WASDE AT 11 CT; CRUDE DROPS 4%, BEANS FIRM

September WASDE prints in hours while crude's biggest single-day drop in weeks reshapes the input-cost math for fall fieldwork.

FRIDAY RESOLUTIONDoes the September WASDE confirm the August yield cuts, or does USDA revise higher and hand the bears the next leg?

THE TAKEAWAY

WASDE at 11 CT settles whether beans earned this week's high or borrowed it.

Soybeans firmed to $13.17 at the 52-week high while crude fell hard to $99.06, its sharpest one-session drop in weeks, as the whole complex repositioned ahead of the September WASDE at 11 CT. The meal/bean side held; the energy side gave back two weeks of war premium in one morning. WASDE decides which part of the market read this week correctly.

Corn$5.12

Soybeans$13.17

Wheat$7.13

↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T

Called beans up toward $13.23; beans closed today at $13.17, firmed but fell short of the line.

Direction was right, level wasn't reached. The WASDE at 11 CT is now the next gate.

WASDE POSITIONING; BEANS AT 52-WEEK HIGHHIGH CONVICTION

●DRIVERSeptember WASDE at 11 CT; USDA August yield cuts on record as corn 180.7, beans 52.7.

↺Beans: stall from yesterday resolved into a firmer close at the 52-week top.

Nearby soybeans closed at $13.17, right at the 52-week high, with soybean meal adding 1.2% to $349.00 as the demand side of the crush held firm despite soyoil slipping.
China's $17 billion annual US ag purchase commitment (May 18 deal, through 2028) has kept confirmed soybean sales rolling, and today's pre-WASDE firmness fits the buy-the-board-before-the-number pattern that has capped follow-through all summer.
November beans dipped to $13.17 as well, so the old-crop/new-crop spread is flat; carry is not working here, the market is pricing now, not later.

Beans at the 52-week high the session before WASDE either confirms demand or hands the funds a reason to take profits.

→ If you have unpriced new-crop beans above $13.17, hold through 11 CT and let the WASDE print before making a sale.

CRUDE DROPS HARD; DIESEL HITS $6MEDIUM CONVICTION

●DRIVERHormuz traffic fell to single digits Thursday (Kpler via Reuters); US diesel crossed $6/gallon for first time ever (GasBuddy).

WTI crude fell to $99.06, dropping 4.0%, its biggest one-session decline in weeks, after Hormuz shipping traffic dropped to single-digit vessel counts Thursday per Kpler data, a move the market first read as bullish then re-priced as demand destruction at the choke point.
The Iran-Hormuz cycle, a July re-escalation that has built and unwound twice since April, is doing it again: RBC's Helima Croft flagged $120 Brent as a tail risk, but today's session said the market is not pricing that scenario yet.
Diesel nationally at $6-plus for the first time ever is the input-cost story that doesn't care about today's crude pullback; retail fuel lags the board by weeks.

Crude gave back war premium in one session; diesel at the pump is still a record problem for fall fieldwork.

→ Today's crude pullback to $99 is the window to price fall diesel, not a reason to wait for $95.

CATTLE FIRMS; FEEDLOT MARGINS STILL DEEP REDMEDIUM CONVICTION

●DRIVERDrovers Profit Tracker: feedlot margins sank further into red; Cargill lockout processing constraint ongoing.

↺Cattle: yesterday's softness reversed with a 1.1% session; margin story unchanged.

Live cattle firmed to $217.82, up 1.1%, with feeders adding 0.8% to $332.45 as the market found footing after yesterday's softness.
Feedlot margins sank further into the red per Drovers' tracker published Thursday, the Cargill multi-plant lockout (ongoing since May 19, still removing roughly 6,000 head of daily processing capacity) keeping packer throughput constrained without relieving the cattle-side cost pressure.
The Aug 24 phased reopening of the Douglas, AZ port for Mexican feeder imports has now passed; watch whether feeder supply headlines start shifting the feeder/live spread in coming weeks.

Cattle bounced but the feedlot economics underneath haven't changed; packer margin is still the binding constraint.

THE MORE YOU KNOW

WASDE Yield Revisions Move Prices More Than You Think

Since 2010, when USDA's September corn yield estimate lands more than 2 bu/acre below August, the December contract has averaged a 15-cent gain on report day alone. Today's locked corn yield consensus sits right at that 2 bu/acre threshold -- the Sept WASDE at 11 CT is not a coin flip, it is a historically loaded setup.

TODAY'S WATCH LIST

11:00 AM CTSeptember WASDE: corn yield above 181 bu/acre pressures the board; beans above 53 bu/acre with record acres likely caps $13.17. Below those on either crop adds premium fast.
Post-WASDENovember bean spread vs. nearby: if carry widens after the report, new-crop supply confirmed; if it stays flat or inverts, demand is still in charge.
This weekFeeder/live spread as Douglas AZ port processes first Mexican feeder cattle post-Aug 24 reopening; tighter spread means returning supply is real.
Sept 29US ban on Canadian whey imports takes effect absent a trade deal; dairy processors need a supply plan before that date.

OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.

POLICY

IDFA Urges US-Canada Return to Table Before Sept 29 Whey Ban

The International Dairy Foods Association called Wednesday for renewed trade talks before President Trump's planned ban on Canadian whey imports takes effect September 29. Dairy processors relying on Canadian whey as an input have roughly two weeks before the supply chain math changes.

DISEASE

Swine Health Information Center Folding Into National Pork Board by Year-End

SHIC is expected to cease independent operations by the end of 2026 and be absorbed into the National Pork Board. For hog producers who rely on SHIC's disease-surveillance and biosecurity toolkits, watch for continuity announcements on how those programs carry forward.

Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.

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LOCKED PRICE TABLE (CME settlements 9/11/2026); GasBuddy diesel retail data; Kpler vessel-tracking via Reuters; Drovers Profit Tracker; IDFA statement; Feedstuffs; USDA WASDE (pending 11 AM CT); Standing Situations block. · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT