AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #197 — ARCHIVE
! Cautious
Friday, September 25, 2026
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GRAINS SIT STILL, CATTLE SLIP AGAIN BEFORE COF

THE ACTION

Live cattle at $218.95: nothing to do ahead of Cattle on Feed at 2:00 PM CT, but a close under $216.50 is the next sell.

Corn eased to $5.17, beans barely moved at $13.04, and neither market gave you a reason to do anything today. Cattle is the real story: down 0.8% to $218.95, a second straight session lower with USDA's Cattle on Feed still hours away at 2:00 PM CT.

Quotes as of 6:14 AM CT Fri · change vs Thu close · CME futures, delayed
THE NUMBER
9
commodity vessels crossing Hormuz Thursday
Reuters' regular count found just 9 carriers transited Thursday, eight of them outbound, the thinnest tally yet as the Iran-Hormuz cycle grinds on.
DAILY QUOTE

“Throw no stones into the well that gives you water.”

Danish Proverb
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T
Called crude up toward $94.50 ($93.19 when the call was made). It closed at $92.96.
Crude drifted to $92.96, not the $94.50 line; the Hormuz premium is still failing to build despite the thin traffic count.
Cattle Slips Again, Report LoomsMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • Live cattle gave back another 0.8% to $218.95, second straight lower close heading into today's Cattle on Feed at 2:00 PM CT.
  • Farm Bureau renewed its push against the extra 300,000 metric tons of beef import allowance Wednesday, a policy fight that hasn't moved cash cattle yet.
Two red closes ahead of data means the market is de-risking, not predicting the report.
Grains Stay ParkedLOW CONVICTION
  • Corn eased 0.4% to $5.17, beans barely ticked down to $13.04, both markets described by feedstuffs.com as quiet amid ongoing US-China trade talks.
  • No fresh confirmed China purchase news today to push beans, and no weather story to push corn; the calendar is empty and the tape knows it.
Quiet grains with US-China talks unresolved means the next move is news-driven, not chart-driven.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • 2:00 PM CT todayCattle on Feed; on-feed number above year-ago keeps the placement story alive, below tightens the setup further.
  • Monday 3:00 PM CTCrop Progress; corn harvest pace above 20% keeps the Belt on schedule for a normal wrap-up.
  • OngoingHormuz transit count; another single-digit day like Thursday's 9 vessels adds freight premium to diesel.
OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.
LOGISTICS
VLCC rates hit record $1.27 million a day
Ship-to-ship transfer capacity off Oman is maxed out after Saudi Arabia rerouted flows from Yanbu around Houthi attacks, pushing freight costs that eventually hit diesel.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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CME/CBOT settlement data, USDA, feedstuffs.com, oilprice.com, thefencepost.com, beefmagazine.com, world-grain.com, Reuters · Compiled 6:16 AM CT Fri
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