
  • OngoingWTI below $91.00 confirms the Yanbu unwind is real; a bounce back above $94 says the Hormuz trade isn't done.
  • This weekUSMCA Tri-National talks in Calgary; any friction on ag trade language could jolt grain basis.
OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.
POLICY
Kansas Meatpacking Feels Immigration Raid Disruption
Industry groups say raids in Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma are pulling workers off shifts, a labor-supply hit that shows up in packer throughput before it shows up in the box.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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CME/CBOT locked settlement prices; oilprice.com; feedstuffs.com; beefmagazine.com; agri-pulse.com; farmpolicynews.illinois.edu · Compiled 5:56 AM CT Tue
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