🫘 SOYBEAN MARKET DASHBOARD
Complete market intelligence: beans, meal, oil, crush, exports
📈 PRICES & CHARTS
−CONTRACT MONTHS
November (ZSX) = new crop. Also Aug (Q), Sep (U). Each contract = 5,000 bushels.
🥜 SOYBEAN COMPLEX (Meal + Oil)
−Understanding the Complex
Meal: ~48% of crush value. Primary protein feed ingredient for livestock/poultry.
Oil: ~32% of crush value. Food use + growing biodiesel/renewable diesel demand.
Crush Spread: (Meal value + Oil value) − Soybean cost = Processor margin.
🏭 CRUSH MARGINS
−Board Crush Formula:
(ZM × 0.022) + (ZL × 11) − ZS = Crush margin in ¢/bu
Strong margins = high soybean demand from processors.
🇨🇳 CHINA DEMAND
−China buys 60%+ of globally traded soybeans. Chinese hog herd recovery, crush margins, and government policy drive their import pace. Watch daily purchases closely.
🌎 SOUTH AMERICA
−🇧🇷 Brazil
World's #1 producer & exporter. Plants Sep-Dec, harvests Jan-May. Mato Grosso = biggest state. Competes directly with US for China sales.
CONAB Estimates →🇦🇷 Argentina
World's #3 producer, #1 meal/oil exporter. Major crusher. Plants Oct-Dec, harvests Mar-May. La Niña often causes drought.
Bolsa Estimates →🌤️ WEATHER
−🇺🇸 US Soybean Belt
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio. August pod-fill is critical growth stage.
Drought Monitor →🌎 South America
Brazil: Oct-Feb critical. Argentina: Dec-Feb critical. La Niña = dry Argentina.
ENSO Outlook →📊 USDA REPORTS
−⛽ BIODIESEL & RENEWABLE DIESEL
−Growing demand driver for soybean oil. RD capacity expanding rapidly. RIN values and low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS) drive demand. California, Oregon, Washington have strongest mandates.
📦 US SUPPLY & DEMAND
−📅 SEASONAL PATTERNS
−Typical Price Cycle
- Jan-Mar: S.A. harvest pressure (Brazil/Argentina)
- Apr-May: US planting, watching progress
- Jun-Jul: Weather premium builds → potential HIGH
- Aug: Pod fill critical - yield determined
- Sep-Oct: Harvest pressure → typical LOW
- Nov-Dec: China buying for SA gap, basis firms