AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #190 — ARCHIVE
↔ Mixed
Friday, September 18, 2026
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CRUDE DROPS 5%; HARVEST PRESSURE BUILDS IN CORN

!Overnight Surprise: WTI Crude Oil DN 5.3%
THE ACTION

Unpriced new-crop corn: a close under $5.28 is the next decision point. Do not wait for harvest-low basis to eat the margin.

Crude oil fell hard Friday, its biggest single-session drop in weeks, as Saudi ship-to-ship transfer reports quelled export-disruption fears that had been bid into the market all month. WTI settled at $95.78, down $5.34 on the session. Corn held at $5.31 while basis season begins its predictable grind lower toward the mid-October harvest low.

Corn$5.31
Soybeans$13.08
Wheat$7.28
THE NUMBER
11 cents
average corn basis harvest-low vs. late-November
FarmDoc research published Friday: corn basis bottoms mid-October at harvest peak, averaging 11 cents under late-November levels. State-level lows reach 16 cents, deepest in Missouri.
DAILY QUOTE

“Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.”

Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T
Called soybeans up toward $13.42 ($13.2625 when the call was made). It closed at $13.08.
Miss; beans slipped to $13.08, a nickel below $13.42, and the export-sales catalyst didn't hold the line.
CRUDE LEADS LOWERHIGH CONVICTION
  • WTI fell to $95.78, its sharpest single-session drop in weeks, after Saudi ship-to-ship transfer reports eased fears the pipeline outage would cut export flow; the Iran-Hormuz cycle, a pattern of escalation and deflation running since July, just deflated again.
Saudi route fears priced in; now they're priced out. Watch the next headline.
GRAINS MIXED AT HARVEST DOORMEDIUM CONVICTION
  • Corn held at $5.31, essentially flat, but the FarmDoc basis data in today's One Number is the real story: the price held; the basis is about to do the damage.
Corn held the price; basis is about to do the damage. Time the sales accordingly.
CATTLE AND HOGS DRIFTLOW CONVICTION
  • Live cattle settled at $216.20, off 1.1%, and feeders fell to $334.95 at the same rate; the Cargill multi-plant lockout, ongoing since May 19, still holds roughly 6,000 head of daily processing capacity offline, keeping the packer-margin constraint in place.
Cattle weakness is packer-driven, not supply-driven. The reopening pace is the next variable.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • Monday 3:00 PM CTCrop Progress; corn harvest pace above 15% signals normal flow, below 10% adds weather-delay premium.
  • Thursday 7:30 AM CTExport Sales; soybeans under 300K MT keeps the chart, not demand, in charge of the move.
  • WeekendSaudi ship-to-ship transfer news; any disruption report puts $95.78 crude back in play immediately.
OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.
POLICY
Senate Ag Advances Farm Bill 12-11 on Party Lines
The Senate Agriculture Committee voted Friday to send the farm bill to the full Senate, all Republicans in favor, all Democrats opposed.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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CME Group settlement prices; USDA NASS; FarmDoc Daily (Illinois); OilPrice.com; FencePost; Feedstuffs; AGSIST locked price table 2026-09-18. · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT
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