AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #204 — ARCHIVE
↔ Mixed WEEKEND EDITION
Saturday, October 3, 2026
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CRUDE SPLITS FROM DIESEL AS HARVEST STALLS IN THE RAIN

THE ACTION

Diesel buyers: lock the next 30 days of on-farm fuel now; WTI at $91.26 says cheap, physical diesel markets say otherwise.

WTI settled $91.26 Friday, down 1.5%, while Dated Brent physical barrels reportedly cleared $120 the same day as Hormuz tanker strikes (ongoing since the Iran war began) widen the crude-diesel split. That spread is why your diesel bill isn't following the crude headline down.

Quotes as of 8:44 PM CT Fri · change vs Thu close · CME futures, delayed
THE NUMBER
21
LNG cargoes exiting Hormuz in September
Highest monthly count since the Iran war began but still below pre-war levels, a sign the physical fuel system is strained, not fixed.
DAILY QUOTE

“Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment.”

Rita Mae Brown
Crude Down, Diesel Up, Same BarrelMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • WTI settled $91.26 Friday, off 1.5%, even as oilprice.com reports Dated Brent physical crude cleared $120 on droned Hormuz tankers and a G7 plan to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude reserves over four months.
Diesel, not crude, is the input cost farmers actually feel this fall.
Harvest Stalls, Basis Stays PutLOW CONVICTION
  • Corn eased to $4.97, down 0.4%, and beans ticked up a penny to $12.77 as AgWeb reports record El Nino rain is stalling harvest across the country.
  • Basis sits at seasonal lows per the seasonal calendar, and wet fields mean no fresh farmer selling to test it either direction.
No harvest pressure yet means basis has nothing forcing it off the floor.
THIS WEEK'S WATCH LIST
  • Monday 3:00 PM CTCrop Progress; harvest pace below last year's would confirm the El Nino delay is real, not noise.
  • This weekWatch Dated Brent versus WTI; a widening gap past $29 says the diesel squeeze is deepening, not easing.
  • OngoingFarm bill SNAP standoff in Senate Ag; no deal risk keeps safety-net payments in limbo past harvest.
WEEK AHEAD IN AGWhat's brewing for next week.
POLICY
Farm Bureau Asks Trump For Diesel Tax Relief
Farmers want the federal highway diesel tax suspended and dyed-diesel penalties waived while the fuel squeeze runs through harvest season.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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CME/CBOT settlement data, USDA, oilprice.com, AgWeb, Feedstuffs, Beef Magazine, Agri-Pulse, The Fence Post · Compiled 9:46 AM CT Sat
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