AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #187 — ARCHIVE
↔ Mixed
Tuesday, September 15, 2026
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HOGS BREAK HARD; CATTLE HOLD; CHS DROPS $700M ON CRUSH

!Overnight Surprises: Feeder Cattle UP 1.7% / Lean Hogs DN 2.2%
THE ACTION

Fall calves unpriced: feeders at $343.70 and rising; a close above $345.00 is the signal to lock at least the first third.

Lean hogs dropped 2.2% to $79.72, their sharpest single-session decline in weeks, while cattle ran the other way: live at $222.20, feeders at $343.70, both posting solid gains on strong cash and technicals. Beans recovered a nickel to $13.00, corn slipped a penny and a half.

Corn$5.30
Soybeans$13.00
Wheat$7.17
THE NUMBER
$700M
CHS soybean crush plant, Evansville WI
CHS announced a new 700-million-dollar crush facility in Wisconsin today. That is a long-term structural demand commitment to US soybeans that the board has not priced yet.
DAILY QUOTE

“It's not the will to win that matters — everyone has that. It's the will to prepare to win that matters.”

Paul "Bear" Bryant
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T
Called soybeans down toward $12.8 ($12.945 when the call was made). It closed at $13.0025.
Miss. Beans ticked up a nickel to $13.00 instead of breaking lower; the line held and the thesis stays alive but unconfirmed.
CATTLE RUN; HOGS BREAKHIGH CONVICTION
  • Live cattle at $222.20 and feeders at $343.70 extended gains on strong cash trade, with AgWeb flagging fund interest returning to the long side after weeks of sitting out.
Cattle and feeders are running on supply tightness; hogs are on their own.
BEANS RECOVER; CORN FLATMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • Soybeans at $13.00 recovered a nickel after yesterday's crack; corn flat.
  • The CHS crush plant (see today's One Number) tells you commercial money is betting on US soybean supply for years out.
Beans steadied but $13.00 is not a clean recovery; needs a close above.
CRUDE HOLDS $102; SAUDI PIPELINE OUT WEEKSMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • WTI at $102.57 barely moved, but Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline -- hit by drone strikes earlier this month -- could take weeks to repair, cutting regional crude flows.
Two supply disruptions running simultaneously; harvest diesel costs are not easing before October.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • Wednesday, Senate sessionSenate Ag Committee farm bill meeting; a deal before Sep 30 or another extension. Watch for year-round E15 language.
  • Thursday 7:30 AM CTWeekly export sales; beans under 300K MT keeps the $13.00 recovery thin and fund-driven, not demand-driven.
  • Monday 3:00 PM CTCrop Progress; corn harvest pace above 10% sets harvest-pressure tone, below 5% means weather is the story.
OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.
POLICY
Senate Ag Committee Meets Wednesday on Farm Bill
The Senate Ag Committee reconvenes Wednesday as McConnell returns, with the Sep 30 extension deadline closing fast after the Aug 6 markup failed on party lines.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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LOCKED PRICE TABLE; feedstuffs.com; agweb.com; agri-pulse.com; oilprice.com; CME settlement data. · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT
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