AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #199 — ARCHIVE
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Monday, September 28, 2026
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CRUDE RUNS TO $96 AS BEANS SLIP AGAIN

THE ACTION

Diesel-dependent harvest budgets: crude above $96.13 and running, lock fuel needs now rather than wait for a pullback that may not come.

Crude added 2.3% to $96.13 on Iran war-fear headlines out of the UN General Assembly, the same Hormuz cycle that's flared and cooled twice since April, and diesel-hungry harvest crews are the ones who pay for it.

Quotes as of 6:10 AM CT Mon · change vs Fri close · CME futures, delayed
THE NUMBER
12.8 million
barrels per day, Middle East crude exports
Kpler data show Mideast exports rebounded to a fresh high this month, Saudi flows redirected east, undercutting the case that Hormuz risk is actually choking supply.
DAILY QUOTE

“The only thing new in the world is the history you do not know.”

Harry S. Truman
Crude Runs On Iran FearMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • WTI added 2.3% to $96.13 after President Trump rejected Iran's UN peace proposal, reviving the same Hormuz risk that gained and deflated twice since April.
  • Kpler's 12.8 million bpd Mideast export number says the oil is still moving, this is a headline trade, not a supply shock yet.
Fuel bills for corn harvest just got more expensive on a headline, not a barrel.
Beans Slip On Empty China NewsMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • Soybeans fell 1% to $12.98, meal down 1.1%, on what traders are calling "chipped China": no fresh purchase confirmations to offset the August 12 WASDE's bigger crop.
  • The $17 billion China purchase commitment hasn't produced a new headline in days, and the board is pricing that silence.
No news is bad news right now for beans; the rally needs a fresh China.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • Monday 3:00 PM CTCrop Progress; corn harvest pace above last year's mark says no yield drag story is building.
  • This weekCrude above $98.50 on fresh Iran headlines keeps the diesel premium in harvest budgets.
  • Any dayA confirmed China soybean purchase over 300K MT is the catalyst beans need to hold $12.98.
OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.
TRADE
Santa Teresa Livestock Port Reopens To Trade
Another Mexican port resumes cattle trade ahead of the Aug 24 screwworm-reopening framework's next phase, one more data point on returning feeder supply.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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CME/CBOT settlement data, oilprice.com, feedstuffs.com, drovers.com, USDA release calendar · Compiled 6:11 AM CT Mon
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