AGSIST DAILY · ARCHIVE
Friday, September 18, 2026
▼ Bearish

CRUDE BREAKS 5.6%; BEANS WAIT FOR XI

!Overnight surprises: WTI Crude Oil DN 5.6% / Bitcoin UP 6.4% / Soybean Meal DN 3.0%
THE ACTION

Unpriced new-crop beans: hold through the weekend. A Monday settle above $13.10 is the first reason to price anything before the Xi summit.

Saudi Aramco's Gulf reroute -- started this week after the East-West pipeline shifted 60 million barrels back through the Persian Gulf -- knocked crude down 5.6% to **$95.47**, its biggest single-session drop in months. Relief, not shortage, is what the market priced Friday. Diesel harvest risk hasn't left; it just got cheaper to ignore.

Quotes as of 4:57 PM CT Fri · change vs Thu close · Yahoo Finance, delayed, not CME settlements
THE NUMBER
Record low
August cattle placements, per Drovers
Tightest feeder supply in the data series. The Cargill lockout is processing-constrained; this says the supply side is tightening too, which keeps the feeder market's floor intact.
DAILY QUOTE

“It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.”

George Soros
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T
Called soybeans up toward $13.42 ($13.2625 when the call was made). It closed at $13.03.
Miss; beans fell 7½ cents to $13.03, stopping 39 cents short of the line and closing at a session low.
CRUDE BREAKS; ENERGY LEADS LOWER
  • WTI fell to $95.47, a 5.6% drop, after Saudi Aramco confirmed the East-West pipeline reroute is moving roughly 60 million barrels back through the Persian Gulf, cutting Europe off from October deliveries but easing the supply-shortage selling pressure that ran crude higher all week.
Crude relief is real; diesel tightness for harvest is not over.
BEANS WAIT FOR XI
  • Soybeans fell to $13.03, down 7½ cents, as funds liquidated ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit where, per ASA, the 10% retaliatory soybean levy and China's purchase commitments are both on the table under China's $17 billion annual US ag purchase deal.
Beans are hostage to one calendar event; the price reflects that honestly.
CATTLE HOLD; FEEDERS SLIP
  • Live cattle firmed to $216.57, up 0.2%, a quiet session; the Cargill multi-plant lockout, ongoing since May 19 and still removing roughly 6,000 head of daily processing capacity, keeps the processing constraint in place and gives live cattle a floor.
Record-low placements backstop feeders even as the border reopens.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • Monday, Sep 21, 3:00 PM CTCrop Progress: corn harvest pace above 15% keeps harvest pressure on; below 10% limits it.
  • Thursday, Sep 24Trump-Xi summit: any soybean levy reduction is the catalyst beans have been pricing around all week.
  • Friday, Oct 9, approxSeptember WASDE: corn carryout below 1.6 billion bushels would be the next leg of the corn rally.
OUTSIDE THE PITNot moving prices today, but worth knowing.
POLICY
Farm Bill Clears Senate Ag After Weeks of Gridlock
The Senate Ag Committee advanced the 2026 Farm Bill 12-11 on a party-line vote Wednesday. Floor fights remain and the September 30 extension deadline is two weeks out.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, Certified Crop Adviser (CCA). Reply at sig@farmers1st.com. I read everything.
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USDA NASS, CME Group, NYMEX, OilPrice.com, Drovers, Feedstuffs, Agri-Pulse, Farm Policy News, EIA · Compiled 5:13 PM CT Fri
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