AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #154 — ARCHIVE
↔ Mixed
Thursday, August 13, 2026
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MEAL RUNS 6%; EXPORT SALES AT 7:30 CT

Soybean meal's biggest session in months leads the complex higher ahead of the weekly export print.

THU UPDATEDoes the WASDE on Tuesday confirm a record or near-record corn yield, and does that break Dec corn below $4.50?
!Overnight Surprises: Soybean Meal UP 6.0% / Soybeans (nearby) UP 1.6%
THE TAKEAWAY

Meal ran, beans followed. Export sales this morning decide if the move has legs.

Soybean meal moved hard, up 6% to $325.00, the biggest day in the complex by a wide margin, and nearby beans followed to $11.65. The weekly export sales report prints at 7:30 CT this morning. If beans show up strong in that number, the meal move gets a fundamental leg; if sales disappoint, this was positioning ahead of the print and the board gives some back.

Corn$4.54
Soybeans$11.65
Wheat$6.55
THE NUMBER
122.5
Bcf/d projected 2026 US natural gas output
EIA's August STEO puts domestic gas production at a record 122.5 Bcf/d, up from 118.5 in 2025. That supply ceiling keeps nat gas pinned near $2.77 and limits any sustained input-cost relief from energy for producers running grain dryers this fall.
DAILY QUOTE

“Since the house is on fire let us warm ourselves.”

Italian Proverb
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T
Called wheat down toward below $6.33; wheat closed today at $6.55, well above the line.
Wheat went the wrong way and stayed there; WASDE didn't break the bull case.
MEAL RUNS; BEANS FIRMMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERUkrainian strike halts Novorossiysk grain terminal operations; European drought tightens global oilseed supply.
↺Beans: old-crop firmed again; meal added the real firepower today.
  • Soybean meal at $325.00 had its biggest session in months, up 6%, the kind of move that pulls everything in the complex; nearby beans lifted to $11.65, up 1.6%, doing exactly what they should when meal leads.
  • The catalyst is a combination: global grain supply concerns flagged by EarthDaily's crop intelligence team across drought-stressed European crops, and the Ukrainian drone strike on Novorossiysk that halted operations at key Russian Black Sea grain terminals overnight.
  • Nov beans at $11.85 barely moved, up just a quarter, which tells you this is old-crop positioning ahead of the 7:30 export print, not a new-crop demand story yet.
Meal ran on real news. Export sales this morning will say if beans hold the gain.
→ If you hold unpriced old-crop beans, $11.65 is working right now. Set a target at $11.74 and let the export print decide; a disappointing sales number pulls the board back fast.
WHEAT HOLDS ABOVE $6.55MEDIUM CONVICTION
  • Chicago wheat at $6.55 added 3 cents, extending the post-WASDE lift; the Novorossiysk strike (see Meal section) is the direct catalyst, with funds that covered shorts after Tuesday's WASDE now holding rather than re-selling.
  • The 52-week position sits at 74% from the low -- not stretched, not cheap. Watch whether the terminal closure extends past 48 hours; a quick restart caps this gain fast.
Short-covering plus a real news driver is a better combo than either alone. Needs export sales to confirm.
CATTLE SLIP ON CORN LIFTLOW CONVICTION
●DRIVERCorn ticked higher, pressuring feeder margins; JBS Q2 profitability pressured by cattle prices.
  • Live cattle at $230.50 and feeders at $346.30 both fell roughly 1%, with feeders leading lower as corn ticked higher and direct business stayed soft, per Brownfield's midday trade note.
  • The Cargill multi-plant lockout, ongoing since May 19 and still removing roughly 6,000 head of daily processing capacity, keeps the fed trade from resetting cleanly; processing-constrained dynamics mean a small corn move can rattle feeders disproportionately.
  • JBS reported Q2 revenue at a record but called profitability 'pressured' by cattle prices, which is the packer side of the same story: high cattle, tighter margins.
Cattle drifting lower on input-cost pressure, not demand; the lockout keeps price discovery cloudy.
CRUDE EASES ON DEMAND CUTSLOW CONVICTION
●DRIVEROPEC and IEA both cut 2026 oil demand outlooks, removing the demand-floor bid.
  • WTI crude at $81.50 fell 1.4% after both OPEC and the IEA cut their 2026 demand outlooks, the clearest macro weight on the session; the Iran-Hormuz cycle, a July re-escalation that has since cooled with the premium deflating into August, is no longer propping up the bid.
  • Diesel, not crude, stays the fall fieldwork input-cost story; watch the crack spread, not the crude handle, for harvest-season fuel planning.
Crude's demand-cut story is a macro signal, not a direct farm-input move today.
THE MORE YOU KNOW
The Black Sea Basis No One Prices Until a Strike
Novorossiysk handles roughly 25-30% of Russia's grain export volume. When it goes offline, even briefly, North African and Middle Eastern buyers have to find alternative supply fast. That scramble shows up in US soft red winter wheat basis within 48-72 hours. Today's 3-cent wheat gain may be the opening bid on that shift.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • 7:30 AM CT TodayUSDA Weekly Export Sales: soybean sales above 500K MT keeps the meal-led rally honest; below 300K MT says today's move was positioning, not demand.
  • OngoingNovorossiysk terminal damage assessment: extended closure beyond 48 hours adds wheat and corn export premium; a quick restart caps today's gains.
  • Aug 17-20Pro Farmer Crop Tour: corn yield samples below USDA's trend 183.0 bu/acre adds back the weather premium the Belt rain stripped in late July.
  • Aug 24Douglas, AZ phased feeder cattle import reopening: watch the feeder/live spread as that date closes; returning Mexican supply is already priced in the recent feeder break.
OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.
POLICY
USDA Land Values Study: Farmland Keeps Rising in 2026
USDA's NASS released its 2026 farmland values study showing US farm real estate values continued to climb. For producers managing debt loads or estate plans, a rising land base changes the collateral picture but doesn't fix margin compression at current grain prices.
TRADE
Novorossiysk Strike Disrupts Russian Black Sea Grain Exports
Ukraine's overnight drone-and-missile strike on Novorossiysk halted operations at Russia's largest Black Sea grain export hub. If the disruption extends more than a few days, Russian wheat and corn flow to North Africa and the Middle East tightens, supporting the US basis story.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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CBOT/CME locked prices; USDA EIA August STEO; Brownfield Ag News; OilPrice.com; Feedstuffs; BeefMagazine; TheFencePost; AGSIST standing situation files. · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT
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